Bob McGinn's ALL-NFC NORTH TEAM, Offense: Why the Detroit Lions are built to last
Our Bob McGinn again talks to scouts across the NFL for his annual All-NFC North Team. Here's the unfiltered analysis on everything Lions, Vikings, Packers and Bears. Detroit's star power is real.
Go Long subscribers can access Bob McGinn’s extensive All-NFC North Team below.
How do NFL scouts view this entire division? Here’s the good, bad and ugly.
By Bob McGinn
Since the Bears, Lions, Packers and Vikings first were grouped together as a four-team division in 1967, the NFC Central and, since 2002, the NFC North has witnessed many false alarms when it comes to teams generating hype as the next big thing.
More times than not, the results didn’t merit the headlines.
Which brings us to the current Lions, who for the first time in 57 seasons of divisional play (none in strike-torn 1982) have captured the crown for only the fifth time, and first time ever in back-to-back years.
They’ve come out of nowhere, ending a 29-year drought in which eight coaches (and three interim mentors) tried and failed to deliver Detroit from the football wilderness. If, and it’s a big if, the Lions can sustain their success, it’ll rank among the greatest reclamation projects in professional football history.
“Don’t they have to stand the test of time?” one seasoned executive in the division said last week. “They have the potential because it seems like they’ve got the right head coach and the right personnel guy. They’ve got a premier program now. Can they keep it going like Bud Grant or Mike McCarthy? That remains to be seen. So many things can happen.”
Dynasty means repeated championships. As the top seeding in the NFC playoffs Detroit probably has as good a chance as any to win it all this year, but until last year and the 1950s (won three NFL titles) have the Lions even been near a trophy. Only four of the 32 franchises, including Detroit, have yet to play in the 58-year history of the Super Bowl — let alone win one.
The “Black and Blue” division has been marked four times by dominant eras. Those four dynasties combined spanned 40 years, numbered 30 division titles and led to eight Super Bowl appearances, three of which were victorious.
Minnesota, 1968-’78: The Ice Man, Grant, came down from the CFL and turned the Vikings, who were born as an expansion team in 1961, into a steely, cold-weather machine. They claimed 10 divisions in 11 years (90.9%), relying on the “Purple People Eaters” and cozy Metropolitan Stadium to reach the Super Bowl four times. Alas, the Vikings still haven’t won the big one.
Chicago, 1984-’90: The Bears hadn’t even won a division or Western Conference title since their NFL championship in 1963 when founder George Halas tapped ex-tight end Mike Ditka to resurrect the franchise in 1982. In 1984, Iron Mike and a vicious defense designed by cantankerous Buddy Ryan placed a stranglehold on their NFC Central brethren that led to six titles in seven years (85.7%). The Super Bowl-winning ’85 team deserves mention among the greatest ever.
Green Bay, 1995-’04: With GM Ron Wolf laying the foundation from 1992-2000, coaches Mike Holmgren and Mike Sherman each winning three consecutive division crowns and irrepressible Brett Favre providing all-time quarterbacking, the Packers won the NFC Central six times in 10 years (60%). Holmgren’s exit to Seattle in January 1999 ended his pursuit of more Super Bowls with Favre. They appeared twice, winning the first.
Green Bay, 2010-’21: The return of the Packers had a humble beginning in 2010 with a second-place finish to the Bears and No. 6 seed in the NFC playoffs. The subsequent Super Bowl triumph was followed by a 15-1 finish in 2011 and the first of eight division titles in the span of 12 seasons (66.7%). Quarterbacked by whip-armed Aaron Rodgers, coaches Mike McCarthy and Matt LaFleur compiled an enviable 50-19-2 record against the NFC North.
The Lions, of course, aren’t worried about becoming the fifth dynasty. Detroit and southeast Michigan has fallen in love with the onrushing Lions, much like Minnesotans did half a century ago with their expansion darlings, Chicagoans did with their modern-day Monsters of the Midway and the entire state of Wisconsin thrilled to Lombardi-like football after a generation of hopelessness.
Detroit would be delirious just with a berth in the Super Bowl.
Football people, however, detect staying power in the Lions.
Jared Goff is 30, has a long-term contract and is performing like a franchise quarterback.
Dan Campbell 48, inspirational, aggressive and plain-talking, could run for governor given his popularity. He seems to be in it for the long haul.
In a position that once was disgraced by Matt Millen, the 45-year-old GM Brad Holmes has surrounded himself with an exceptional staff and has consistently made the right player moves.
Principal owner and chair Sheila Ford Hamp, 73, has brought strength and smart ideas to an ownership family that operated with benign neglect and lack of expertise for too long. Her 4 ½ years have been a revelation.
In the last nine months the Lions have gotten ahead of the game by extending the contracts of tackle Penei Sewell, 24; wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, 25; defensive tackle Alim McNeill, 24; running back David Montgomery, 27; tackle Taylor Decker, 31, and Goff.
Defensive end Aidan Hutchinson, 24, figures to be next. Running back Jahmyr Gibbs, 22, has another year before an extension comes his way.
“I see the Lions being built to have the same success in the next couple years,” an NFC personnel man said. “They were good last year and excellent this year. They really return everybody that’s a key player.
“I think Detroit is the job Campbell wants. I could see him being there as long as Sean Payton was in New Orleans (15 years). I see him more that route than the Bill Parcells’ jump from team to team. Those are his two mentors.
“I don’t see Holmes going anywhere. They’ve got great ownership. Sheila Hamp knows how she wants things run and she’s hired the right people to do that.”
The departures of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and/or defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn to one of their multiple head-coaching opportunities would be a blow.
“How will Goff do without Johnson?” said another personnel man. “Johnson, I think, has just totally remade Goff. (Sean) McVay ran out of patience with Goff but Johnson just resurrected him. But they’ve got the line. As long as they’ve got that line they’ve got a chance.”
Not only was the NFC North easily the best division this year but by some metrics it was the most dominant since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970. The Lions (15-2) survived a bruising title chase to outlast Minnesota (14-3), Green Bay (11-6) and Chicago (5-12), which at one point was 4-2 and a presumed contender.
What made the Lions’ regular season so extraordinary was the manner in which they handled possibly the league’s ,most debilitating siege of injuries. Losing Hutchinson, who might have been headed for NFL Defensive Player of the Year honors, to a season-ending tib-fib injury in Game 5 was devastating.
Seventeen players, 11 more than Green Bay and nine more than Minnesota, finished the regular season on injured reserve for Detroit. Ten of the 17 were at least competitive situation substitutes on defense.
Holmes responded by adding a slew of mostly older players with the savvy to practice and play almost immediately. Mixing and matching one veteran with another and still fielding the NFL’s seventh-best unit in points allowed, the Lions out of necessity wound up having 42 guys play on defense compared to 31 for the Vikings, 30 for Chicago and 28 for Green Bay.
“I don’t think they’re going to go away just because of what they were able to do this year with all those injuries,” one scout said. “They’re able to identify young and older guys who fit their style of play. With the way they’ve identified parts of their team and the way the quarterback has played … I think they’re going to be loaded for a long time.”
Inheriting a mess from the administration of GM Bob Quinn and coach Matt Patricia in January 2021, the team of Campbell & Holmes has gone 6-2 against Green Bay after the Lions went 17-43 in the series during the previous 29 years, or since the Packers’ renaissance began in 1992.
The Vikings were the surprise team of the NFC North, leaping from a 7-10 finish in 2023 to 14-3 and a winner-take-all game at Ford Field on the momentous final night of the regular season. A 31-9 loss to the Lions and first-round playoff defeat to the Rams cast a pall on what was a superb season under coach Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores, his wily second-year defensive coordinator.
“Really, really good young coach,” said one executive. “If (J.J.) McCarthy is the long-term answer at quarterback they’ll have a young quarterback they can grow with (Justin) Jefferson and (Jordan) Addison. They’re young, so I wouldn’t put it (possible dynasty) past them, either.”
Entering the season, the Vikings were the NFL’s second-oldest team. Green Bay was the youngest, Detroit was ninth youngest and Chicago was 20th youngest.
Now the Vikings probably have the most work to do in the offseason when it comes to potential losses through unrestricted free agency. Most at issue is decide what to do about free-agent-to-be Sam Darnold, who in his seventh season turned his career around and was superb until the final two games.
“I don’t know if McCarthy can play or not,” said one scout. “Why not sign Darnold and keep McCarthy on his rookie deal? It’ll play itself out. To give Darnold away to another team when he should be reaching his prime would be crazy. It’d be one thing if he was in his 30’s, but he’s 27.”
It has been 14 years since the Packers played in a Super Bowl. In that span they’ve gone 146-80-2 in the regular season (64.5%) and reached the postseason 11 times, only to post an 8-11 mark and fall short year after year.
Next season with be LaFleur’s seventh in Green Bay. His record in the regular season (67-33) is balanced by a 3-5 mark in the postseason. Campbell and O’Connell, his roadblocks to division titles and home-field playoff advantage, are 6-2 and 4-2 against him, respectively.
“They were a blocked field goal away from going 0-6 in the division,” one executive said. “I think they’ve got a hell of a coach but I was just shocked that the Bears beat them. The quarterback (Jordan Love) is good but he isn’t great. I think Love is at his ceiling. I may be totally wrong.”
The longer LaFleur coaches without a Super Bowl ring, the longer the odds stack against him. Discounting Vince Lombardi, who won three NFL championships before the Super Bowl existed and then won Super Bowl I in his eighth year, only five others have won it all after coaching for seven or more seasons with one team.
That list includes Andy Reid, seventh year in Kansas City; John Madden, eighth year in Oakland; Hank Stram, 10th year in Kansas City; Tom Landry, 12th year in Dallas, and Bill Cowher, 14th year in Pittsburgh. The first six seasons for Stram and Landry were in the pre-Super Bowl era.
The 29 coaches that won their first Super Bowl in the first six seasons were McVay, Bruce Arians, Doug Pederson, Gary Kubiak, Pete Carroll, John Harbaugh, McCarthy, Payton, Mike Tomlin, Tom Coughlin, Tony Dungy, Jon Gruden, Bill Belichick, Brian Billick, Dick Vermeil, Mike Shanahan, Holmgren, Barry Switzer, Jimmy Johnson, George Seifert, Bill Parcells, Ditka, Joe Gibbs, Bill Walsh, Tom Flores, Chuck Noll, Don Shula, Don McCafferty and Weeb Ewbank.
The list of coaches with winning track records and seven-plus years with one team that didn’t even reach the Super Bowl includes Don Coryell, Marty Schottenheimer, John Robinson, Jim Mora Sr., Chuck Knox, Dennis Green and Mike Smith.
The Packers were one of the healthiest teams in the league and, said one executive, “You’d be hard-pressed to come up with a signature win.”
“For as good as their record is they were terrible in the division,” said another executive. “They’re the youngest team in the league. They’ve got to become a little more physical and they gotta get a corner. I (said) long ago Jaire Alexander was going to be an issue. That issue is still hanging right there. They’re one corner short all the time. It took them until a (few weeks) ago to figure out something wasn’t right with him? They might as well get him out of there if he doesn’t want to be there.”
The underpinning of McCarthy’s 12 ½-year tenure and LaFleur’s first three years was dominance of the NFC North. In almost six decades of the division the Packers’ mark of 1-5 equaled that of Bart Starr’s hapless 1975 and ’76 squads as their poorest ever.
The Bears fired coach Matt Eberflus 12 games into a season that started with promise and culminated with an upset victory at Lambeau Field to snap a 10-game losing streak. Eberflus finished 14-32 as Chicago was last for the third straight season and remains without a winning record since 2018.
“They’re a legacy franchise,” one executive said. “It’s a shame. They’re a mess.”
Of their five losses within the division, three were by a field goal or less.
“They should have beat Detroit on Thanksgiving,” one scout said. “The head coach blew that one. They need a really sound coach, fix the offensive line, get one more defensive lineman. You fix that, they’re a contender within the division. But who’s the coach gonna be?”
For the record, the breakdown of division titles for the four NFC Central/North charter members stands like this: Minnesota 21, Green Bay 17, Chicago 11, Detroit five. Tampa Bay, which was aligned in the NFC Central for 25 years (1977-’01), captured three.
Based on extensive interviews last week with four executives well-versed on the Bears, Lions, Packers and Vikings, the following is my All-NFC North Division team on offense. The defense and special teams will appear next week.
ALL-NFC NORTH TEAM
OFFENSE
Wide receivers: JUSTIN JEFFERSON (Minn), AMON-RA ST. BROWN (Det) and D.J. MOORE (Chi). Others, in order: Jordan Addison (Minn), Jameson Williams (Det), Rome Odunze (Chi), Romeo Doubs (GB), Jayden Reed (GB), Christian Watson (GB), Keenan Allen (Chi), Dontayvion Wicks (GB), Jalen Nailor (Minn), Tim Patrick (Det), Kalif Raymond (Det).
The only change among the top four from 2023 were St. Brown and Moore switching places. Jefferson and Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase, teammates at LSU, finished 1-2 in receiving yards.