Why the Green Bay Packers, title contenders, got this right

Also inside: The Atlanta Falcons' $100 million gamble. Pittsburgh acquires a (rusting) QB. Joe Schoen pivots. Antonio Pierce's "Mahomes Rules" gets a boost, but he still needs Isiah Thomas.

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March madness commenced at high noon. Deals lit up phones. The Green Bay Packers, an organization that historically rewires its circadian rhythms for a deep sleep on Day 1 of free agency, entered the fray. Legal tampering, this year, was not treated as a rare fungal disease bound to leave welts all over the body.

First, the Packers signed running back Josh Jacobs to a four-year, $48 million contract.

Next, safety Xavier McKinney inked a four-year, $68 million contract.

When we asked GM Brian Gutekunst at the NFL Combine how viewing this team as a Super Bowl contender would guide his decision-making, he balked. “Not a lot,” he said, adding that he didn’t want to put expectations on the team. Actions always speak loudest. These moves suggest the Packers absolutely do view 2024 as an opportunity to win it all. Which is precisely how they should conduct business after coming within one or two plays of an NFC Championship appearance.  

Of course, in the same four-hour period, the Packers also released two players with such gravitas they felt compelled to release a statement with quotes from both the GM and head coach. One goodbye was expected. Left tackle David Bakhtiari had a social-media post and video ready to roll. Frank Sinatra’s “My Way” played to clips of the left tackle burying defenders, acting in Pitch Perfect 2 and engaging in a beer-chugging contest with his good buddy, Aaron Rodgers.

Meanwhile, the other player let go didn’t have time to hire a video editor.

The outright release of Aaron Jones — distinguished human and running back — took a weed-whacker to the emotional heartstrings of fans.

March 11, 2024 will be remembered as a day that swiftly reshaped the Packers. Gutekunst was bold. Again. And, goshdangit, we vowed not to bring up his name all offseason. But as these transactions went down, I could not help but think back to one of the most preposterous press conferences in recent memory. When Aaron Rodgers finally quit holding the franchise hostage, he re-assumed his bully pulpit and made far more farcical statements than he’s ever uttered on a podcast.

He lamented his lack of inclusion in free-agent decisions, saying that’s “never happened in my career.”

“You know, I’ve trained with a number of NFL guys,” he said. “Most of my career, in the offseasons, my agency Athletes First has had a number of high draft picks over the years. I’ve tried to pass along information and it hasn’t really been… used, shall we say? So, I wanted to offer my services as a recruiter. I think we can all understand, Green Bay isn’t a huge vacation destination. People are coming here to play with me. To play with our team and knowing that they could win a championship here. And the fact that I haven’t been used in those discussions was one I wanted to change moving forward. I felt like based on my years, the way I can still play, that should be a natural part of the conversation.”

Turns out, Green Bay is a perfectly fine destination for high-end free agents. Players around the NFL have been raving about Jordan Love on the public airwaves since the season ended. The opportunity to play for one of the league’s best young quarterbacks is a major selling point.

Jacobs was arguably the best running back on the market. He actively chose Green Bay.

McKinney was arguably the best safety on the market. He chose Green Bay.

It’s not a shock. If you’ve got a rising star at the most important position in sports, players stop worrying about bitter wind chill and lake-effect storms. The Buffalo Bills lured a slew of free agents as Josh Allen ascended to stardom.

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Ex-Packers loved the fact that Rodgers blasted the Packers for low-balling veterans at the end of their career. Granted, Ted Thompson and Gutekunst haven’t been perfect. But even judging Rodgers’ point off the names he used himself during that presser — Charles Woodson, Jordy Nelson, Julius Peppers, Clay Matthews, Randall Cobb, James Jones, John Kuhn, Brett Goode, T.J. Lang, Bryan Bulaga, Casey Hayward, Micah Hyde — their batting average is solid. It’s smart for any general manager to say goodbye a year too early, rather than a year too late. That’s how countless teams descend into salary-cap hell and wind up having to push millions of dollars into the future. Who knew the former four-time MVP was such an advocate of pork-barrel spending?

Nor has Rodgers, Assistant GM, worked out for the New York Jets.

Which brings us to Jones.  

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Showing “Showtyme” the door when talks broke down doesn’t seem to make much sense based off his torrid finish to the 2023 season. He battled a hamstring injury and a sprained MCL, got healthy at the perfect time and exploded for five straight 100-yard games. Nobody in the history of the franchise — not Paul Hornung, Jim Taylor, Jim Brockington or Ahman Green — ever achieved this feat. In three of those games, Jones eclipsed six yards per carry.

He did not resemble a back in decline, at all.

He was the team’s most dynamic weapon.

He’s also a 29-year-old running back who missed six games last season. Exactly three years and two months older than Jacobs.

This is a cold business. One year after slashing his salary by $5 million, the Packers asked Jones to take a 50 percent pay cut, per The Athletic. Considering he has done everything right on and off the field, maybe Gutekunst should’ve made an exception, crossed his fingers and said a few prayers to the Packers gods for good health in 2024. A GM harboring realistic title hopes cannot take this chance. Jacobs struggled behind a hideous Las Vegas Raiders offensive line in 2023, yet did lead the NFL in rushing in 2022 with 1,653 yards on 340 carries with 12 touchdowns.

He’s a reliable receiver, too. Key in Matt LaFleur’s offense, which was finally unveiled in full last season.

This contract isn’t quite what it seems, either. As Pro Football Talk notes, Jacobs’ deal is essentially a one-year pact worth $13.7 million with three one-year options, again befitting of a team eyeing a championship in the present. As long as Jacobs resembles a top-tier back in his prime, Gutekunst can let the contract play out.

Fully expect the Packers to add a back in the draft, too.

For the first time in any of our lives, the Packers are following a Detroit Lions blueprint. Twelve months ago, the Lions endured a similar emotional roller-coaster to reshape their backfield. They let the beloved Jamaal Williams walk, signed David Montgomery and took plenty of shrapnel from fans who loved watching Williams dance in the end zone. To many, this swap didn’t make sense. Williams was fresh off a 1,066-yard, 17-touchdown season. GM Brad Holmes and head coach Dan Campbell were proven prophetic. Whereas Williams’ yards per carry tanked to 2.9 in New Orleans, Montgomery flourished. Two years younger, the power back smashed defenses for 1,015 yards on 219 attempts (4.6 avg.) with 13 touchdowns. He was complemented by explosive rookie Jahmyr Gibbs (182-945-10).

The running game was a strength for the Lions in 2022 — Williams and D’Andre Swift were a good 1-2 punch. In 2023, the Lions dared themselves to be great via Montgomery and Gibbs and came within a fourth-down conversion of the Super Bowl.

Green Bay likely knows short-term pain comes with a major potential payoff.

If any lessons were learned from the Rodgers breakup, it’s that a hard goodbye is often for the best.

Safety was this team’s No. 1 need. And in theory, McKinney is exactly what the Packers have been missing on the back end. The 24-year-old has missed only 7.8 percent of his tackle attempts over his career, per PFF, which ranks 11th among 89 safeties with at least 100 tackles over the last four seasons. He makes plays on the ball, too. In his two full seasons, 2021 and 2023, McKinney totaled eight interceptions and 21 passes defensed. Give Rodgers this much. Dull safety play marred his prime Packers years. Thompson was wrong to believe in the likes of M.D. Jennings and Jerron McMillian on the back-end. Morgan Burnett was rock solid but rarely a playmaker. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix was a pull of the slot machine many games.

If McKinney gets to an NFC title game, maybe he can atone for Clinton-Dix misjudging Russell Wilson’s wounded duck of a 2-point prayer and Burnett’s fateful slide in that 2014 Seattle nightmare.

The decisions this day move the Packers closer toward reaching that game again.

One rivalry has more bite this season, too.

Jones, seeking revenge, will sign a one-year contract with the Minnesota Vikings.

Kirk-a-palooza

Kirk Cousins is the American dream. The man has a skill and financially leverages that skill better than anybody ever has at quarterback.  

He arrived as the eighth quarterback selected in his class, 102nd overall. A Big Ten quarterback lacking a discernible elite trait. RGIII vanquished. Cousins got his chance… excelled… and soon proved his greatest gift was making bank.

By design, NFL players have hardly any leverage. Most of the contracts reported on Monday are fluffed with funny money. Teams almost always give themselves an escape hatch. Cousins may be nicer than your neighborhood librarian but never, ever gives his team such a luxury. After leading the Washington Redskins to a playoff berth in 2015, Cousins flipped the script. Repeatedly. In ’16, he played on a $19.9 million franchise tag and threw for 4,917 yards, 25 touchdowns. In ’17, he was content playing on the tag again. Making $23.9 million, he threw for 4,093 yards and 27 scores through a 7-9 season. A calculated gamble on himself that allowed Cousins to do something unheard of for a Top 15 quarterback: enter unrestricted free agency. With agent Mike McCartney, he made history. His three-year, $84 million contract with the Vikings became the first multi-year, fully guaranteed deal for a quarterback in NFL history. It also made him the richest player ever.

Through his six years with the Vikings, he maximized his worth at every turn.

When the team’s Super Bowl-contending core began to rot, they doubled down on Cousins.

When Kevin O’Connell took over, he wanted Cousins as his QB. And right up to tearing his Achilles at Lambeau Field on Oct. 29, Cousins played the best ball of his life in this offense. He also had the luxury of star Justin Jefferson, 24, at wide receiver. And ultra-talented No. 2 and No. 3 receiving options in Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. And two sturdy tackles. And, finally, continuity at playcaller. Seven in seven years got old.

But, oh. You thought Cousins would take a hometown discount?

Ha!

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Off to the Atlanta Falcons goes the NFL’s best businessman to the tune of $180 million over four years. The $100 million in guarantees increases his career earnings to $330 million. All it takes is two suitors for the price to go up, up, up. The Vikings’ genuine interest was the key driver. After seeing Brock Purdy, Jared Goff, Jordan Love and Baker Mayfield all reach the divisional round of the playoffs, why wouldn’t the Vikings make a juicy offer? Their only problem was that another team was willing to go higher. You heard from that team’s GM last week. It’s now obvious that Terry Fontenot was prepared to walk over hot coals to secure Cousins because the Falcons view their roster as one ready to win now.

This all-in approach starts at the top, too.

The Falcons could’ve broken the bank last offseason when Lamar Jackson was free to negotiate with teams. Instead, they trusted in Arthur Smith’s vision of a Desmond Ridder-led, “position-less” offense. This time, Arthur Blank was an 81-year-old owner fully prepared to walk over those same coals with his GM. He gave the football department a green light to spend whatever’s necessary.

Said Fontenot: “If we can tell him, ‘Hey, look, these Skittles cost a million dollars a bag, but if we get these Skittles, we’re going to be able to win a lot this year,’ he’s going to say, ‘Go get a box of Skittles and here’s some money.’”

For Cousins, it was a perfect storm. The Vikings wanted Cousins juuuust enough to drive his price up for a team, the Falcons, that was officially done being patient with Ridders and Mariotas and Heinickes. If Cousins starts to break down, Atlanta could theoretically cut ties after two years.

This is as all-in as contracts get in the NFL.

But was it smart?

We were one year premature on these Falcons, but let’s say… yes. Cautiously. Because this is the NFC.

An offense full of weapons still on their rookie deals — Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts — is now coordinated by Zac Robinson, a coach schooled under Sean McVay. Out is the playcaller taking a match to your fantasy football team. With the eighth overall pick, Atlanta may also have a shot at Washington’s Rome Odunze or LSU’s Malik Nabers. On Tuesday, Fontenot signed free agent Darnell Mooney. Inside the dome, we should expect fireworks. Cousins is familiar with this scheme that attacks the entire field. According to TruMedia, the Falcons used 11 personnel an NFL-low 16.8 percent of the time in 2023. The Rams deployed such one-back, one-tight end, three-wide receiver sets 94.5 percent of the time.

Cousins isn’t athletic, but that’s fine. The Falcons boast a Top 5 offensive line.

Defensive personnel is another story, but new head coach Raheem Morris is one the best minds on that side of the ball. It’s hard to imagine Atlanta being any worse than middle of the pack.

Cousins is our generation’s grandest quarterback enigma. One week, he’s leading the Vikings to a stunning 33-30 overtime comeback win over the Buffalo Bills. The next, he’s getting shellacked by the Dallas Cowboys, 40-3. The Vikings start the next season 1-4, lose Jefferson to injury and right when it appears The End is near for Cousins? Of course, he torches the eventual NFC Champs in primetime for 378 yards on 35 of 45 passing with two touchdowns. Of course, he beats up this team’s archenemy, the Green Bay Packers for 274 yards and two scores.

Before, you know, tearing his Achilles and complicating the debate all over again.

Walk into a bar and you’ll meet 18 people with 18 Kirk Cousins opinions.

There’s a good a chance the Falcons know this quarterback only has two good seasons left. But when the alternative is 8-9 irrelevance or a teardown, betting on Cousins being the next Matthew Stafford is worth $100 million.

Steelers Country, let’s weld

Here’s a mainstream take I cannot square. Ad nauseam, we hear there’s “No downside!” to signing Russell Wilson on a one-year deal worth the vet minimum at $1.21 million.

Huh?

At full throat, the Denver Broncos screamed to the NFL how much they loathed Wilson. They’d rather lose $85 million — let’s repeat: EIGHTY-FIVE MILLION DOLLARS — than even have Wilson in their building. This is a historic dead-cap total, more than the previous two highs combined: Matt Ryan ($40.53 million) and Aaron Rodgers ($40.31 million).

We’re already hearing glowing reports of Wilson’s conversations with Mike Tomlin. Etc, etc.

This is as damning as red flags get at quarterback. If anyone was going to fix Wilson at this point of his career, it was Sean Payton. He squeezed 3,070 yards and 26 touchdowns out of the quarterback but Wilson has not aged like Cousins. Unlike Drew Brees, he still needs to move around to make plays downfield. Payton wasn’t able to run his offense in full. You can follow Pittsburgh’s logic in pairing a turnover-averse, experienced quarterback with talented skill players and a defense ready to win now. But, eh. It’s hard to make that math work in a division that features Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson.

Honestly, the Steelers’ best-case scenario is that signing Wilson lights a fire under Kenny Pickett, the 2022 first-round pick takes the step they’ve been waiting for in a functional offensive scheme and Wilson serves as a back-up all season. (Remember, Pittsburgh is paying him nickels.)

Either way, don’t count on Russ rescuing the Steelers.

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Giant audible

Joe Schoen knew running a pro sports team in the league’s largest market came with an endless supply of pressure. The New York Giants GM who grew up playing basketball in packed Indiana high school gymnasiums faced a full-court press on Monday.

He lost Saquon Barkley to the rival Philadelphia Eagles. He lost McKinney to the Packers. The A.M. radio uproar in NYC echoed all the way to his hometown of Elkhart, Ind.  

Then, the GM took one of his biggest swings yet.

Schoen traded a 2024 second-round pick (No. 39) and 2025 fifth-rounder to Carolina, with a fifth-round swap this year, for premier edge rusher Brian Burns. Of course, the real investment is what they’ll pay Burns: $141 million ($87.5 guaranteed) over five years. This makes Burns the sport’s fourth-highest paid defensive player. After the L.A. Rams reportedly offered Carolina two first-rounders — and Carolina declined — this is sound value. A year ago, the Giants acquired second- and fifth-round picks in the Leonard Williams trade.

Out is Wink Martindale’s blitz-happy scheme. In is Shane Bowen banking on the front four pressuring the QB. These Giants must be aggressive at quarterback in the draft. Even if Schoen and head coach Brian Daboll love Daniel Jones, they cannot count on the quarterback staying healthy. But maybe they’re finally finding an identity to build on. The defense has a chance to grow into a special unit with Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Dexter Lawrence and Bobby Okereke all signed through the next three seasons.

As elite talents flew off the board, Schoen needed to do something.

There are worse ways to spend money.

(Now, back to that Drake Maye, Bo Nix and J.J. McCarthy film.)

No Huddle

• When ex-Saints scout Josh Lucas studied the No. 1, 2 and 4 overall picks for Go Long last season, there was a lot he liked about Bryce Young. Lucas also knew the Panthers needed to help the 5-foot-10 Young the same way those Saints helped the 6-foot Brees. Shorter quarterbacks need depth of pocket. Elite guard play is more important than elite tackles. That’s why they valued Jahri Evans and Carl Nicks. Both Pro Bowlers allowed Brees to comfortably step up and deliver throws. Panthers GM Dan Morgan appears to be pursuing the same model in giving guard Robert Hunt a whopping five-year, $100 million contract. A slew of horrendous decisions steered the Panthers into this dark place, but they’ll sink or swim with Young. Hiring Dave Canales was a smart first step. Paying up for Hunt, on paper, is a smart second step. After letting Burns walk to New York, the focus now is painfully obvious: Find Young weapons.

• Antonio Pierce says the Las Vegas Raiders have a set of “Mahomes Rules” As he told Maxx Crosby on the defensive end’s podcast: “Knock off the head of the snake.” He wants these Raiders taking the same physical toll on Mahomes that those Bad Boy Detroit Pistons did on Michael Jordan. Signing defensive tackle Christian Wilkins to a four-year, $110 million contract certainly helps the Raiders play this brand of football — in related news, let’s pray Mahomes invests in a good cup. Wilkins was always too, uh, grabby against Josh Allen in their AFC East battles. This signing directly benefits Crosby. Facing double-teams constantly, Crosby still totaled 27 sacks and 67 QB hits the last two seasons. But to stick with Pierce’s analogy, the Raiders still need their own Isiah Thomas. Nobody would’ve given a lick about those 80s Pistons without the Hall of Fame point guard making plays and scoring 25 points in one quarter on a busted ankle. The Raiders signed Gardner Minshew (two years, $25 million), but will need to draft the right quarterback prospect to have any shot of making Mahomes and the Chiefs sweat.

• Jacoby Brissett is back in Foxborough. He enjoyed his best season under Patriots coordinator Alex Van Pelt in Cleveland. Maybe Eliot Wolf is open to a massive haul of picks for the No. 3 overall selection, but this addition is a loud signal that they’re prepared to use Brissett as a bridge to a rookie. Scouts point to Drake Maye as the intriguing project in need of development. If Washington chooses LSU’s Jayden Daniels, does Wolf choose Maye?

• Best free-agent fit is a landslide: Barkley in Philly. He’ll think he’s playing football on a different planet. In New York, Barkley was met by defenders almost immediately. PFF ranked the Giants’ line 30th in the NFL last season. Their block win rate was 67.5 percent, 31st in the NFL. The Eagles were ranked both No. 1 by PFF and finished No. 1 in block win rate. Guard Landon Dickerson finished first league-wide with a 81 percent block win rate and the Eagles locked him up on Monday long term. With O-Line mastermind Jeff Stoutland still calling the shots in Philly, Barkley will see more daylight than he ever has in the pros.

• Tyrod Taylor is a Jet. Right on track to play football well into his 60s.

• Here in Buffalo, it’s been quiet. And that’s OK. We’ll explore more in-depth soon but, for GM Brandon Beane, it’s all about finding pass catchers in a WR-loaded draft.

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