Your first look at the NFL playoffs: Who'll get to Super Bowl LIX?

Fourteen teams have made the dance. Here's what to love and hate about all of their chances.

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What a day in the NFL. Parachute into New England or Jacksonville and you’d need a hazmat suit and/or a fire extinguisher upon entrance. Elsewhere, playoff preparations heat up. What happens on Saturday and Sunday matters 100x more than anything in the regular season.

Here in Buffalo, the stakes are high. I sat down with head coach Sean McDermott for an hour to discuss.

Keep an eye out for podcast preview later today. I’ll be joined by longtime personnel man Jim Monos.

First, let’s get to the matchups, so we can all plan our lives accordingly…

Saturday

5-LA Chargers at 4-Houston, 4:30 p.m. (EST)

6-Pittsburgh at 3-Baltimore, 8 p.m.

Sunday

7-Denver at 2-Buffalo, 1 p.m.

7-Green Bay at 2-Philadelphia, 4:30 p.m.

6-Washington at 3-Tampa Bay, 8 p.m.

Monday

5-Minnesota at 4-L.A. Rams, 8 p.m.

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Now, let’s see what could sink or skyrocket each club.

(Feel free to weigh in yourself in the comments!)

AFC

1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)

Boom: They’re the back-to-back champs. They’re the team on a mission to three-peat. And for all the 24/7 debating over Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson for MVP, it’s Patrick Mahomes who still lords over the sport. We’re bound to see more Mahomes Magic in the playoffs. Two weeks of rest will help this team’s core group of starters, too. Most encouraging? The passing game’s recent surge. For three months, it looked like KC’s offense was playing with 50-pound vests on. Everything was hard. Big plays were minimal. A healthy Hollywood Brown and an emerging Xavier Worthy give the offense an entirely new downfield component.

Bust: Only five teams had fewer 20+ yard pass plays than the Chiefs this season and the offensive line was one major reason why. Moving Joe Thuney from left guard to left tackle has helped but it’s been harder for Mahomes to set up those longer-developing pass plays — think of his famous third-and-15 heave to Tyreek Hill in Kansas City’s first Super Bowl win. Those kinds of clutch plays require an extra second in pass pro. Can this reconfigured line give Mahomes that second?

2. Buffalo Bills (13-4)

Boom: Sean McDermott’s point is valid. The culture has come a long, long way at One Bills Drive. Yet, Josh Allen is the No. 1 reason for Super Bowl hope in Western New York. This has been his best season. Allen cut the turnovers down (six picks) without zapping his gunslingin’ — he’s still leaping, stiff-arming, gunning accurate throws downfield. As long as he’s the quarterback, the Bills’ championship window is wide open. Much like Brett Favre post-Sterling Sharpe, he’s become a more disciplined passer without Stefon Diggs. He’s seeing the whole field better than ever and simply finding the open receiver. Thirteen different players caught a touchdown this season. Nobody even eclipsed 1K receiving yards. Everyone eats, indeed.

Bust: Historically, this defense has struggled against elite quarterbacks in the playoffs. Through 32 non-kneeldown drives the last four playoff losses, the Bills have surrendered 16 TDs, eight field goals, forced six punts, created only one turnover and allowed an alarming 3.52 points per drive. Third-down defense has been an issue for Buffalo all season. Mahomes, especially, continues to haunt this franchise. And if they meet again, it’ll be at Arrowhead.

3. Baltimore Ravens (12-5)

Boom: The Lamar & Henry Show has exceeded all expectations with Jackson somehow elevating his play after an MVP season and Henry, 31, discovering the fountain of youth. All Henry did was nearly rush for 2K yards in addition to Jackson’s absurd 45-TD, four-pick season. Baltimore lost three-fifths of its offensive line over the offseason and it didn’t even matter. Todd Monken has a formula that just may be impossible for anyone to stop. Jackson and Henry are unicorns at their respective positions, maddening to corral in completely different ways. More troubling for the rest of the AFC? A defense that stunk up the joint the first half of the season allowed an NFL-low 15.4 points per game the final seven weeks of the season.

Bust: We’ve been here before, right? Jackson has fallen flat in the postseason nearly every season of his career. For whatever reason, his unique play style has been bottled up. Jackson is 2-4 in the playoffs, completing only 57.4 percent of his passes with a 75.7 rating and nine turnovers. Teams are going to force him to win in the pocket.

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4. Houston Texans (10-7)

Boom: A relentless pass rush always gives you a chance. Houston boasts one of the best with Danielle Hunter (12 sacks, 34 pressures) and Will Anderson Jr. (11 sacks, 29 pressures) screaming off the edges. Combine this with one of the best cover corners (Derek Stingley Jr.), and the Texans at least have a chance to get stops.

Bust: The offense has been dreadful. C.J. Stroud has regressed. It’s been a season-long concern. What happened to the Ohio State rookie stunning the likes of Hall of Famers like Kurt Warner? The most shocking development in the entire NFL this season may be No. 1 pick Bryce Young clearly outplaying the No. 2 pick in his class. It wasn’t even close. The Texans will try to shorten games and pound away with Joe Mixon — a rough plan in the modern NFL.

5. Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)

Boom: What else can we say about Jim Harbaugh? He’s the greatest turnaround coach in the sport, working the same magic in L.A. that he did with Stanford, Michigan and the 49ers. In one year, he hardened the Chargers. He got guys to buy in. This team was a total laughingstock in ‘23. Let’s not forget that Aidan O’Connell and the Raiders embarrassed put 63 points on the Chargers last season. Harbaugh will find a way to maximize this team’s strengths, minimize their weaknesses and keep the Chargers in games. Justin Herbert and Ladd McConkey might be finding a rhythm at the perfect time, too.

Bust: Can Greg Roman be trusted as the OC if a playoff game revs into a shootout? His schematics in the run game are A+, and he seemed to hit his stride the last three weeks as a playcaller. In a pivotal TNF win over Denver, Herbert used play-action on 47.2 percent of his dropbacks, going 12 of 15 for 155 yards on those plays. To slay the heavy hitters in the conference, Roman will need to keep cutting Herbert loose.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)

Boom: It’s hard to find glimmers of hope for a team that’s limping into the tourney on a four-game losing streak. I suppose Russell Wilson is an upgrade over the quarterback Mike Tomlin started last year in the postseason: Mason Rudolph. And before getting smacked by the Ravens, 34-17, a couple weeks back, Tomlin was the one coach who’s historically had the most success against Lamar Jackson. Maybe he’s able to scheme up a gameplan that makes Baltimore grind through drives.

Bust: The Steelers are a mess. Right when we thought this may be the club that gives KC and Buffalo their best shot, Wilson regresses and George Pickens’ drama takes new twists and turns. Worst of all, the team’s best player (T.J. Watt) has been compromised by a lingering ankle injury. Through 156 snaps the final three games, Watt was completely shut out with zero sacks. He also only had two solo tackles.

7. Denver Broncos (10-7)

Boom: Denver’s defense finished first in EPA, first in sacks and third in scoring. It got a little hairy late in the season vs. Jameis Winston, Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert but— overall? — this has been one of the best units in the NFL. Cornerback Patrick Surtain II is a throwback shutdown corner capable of eliminating half the field and Pro Bowler Nik Bonitto (13.5 sacks, two FF, one INT for a TD) is a rising star. Over on offense, Bo Nix was tailor-made for Sean Payton’s offense. Few rookies decode blitzes and disguises this quickly. Payton has coached in 17 playoff games. He isn’t an easy out for Buffalo.

Bust: Nobody on offense even ran for 600 yards. The Broncos’ committee approach is just OK. Neither Javonte Williams or Jaleel McLaughlin had a rush longer than 21 yards on their 252 combined carries. Nix, a Brees Lite of a QB, is still a rookie. In a late-season loss to the Chargers, he mustered only 3.3 air yards per attempt — the second-lowest total in a game all season. Teams will dare him to take shots deep.

NFC

1. Detroit Lions (15-2)

Boom: Right when you think you’ve seen it all from Dan Campbell, he drops another banger inside the locker room after claiming the North. That’s who he is — electric. Doesn’t matter if it’s a quarterback who signed a $212 million contract or a cheap vet signed from the thrift store for a couple weeks. Campbell finds a way to squeeze every ounce of talent he can out of you… and you want to run through the nearest brick wall. He’s the reason to believe in these Lions as a Super Bowl team because he’s the greatest force of nature in the sport.

Bust: Injuries. Even with guys coming back — linebacker Alex Anzalone was a game-changer Sunday night — the Lions are without foundational players. Most notably, defensive end Aidan Hutchinson and defensive tackle Alim McNeill. The 31-9 rout of the Vikings was encouraging. Detroit totaled 10 QB hits against an NFC power. Even Za’Darius Smith got rolling with a sack. Can the pass rush keep the heat on? DC Aaron Glenn faces the most important month of his coaching life.

2. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)

Boom: The decision to rest Saquon Barkley was one of Nick Sirianni’s best coaching decisions all season. Breaking Eric Dickerson’s rushing title would’ve been fun but he’s Reason No. 1, Reason No. 2 and Reason No. 3 these Eagles have the ability to reach the Super Bowl. If Barkley would’ve twisted his ankle, there would’ve been hell to pay in Philly. And special as he is, give it up to this Eagles O-Line. Jeff Stoutland remains the best offensive line coach in the sport. Barkley finished the season averaging an NFL-high 3.8 yards before contact.

Bust: Jalen Hurts is still in the concussion protocol. Sirianni has been tight-lipped on the subject. Even if he’s healthy, can Hurts make the necessary plays downfield to win three games in a row? Barkley’s talents should soften the secondary, but this hasn’t been the same quarterback who lit up Kansas City in the Super Bowl. Hurts eclipsed 300 yards passing only once this season. A.J. Brown’s anger boiled over after a narrow win over Carolina.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)

Boom: Let’s put some respect on Todd Bowles’ name. All he’s done is devise the gameplan that ate Patrick Mahomes alive in one Super Bowl and lead the Bucs to the playoffs three years in a row as the head coach. Nobody in the NFL has thrown more touchdowns the last two years than Baker Mayfield (69), but Bowles’ resourcefulness has been one of the most under-appreciated storylines of the season. The Bucs lost a pair of stalwarts for half the season — wideout Chris Godwin and safety Antoine Winfield. DBs Jordan Whitehead and Jamel Dean both landed on IR at various points. Mike Evans missed 3 1/2 games. Starting right tackle Luke Goedeke missed four games, too. Bowles knows how to weather the sport’s attrition.

Bust: All this being said? Quarterbacks are going to challenge this secondary. The Buccaneers allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game (249.3). Relying on turnovers is a tough way to make a living.

4. Los Angeles Rams (10-7)

Boom: After getting suplexed by Josh Allen at home — 424 yards, six touchdowns — the Rams defense has done a 180. Through Weeks 15, 16 and 17, the Rams allowed only two touchdowns. Life after Aaron Donald was bound to be tough sledding but it appears they’ve found their footing at the right time. Rookies Braden Fiske (8.5 sacks, 2 FF) and Jared Verse (4.5 sacks, 18 QB hits) have been excellent. On offense, Matthew Stafford is an unflinching Super Bowl champ. Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp are two legit No. 1 wideouts.

Bust: Where did that offensive production go since lighting up Buffalo? Some games, this offense looks like the Greatest Show on Turf reincarnated. Other games, they struggle to nickel ‘n dime their way down the field. Against those sad-sack Jets, Stafford threw for just 110 yards. Sean McVay will need to find a new wrinkle or two vs. Brian Flores in Round 1.

5. Minnesota Vikings (14-3)

Boom: It’s obviously ridiculous that the 14-win Vikings are a five seed. One of these centuries, owners will wise up and realize how antiquated it is for division champs to be “rewarded” a home playoff game. If Kevin O’Connell’s team can shake off the cobwebs from the Lions loss in time, they’re still the healthiest team in the conference. When this offense is on, no team has more weapons. (And Justin Jefferson is the best wide receiver in football.) When this defense is on, no coordinator flusters quarterbacks like Flores. Minnesota’s NFL-high 33 takeaways were not luck. (And Jonathan Greenard is the most underrated pass rusher in football). A winning formula is embedded into this team’s makeup.

Bust: The Vikes must feel like a weary boxer today after taking Detroit’s KO shot. Can they mentally reset in time to travel across the country to face a team that beat them this season? O’Connell’s been striking the right notes all season. The kicking game is a concern. Will Reichard has gone 10 of 16 since returning from a quad injury. Also, Sam Darnold was apparently replaced by an imposter at Ford Field. The quarterback in No. 14 was unrecognizable.

6. Washington Commanders (12-5)

Boom: The numbers are fun. The numbers fail to tell the story of Jayden Daniels. He has been spectacular every time the Commanders need him to be spectacular. Almost immediately, it was obvious that Daniels lives for pressure moments. That’s not normal for rookie quarterbacks. And like Michael Vick gliding through the cold and snow at Lambeau Field in 2002, there’s no way to prepare for one dangerous variable: Daniels’ legs. His 0-to-60 speed is top 5 in the NFL, regardless of position. Here’s a great stat from ESPN: 26 percent of the Commanders’ third- and fourth-down conversions in 2024 have come via quarterback run. With him, it doesn’t matter what you draw up on a whiteboard.

Bust: Washington had the third-worst rushing defense in the entire NFL, allowing 137.5 yards per game on the ground. Only Carolina and New Orleans were worse. That’s a problem.

7. Green Bay Packers (11-6)

Boom: The newfound violence. We’ve all seen these Packers get punked in January year after year. With nail-eating personalities like Sean Rhyan and a bruising Josh Jacobs (1,329 rushing yards, 15 TD), Green Bay has made a concerted effort to build a physically tough team that can win this time of year. Let’s not forget what Jordan Love did to another NFC East foe in this exact game 365 days ago, too. Defensively, Jeff Hafley’s been a major improvement over Joe Barry at DC. Xavier McKinney (eight interceptions) is a football magnet.

Bust: The Packers went 1-5 in their own division. And whereas Campbell and O’Connell were the smooth operators in total command, LaFleur seemed to keep throwing tantrums. Yelling at opposing fans is JV-level stuff. I love how LaFleur filled the vacuum left by Aaron Rodgers — he is the voice to follow now — but cool and calm is needed to execute in the postseason. For all of his regular season success, winning 67 percent of his games, LaFleur is 3-4 in the playoffs. It’s time for the head coach to deliver.

ICYMI: