Bob McGinn's first-round analysis: Vikings' patience pays off
Bob McGinn's first-round analysis: Vikings' patience pays off
Jim Harbaugh shows he is the man in charge. What is Atlanta thinking? And Troy Fautanu may be the steal of the first round. All of McGinn's Day 1 musings inside.
By Bob McGinn
Playing defense really is optional in the National Football League.
The first night of the draft made that abundantly clear when 72% of the players selected in the first round, 23 of 32, came from the offensive side of the ball.
In the 57-year history of the NFL common draft there had always been at least two defensive players taken in the first 10 picks. On Thursday night, the first defender went No. 15.
Seven wide receivers went in the first round, the most in 20 years. Six quarterbacks went, tying a record established 41 years ago. Nine offensive linemen went, tying the record set in 2013 and 2022.
Not even the fact just one tight end and no running backs were first-round picks could diminish the avalanche of offense.
For just the second time, no linebacker was picked in the first round. There weren’t any safeties, either, for the fourth time in five years. The lonely nine-man contingent on defense included ordinary numbers at edge rusher (four), cornerback (three) and defensive line (two).
What does it mean? With interest at an all-time high, the league’s emphasis on points and rules favoring offense will only continue. It has been a trickle-up effect, with all that wild scoring in the college game a decade or so ago now cemented in the pro game.
Traditionalists can grouse about the manner in which the game is played in the 2020’s. The NFL sees all-time television ratings, exploding revenue and, in downtown Detroit, the massive crowd for opening night.
That’s not to say all those draft picks on offense will flourish. The odds say at least half will be disappointments. But the owners that witnessed their teams pick offense Thursday night at least can say that’s where the game is now and probably will be in the future.
— The NFC North tied for the second-best record among the eight divisions last year, and after Thursday night the race next season became even more intriguing.
Detroit, having cut the arrested cornerback Cam Sutton in the off-season, traded up five slots with Dallas to move ahead of Green Bay and select Terrion Arnold, the No. 1 corner in my poll of scouts. Arnold probably will start alongside ex-Buccaneer Carlton Davis, filling the one spot that was a void in the Lions’ lineup. Amik Robertson, Emmanuel Moseley and Kindle Vildor provide effective depth.
The Packers, picking No. 25, were armed with two picks in the second round and two picks in the third round. They stood pat and selected tackle-guard Jordan Morgan; Duke guard-center-tackle Graham Barton went No. 26 to Tampa Bay. The situation was reminiscent of the second round in 2021 when the Packers took center Josh Myers at No. 62 before the Chiefs drafted center Creed Humphrey, an All-Pro, at No. 63.
With a void at free safety and weakness at corner, the Packers either didn’t try or weren’t able to trade up into the bottom of the first for players like cornerback-safety Cooper DeJean, cornerback Nate Wiggins (who went No. 30) or cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry.
Picking at No. 41 and No. 58 in the second round Friday night, the Packers might trade up for a corner knowing they could always get a competent safety later.
Morgan, a finesse player, played left tackle only for five years at Arizona but some scouts viewed him as an easy fit at guard, where the loss of Jon Runyan leaves Sean Rhyan as the nominal starter on the right side.
Meanwhile, Caleb Williams became the latest in the line of potential quarterbacking saviors in Chicago. Rather than draft left tackle Olu Fashanu at No. 9, a player Williams lobbied for, the Bears chose wide receiver Rome Odunze. With stalwarts DJ Moore outside and Keenan Allen in the slot, Odunze can break in easily as the No. 3 outside in a potentially explosive attack that also includes speedy backs D’Andre Swift and Khalil Herbert plus tight end Cole Kmet.
Odunze comes across as the classiest of acts. He should be good. Very good.
The best move made by the Vikings was not panicking. J.J. McCarthy definitely wasn’t worth a costly trade from their No. 11 rung into single digits. When McCarthy dropped to No. 10, the Vikings moved one slot at a reasonable price and took him.
For months, I’ve said that the best thing for McCarthy was a return to Michigan, and I’m not saying that because I’m a graduate of that school. He comes across as naïve, has almost no touch and benefited more than anyone from a wonderful coaching staff and some remarkable breaks.
Minnesota, however, might be a good fit for McCarthy. Kevin O’Connell won two games with Josh Dobbs and coaxed semi-respectable performance from Nick Mullens after Kirk Cousins blew his Achilles at mid-season.
Sam Darnold and Mullens remain on the depth chart, but unfortunately for McCarthy they’re really not good enough. It means McCarthy will be starting before he’s ready. O’Connell’s task getting McCarthy prepared to be a rookie starter in a rugged division with an impatient fan base will require skill and patience.
— What were the Falcons doing drafting Michael Penix at No. 8?
The assumption is that Cousins will be ready. It’s why they paid him $180 million over four years, with $90 million guaranteed.
Cousins will turn 36 before the start of the season. Let’s say he stays healthy, produces and plays four more years. Penix, who has had half a dozen surgeries, would be 28 in 2028 when Cousins’ deal is up.
— The Giants have Daniel Jones, Drew Lock and Tommy DeVito. Sitting at No. 6, they had three quarterback options available but opted for wide receiver Malik Nabers.
Maybe they didn’t like Penix, McCarthy or Bo Nix. For the Giants’ decision-makers, they’ll either be right or they’ll be gone.
— The Patriots identify Eliot Wolf, 42, as their director of scouting. In truth, it’s an audition of sorts for the top front-office job, which in most organizations means general manager.
Drafting at No. 3 and with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, Wolf selected quarterback Drake Maye.
It was a distinct gamble, one not unlike what his father, Ron, attempted in February 1992 by trading a first-round pick for Brett Favre, a second-round choice by Atlanta the year before. Wolf has said Favre basically paved his way to the Hall of Fame.
In some ways, Maye and Favre are alike. They’re country bumpkins from down south with athletic families and/or parents and big arms.
— For me, the team that had the best draft was Washington. LSU’s Jayden Daniels is that good. I can’t forget how remarkably well he stacked up against the last 10 top-of-the-draft quarterbacks in my pre-draft poll of personnel people.
— Almost nothing that I was told by scouts suggested that Nix was a legitimate first-round choice. Denver, which drafted him No. 12, might be the right fit.
Coach Sean Payton made Drew Brees a Hall of Famer with his voluminous screen and intermediate passing game. Nix’s arm is questionable, to say the least, but Brees didn’t have a gun, either. Maybe Payton can work with Nix.
— The Jets drafted tackle Olu Fashanu at No. 11 in an attempt to keep 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers upright. Given his history of Achilles, collarbone, knee, calf and brain injuries, odds are Rodgers’ 20th season also will be short-lived.
With Fashanu, the Jets obtained necessary reinforcement at tackle, where ex-Cowboy Tyron Smith and ex-Raven Morgan Moses, both 33, are the starters.
— Jim Harbaugh is thought to have the power with the Chargers that he didn’t have as coach of the 49ers from 2010-’13. GM Trent Baalke made the picks for the Harbaugh-coached teams that went 49-22-1.
On Thursday, Harbaugh used the No. 5 pick on tackle Joe Alt. Together with Rashawn Slater, the Chargers’ talented left tackle, Harbaugh has the makings of a front that can play power football as he did at Stanford, in San Francisco and for much of his nine-year tenure at Michigan.
Notably, the Niners never took an offensive lineman in the first two rounds when Harbaugh was working under Baalke.
— I sat in Row 18 last September watching Washington crush Michigan State in East Lansing. It was an aerial circus led by Penix to Odunze as the Huskies won in a rout.
Some of my attention, however, was on No. 55, Troy Fautanu, the left tackle. As much as I came away liking his athleticism, aggressiveness and meanness, it paled in comparison to the evaluation of scouts. Nobody had a bad word to say about him. That’s rare.
The Steelers getting Fautanu at No. 20 might turn out to be the steal of the night.
— Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has been ripped for authoring an impotent off-season. Picking 29th, his decision to take tackle Tyler Guyton qualified as a major gamble.
Jones made a similar move two years ago when he used the 24th choice on Tulsa’s Tyler Smith, who played well at guard and will start at left tackle for the departed Tyron Smith.
Tyler Smith was the seventh O-lineman taken whereas Guyton was the ninth. If Guyton turns out to be as good as Smith it will be a mark of outstanding drafting by Jones and Will McClay, his personnel chief.
— As the No. 4 pick, Marvin Harrison was the highest drafted wide receiver since Amari Cooper also went No. 4 in 2015. The last wideout taken in the first three picks was Calvin Johnson at No. 2 in 2007.
— Watching all the scouts in their draft rooms attired in dress clothes made me smile. My, how times change.
These guys live in jeans, sweats and team gear. Some chew tobacco. Many put on excess poundage from a life lived on the road grabbing food as they go. Before the NFL became heavily corporate and revenues soared beyond belief, draft day was a tad more casual. Nobody had a coat and tie on. At their core, all these guys, even those with director designations/titles, are scouts.
In the early-to-mid 1980s, I can recall when Dick Corrick would make his way from the Packers’ war room to the locker room for informal interviews with reporters. As director of player personnel under Bart Starr and later Forrest Gregg, Corrick’s reaction under the pressure cooker of draft day was reflected by his armpits.
Corrick, in a close-fitting, button-down shirt, laughed when someone pointed out the sweat marks had dripped all the way down to his belt. Corrick chalked them up as an occupational hazard before heading back to make another pick in what at the time was a two-day, 12-round draft.
Hiding the inevitable sweat stains is one benefit of wearing a coat.
— For me, the best modern draft was 2020 when it was held virtually because of the pandemic. If you remember, the networks had hookups in locations, usually homes, of players expected to be taken early.
It was refreshing to see that spontaneous reaction of the player/family. It also eliminated the tiresome bro hugs involving Roger Goodell and the draftee.
— From my standpoint, the two biggest surprises were Nix going No. 12 and wide receiver Ricky Pearsall going No. 31.
In no particular order, six players surprised me the most by not making the first round.
WR Keon Coleman: It’s hard to overcome a 4.59 40 time no matter how big and how skilled you aer.
WR Adonai Mitchell: A number of scouts expressed considerable reservations about his makeup and discipline.
C Jackson Powers-Johnson: Yes, he won the Rimington Award as the nation’s top center, but those things mean next to nothing in the evaluation process. He started for just one year, he has had injuries and his personality concerned some teams.
DT Johnny Newton: He is the best 3-technique. He’s also 6-1 ½ and has 32 3/8-inch arms.
CB-S Cooper DeJean: He’s a ball guy and he’s versatile. But teams are funny in that they much prefer knowing for sure what’s a player’s position. Probably half the league boarded him at cornerback, probably half at safety. Plus, he’s coming off a fractured fibula. Moreover, he played in what is almost exclusively a zone system that left some teams unsure or doubtful about his ability to play man coverage.
CB Kool-Aid McKinstry: He’s smart, fairly steady and possesses good size. He also ran 4.52 and is an average athlete.
I am often perplexed by the Packer’s 1st round choices.
If the Packers thought that highly of DeJean--whom Packer fans have had an unreasonable or unfair crush on--they wouldn't have hesitated picking him with their first. Certainly, they would have given up a 5th or so to trade up and get him on day 2 before the Eagles. Morgan is seen as more versatile than Barton and probably has higher ceiling/lower floor, which is what Gutes does in round 1. If Barton turns out to be a Pro Bowl center but Morgan turns out to be a very good left tackle, who wins?