The picks are in. Here’s how we see the games going down this weekend.
As always, weigh in with your projections in the comments and be sure to join us inside the Gameday Chat throughout the four games.
Live in Western New York? In town for Bills-Ravens? Head to Fattey Beer in Orchard Park around 7 p.m. (EST) on Saturday night, right through Lions-Commanders on for a live podcast and brews. Would love to say hello.
TYLER DUNNE
AFC
Giving Andy Reid this much time to prepare for a playoff game is like giving Usain Bolt a 10-meter head start. And doesn’t Patrick Mahomes’ ankle injury feel like a lifetime ago? Somehow, we’ve all fallen asleep on these Kansas City Chiefs. Again. Chiefs 31, Texans 17.
Flip a coin in the arctic freeze. Cold has never fazed Josh Allen so — despite the scary prospect of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry rolling downhill — I like the offense that’s been a machine at home all season. Superman delivers with an all-time, last-minute drive. Bills 30, Ravens 28.
NFC
Love what Dan Quinn’s building but Dan Campbell’s operation has been accelerating toward this moment since 2021. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery rekindle their “Sonic & Knuckles” attack at an electric Ford Field. Lions 35, Commanders 24.
Nobody throws a more gorgeous ball than Matthew Stafford. Here’s thinking his spiral knives through all weather, the Rams run D does enough vs. Saquon Barkley and A.J. Brown brings Keyshawn’s "Just Give Me the Damn Ball!” to read on the sideline. Rams 24, Eagles 14.
BOB MCGINN
AFC
Patrick Mahomes has never lost in the playoffs before the AFC Championship Game and he isn’t about to start now. Last year, Houston was bounced in the divisionals by Baltimore, 34-10. Rinse, repeat. Chiefs 34, Texans 10.
All eight remaining teams finished among the top 15 in turnover differential. The Bills, first in giveaways (eight) and third in takeaways (32), led the NFL easily at plus-24 compared to the Ravens’ plus-6. That’s how playoff games are won in Orchard Park. Bills 28, Ravens 20.
NFC
Three times between 1982 and 1999 Washington dealt the Lions humbling playoff defeats: 31-7, 41-10 and 27-13. Turnabout is fair play. Too much offense for the Commanders to handle. Lions 44, Commanders 26.
At this point of the season, the Rams are better than the Packers. On a snowy day in south Philly, they still won’t have quite enough to shut up those mean-minded denizens of the Linc. Eagles 24, Rams 23.
JIM MONOS
AFC
Not over-analyzing. Yes, the Chiefs are obviously rested but this team has become the championship Spurs teams. Style points have gone away, wins rack up. Chiefs 23, Texans 17.
Nothing is derailing the inevitable Josh Allen vs Patrick Mahomes matchup. Not even Lamar Jackson. The wildy talented Jackson will have to wait to try again next season. Unless the Derrick Henry train is too much for the Bills defense, Buffalo takes care if business anyway possible. Bills 24, Ravens 13.
NFC
The Lions are a machine on offense going against a below average defense. Jayden Daniels’s “no pulse” behavior is fascinating to watch unless you watched him at LSU. Fireworks style game. Lions 37, Commanders 30.
Some teams are built for any weather and some teams are not. Weather makes this game tricky but not for the Eagles offensive line. Eagles 24, Rams 13.
Jayden Daniels is a Mongoose: Fearless, quick, cunning, athletic and ultimately, deadly to whatever team he plays against. Tampa Bay. Gone. Detroit. Gone.