Who do scouts view as the best player in the 2024 draft?
Scouts across the NFL vote on the best overall prospect, best defensive prospect and their favorite to watch. (One answer may surprise you.)
By Bob McGinn
History will be made Thursday but for all the wrong reasons if you’re a defensive coach in the National Football League.
Never in the 57-year history of the common draft has there been a draft in which at least two players on defense weren’t included among the top 10 picks. The inclusion of one defender this year would break the record, but it’s possible there won’t be any at all in the top 10.
Certainly, no defensive player will be summoned to the stage in Detroit among the first five choices. Perhaps one will go No. 8 to Atlanta, but beyond the Falcons there doesn’t appear to be a top-10 stopping spot for a defensive player.
The strength of the quarterback, wide receiver and tackle groups combined with rule changes designed to promote high-scoring games and what personnel men regard as a weak defensive draft has some football people wondering if defense really still does win championships.
“While you want to be a great defense you’ve got to be able to score,” a decision-maker for an AFC team said. “Quarterback, wideout, protection, those are the things that allow you to score. The rules are starting to really favor offenses. Teams in general are looking at their offense saying, ‘You’ve got keep up in today’s game.’”
Only once, the John Elway-led draft of 1983, has six quarterbacks been taken in the first round. That could be equaled Thursday. But even if it isn’t, a quarterback will be the No. 1 overall pick for the seventh time in 10 years.
“Without one, they feel naked,” the executive said. “If you don’t have one there’s kind of a desperation to try and at least get hope in that position. If there’s one you think is going to supply hope to your team, teams are doing that. The quarterback has always been important but it’s reached a fever level almost.”
We’ll get into the voting later in this story. But when 16 personnel men were polled to pick the best player in the draft all 16 votes went to players on offense.
“And it’s not just the top of the draft,” another AFC exec said. “It runs all the way through into the third day. I would say the defense is not that strong but there’s just so much emphasis on offense. The volume of offensive players just outweighs what’s out there defensively right now. The rules are set for the offense to succeed. The colleges are basically just playing basketball on grass.”
In the past 20 drafts, the number of quarterbacks (29) selected in the top 5 wasn’t far removed from the number of defensive players as a whole (38). Quarterbacks made up 47% of the top-5 picks on offense from 2004-2023.
Despite the eternal dominance of quarterbacks, the defense almost always could hold its own in the upper reaches of the draft with difference-making players at every layer. There have been at least three defensive players selected among the top 10 in 52 of the 57 common drafts. Just two years ago, the first five picks all played defense, just the second time that happened.
At least one defensive player has ended up in the top 5 in 52 of the 57 drafts. Fourteen times in those 57 years, the defense has had a majority of the top 10 selections.
For bad teams albeit with a quarterback, the prospect of being able to land a franchise defensive player after a forgettable season was comforting. You know, can’t miss prospects from the past 15 drafts such as defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, No. 2, 2010; edge rusher Von Miller, No. 2, 2011; edge rusher Khalil Mack, No. 6, 2014; edge rusher Joey Bosa, No. 3, and cornerback Jalen Ramsey, No. 5, 2016; edge rusher Myles Garrett, No. 1, 2017; edge rusher Nick Bosa, No. 2, 2019, and edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, No. 2, and cornerback Sauce Gardner, No. 4, 2022.
What the personnel men ruefully remember were the draft classes in which the first defender turned out to be a disappointment or even a bust. Those names included defensive end Tyson Jackson, No. 3, 2009; edge rusher Dion Jordan, No. 3, 2013, and edge rusher Dante Fowler, No. 3, 2015.
Just as scouts complained about the lack of star power on defense before the draft of 2023, the same refrain has been often heard this year.
“It’s a defensive draft with a lot of good players in the first round but there’s no alphas,” one personnel man said. “No Myles Garrett, no Khalil Mack. There’s none of those guys in this draft at any of the (defensive) positions.”
Over the last month a total of 16 executives in personnel were asked to choose one player in each of three categories: best player in the draft, best defensive player in the draft and the player in the draft that you most enjoyed scouting. The best defensive player vote was added this spring in anticipation that no one on defense would gain mention in the best player vote.
BEST PLAYER IN THE DRAFT REGARDLESS OF POSITION
6 — tie, Marvin Harrison, WR, Ohio State, and Caleb Williams, QB, Southern Cal.
2 — tie, Jayden Daniels, QB, Louisiana State, and Malik Nabers, WR, Louisiana State.
Last year, running back Bijan Robinson won this poll by gaining six of 18 votes. Quarterback Bryce Young, the No. 1 overall pick, finished fourth with 2 ½ votes.
“I think Caleb has the best chance to bust,” an AFC personnel man said. “But he also has the best chance to be freakin’ special.”
BEST DEFENSIVE PLAYER IN THE DRAFT
9 — Dallas Turner, edge, Alabama.
2 — tie, Laiatu Latu, edge, UCLA, and Byron Murphy, DT, Texas.
1 — tie, Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama; Johnny Newton, DT, Illinois, and Jared Verse, edge, Florida State.
After winning in a runaway, Turner now will aim for the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award that went to Houston’s Will Anderson, his teammate with the Crimson Tide in 2021-’22.
“It’s not a great defensive headliner draft,” said one scout. “They are all guys that are good players but not the ones you’re going, ‘Oh, man, that’s a top-5 lock.’”
FAVORITE PLAYER TO SCOUT IN THE DRAFT
3 — Jayden Daniels, QB, Louisiana State.
2 — tie, Byron Murphy, DT, Texas, and Malik Nabers, WR, Louisiana State.
1 ½ — Rome Odunze, WR, Washington.
1 — tie, Joe Alt, T, Notre Dame; Cooper DeJean, CB-S, Iowa; Braden Fiske, DT, Florida State; JC Latham, T, Alabama; Michael Penix, QB, Washington; Chop Robinson, edge, Penn State, and Mike Sainristil, CB, Michigan.
One-half – Ja’Lynn Polk, WR, Washington.
It was noteworthy that Daniels led the vote whereas Caleb Williams wasn’t one of the 12 players receiving mention.
“He’s No. 2 (at quarterback) — that was from the second I watched him,” one scout said of Daniels. “I compared him a little more to Lamar (Jackson) than (Patrick) Mahomes. When he takes off, kind of like Lamar, it’s 60 yards.”
Bob McGinn’s nine-part draft series:
Part 1, WR/TE: Hall of Fame talent at the top, then (many) questions
Part 3, QB: Gap between Caleb Williams & Jayden Daniels? Closer than you think...
Features…
‘Weapon:’ Why Jaylen Wright is the best running back in the draft
'Built different:' Why David White Jr. is this year's WR steal
Halfsies? Who the guy that goes Rome/Polk? Wouldn't trust him, Bob!