Part 9, ST: New kickoff rule is a game-changer
There were 2,000 plays that didn't matter in 2023. That will change in 2024. As for Worthy? “Every time he touches the ball as a punt returner or receiver it’s a potential touchdown," one scout says.
This is the 40th year that Bob McGinn has written his NFL Draft Series. Previously, it appeared in the Green Bay Press-Gazette (1985-’91), the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (1992-’17), BobMcGinnFootball (2018-’19), The Athletic (2020-’21) and GoLongTD.com (2022-’24). Until 2014, many personnel people were quoted by name. The series reluctantly adopted an all-anonymous format in 2015 at the request of most scouts.
By Bob McGinn
It will take at least the first month of the regular season before the effects of the new NFL hybrid kickoff rule can be ascertained.
But it should be obvious that the creative juices of the league’s special-teams coordinators and assistants have been flowing since the measure was passed on March 26.
In interviews with three seasoned special-teams coaches, change appears inevitable when it comes to requirements for kickoff returners and kickers.
“It will be a big deal,” an AFC coach said. “A year ago, there were 1,900 touchbacks and 90 fair catches. Almost 2,000 plays that didn’t matter. With the new rule, the return rate will pop up. It was at 20%; it’ll pop up somewhere in the high 60s to low 70s.”
In 2023, the touchback rate on kickoffs was 74.6%. The majority of the touchbacks came on booming kicks that went through the end zone.
Under the NFL rules, the offense will take over at its 35 yard-line rather than the 30 on boots that travel into the end zone on the fly. Kickoffs will be booted from the 35 but only the kicker and the two allowable returners are allowed to move before the ball is touched or hits the ground.
“Hang time doesn’t mean anything anymore,” the coach said. “I’ve seen many kickers who, and there are several this year, that have really good field-goal range but they can’t kick off. In the past, that obviously was a big negative. I don’t think it’s as big a negative this year as it once was.”
Instead, kickers will be asked to land the ball between the 20 and the goal line with whatever height they choose.
“It will all be about placement now, about distance control,” said the coach. “For some of these kickers it will be like a punter hitting a punt from the 50. They still have to hit the ball pretty hard but they really need to control the distance.
“They’ll try to work the ball inside the 5. Maybe some guys hang it up a little bit different. Maybe some guys just pop it up down there to the 5.”
If the ball lands short of the 20 it’s treated like a ball kicked out of bounds and the offense starts from the 40.
“They’re still going to need the ability to kick off (deep),” he said. “Let’s face it. The kickoff touchback line was moved up five yards to the 30 (from the discussed 35). So there will be times we elect to hit a touchback.”
The elimination of fair catches on kickoff returns also will factor in the dramatic increase of runbacks. Last season, just two players — Green Bay’s Keisean Nixon (30) and the New York Jets’ Xavier Gipson (22) — met the minimum qualifying standard for kickoff returns. Ten years ago, there were 23 specialists who hit the qualifying standard.
One was Cordarrelle Patterson, who at the time was a rookie wide receiver for the Minnesota Vikings. One of the greatest kickoff return men in NFL history, Patterson had been out of work since Feb. 19 after being cut by the Atlanta Falcons. On the same day the radical kickoff change was enacted the Pittsburgh Steelers signed Patterson to a two-year, $6 million deal ($1.9M guaranteed).
“They were trying to get out in front of it,” said one coach.
Patterson (6-2, 232) almost always has been the brawniest practitioner of kickoff returning. Now, with the changes, there is speculation that heavier players, specifically running backs, might be more in demand.
“I do think you want physical size to be able to run through some arm tackles,” said one coach. “What’s going to make it difficult for returners is every ball that goes in the end zone must be downed. Back to the way it used to be. You have to catch the ball and down the ball for it to be a touchback.”
With 10 defenders lined up at the opposing 40, the so-called “landing zone” will become crowded fast once the ball hits down or is fielded.
“They have to handle the ball, pick it up and go,” another AFC coach said. “You’re going to have a lot of bodies in a very short area not far from where you handle the ball. I could envision line-drive type kicks, kind of a dirty ball, but you need a kick that has to be fielded. I’m thinking the guy that can field it and explode is the guy you want.”
A third AFC coach said the value of having a capable kickoff returner certainly has risen.
“What you look for in a kickoff returner won’t change a whole lot,” he said. “You still look for that player that has the skill set to make plays on his own and doesn’t need a lot of help to do it.
“The critical factors for a kickoff returner might vary based on the schemes a team uses. I believe the key to a returner’s success is going to be the techniques his blockers are taught in their new alignment.”
Scouts across the NFL break down the kickers, punters, returners and, yes, even the long-snappers below.
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Part 1, WR/TE: Hall of Fame talent at the top, then (many) questions
Part 2, OL: Can this 'long-armed Tyrannosaurus Rex' brawl?
Part 3, QB: Gap between Caleb Williams & Jayden Daniels? Closer than you think...
Part 4, RB: Like father, like son?
Part 5, DL: Tale of two very different Texas big men
Part 6, Edge: Choose your fighter
Part 7, LB: Save the Linebackers
Part 8, DB: Film vs. 40 debate rages
KICKERS
1 CAM LITTLE, Arkansas (6-1, 170, no 40, Round 5): Third-year junior, third-year starter. Won’t be 21 until August. “His best days are ahead of him,” one special-teams coach said. “He’s a little scrawny 20-year-old guy that’s really good at what he does. Maybe he can get up to 185 (pounds).” Made 53 of 64 field-goal attempts for 82.8%, including 70% from 40-plus and 80% on what were categorized as “clutch” kicks. “Very confident,” said the coach. “He’s physically immature but he’s very powerful. This kid is impressive.” Made seven 50-plus kicks in three seasons, including four in 2023. Career long was 56. Never missed on 129 extra-point tries. From Moore, Okla.