Although there is one glaring mistake when Tyler writes about the Denver loss…
“When a defensive coach failed to get that one defensive stop yet again, there were no more excuses to make”
The fact is that the Bills DID make “that one defensive stop” in OT. The play-by-play tells the tale…
1st & 10 at DEN 28 - 11-yd Pass
1st & 10 at DEN 39 - (Shotgun) B.Nix pass incomplete short left to C.Sutton.
2nd & 10 at DEN 39 - (Shotgun) B.Nix pass short right to M.Mims to DEN 38 for -1 yards
3rd & 11 at DEN 38 - (Shotgun) B.Nix pass incomplete deep middle to C.Sutton.
4th & 11 at DEN 38 - J.Crawshaw punts 55 yards to BUF 7, Center-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.
Although your critique of the defense in playoff games is well deserved, what is unsaid (or at least, minimized) is that the last THREE playoff loses, the Bills were in perfect position to win the game with the ball in Josh Allen’s hands with the excellent chance to win the game with a TD
2023 - at home, the Bills have the ball at KC’s 27 yard line. 1 yard run, two incompletions. Missed FG to tie…loss.
2024 - AFCC game at KC. Bills get the ball with 3:33 left. Their last four plays???
Incompletion
Incompletion
5 yard pass
Incompletion - turnover on downs…loss.
-2025 - the Bills had TWO chances to end the game. In regulation and in OT. They only needed a FG in OT. Yet…they failed.
Yes, the defense has left a lot to be desired in playoff time, especially from a defense HC.
But man ‘o man, if the offense has the ball with a extremely good chance to win the game, and do not, it is pretty damning.
This take is spot-on. I have made this point to friends and family: All you could ask for in those situations is for JA17 to have the ball in his hands with a chance to win the game, whatever the defense may have done/not done. And he failed to come through, for whatever reason.
That's why I favor an aggressive, offensive-minded HC that is going to be very creative in maximizing Josh's talents. I like Daboll or Mike McDaniel, in that regard. Not sure I want one of the young, up and comers at this point.
Solid points all around. Looking at this big picture, I suppose, it's not too much to ask for a defensive-minded HC to surrender less points per drive than the 2007 New England Patriots scored.
I totally disagree with this. The boneheaded decision to not take the ball in OT was what everyone said we should do. And we did get a stop. But guess what. A good punt put is on the 5 yard line. I'd rather we had given up a FG and at least get Josh the ball in good field position.
The 2024 loss was Spags dominating Brady's mini 12 play playbook when it counted the most. Not to mention that if the refs don't hose us on the 4th down sneak, we aren't even having this discussion.
2023-If Diggs makes a catch on a perfect ball, the game probably ends differently.
And no, on Saturday we needed a stop with 4 min to go and never came close.
Another outstanding article, Tyler. What a great, insightful read.
Props to the Bills for having the courage to make a very difficult decision and pursue greatness instead of settling for success. May not work out, but admire the approach.
Sadly, as a GBP fan it feels like you're going to be able to use a lot of the themes from this article in 2-3 years for when MLF is belatedly let go.
'Interesting fella' suggests a journey that could take us to far and dangerous places, but one doesn't look for adventure without accepting that they won't see the shore for a long time.
Was waiting for this, Tyler. No doubt in my head that Terry and Beane desperately want to win. On them now, and here's to hoping we get a Tampa Bay situation.
Will always be grateful to McD for what he did for this team!
No question, Jen. I covered the 2015 Bills under Rex Ryan at The Buffalo News and -- Good God -- it was basically a Dumper Fire if that Dumpster Fire previously house rabies-infested raccoons sprayed by skunks with a side of Rickety Cricket from Always Sunny.
I'll always give Sean McDermott the credit he deserves for cleaning up the culture. I mean, you had LeSean McCoy's "no weird orgy thing" party drama, Mario Williams quitting on the team (one player told me he cared more about his remote control cars than playing football), Percy Harvin's bizarre disappearance, Rex strolling on up to the podium with a Clemson helmet on, etc., etc. The new head coach fixed this all, ended the drought, brought back respectability.
BUT at some point, the calculus changes. McDermott needed to realize he had something special.
Stef! Stay tuned. Matt LaFleur is two years behind McDermott but situations are similar.
One thing. Maybe I missed it. Have the details of his contract surfaced? Devil's always in those details. Do wonder if Ed Policy gave himself an out somewhere.
I know that his relationship with Terry and Kim Pegula was very, very strong when Brian Daboll was here in Buffalo as the offensive coordinator -- in addition to the Josh relationship.
Daboll botched some late-game game management situations.
That stuff is all real.
It's on the Bills to see if he can learn from those mistakes -- past head coaches have! -- and if he can rekindle the magic with Allen through some new X 'n O innovation.
Outstanding Tyler. Think you've made a number of us Packer fans just about become Bills fans, or at least more than curious followers, with this site.
Think best case can go with for the change is maybe it's just time to try something different. Am sure McDermott has his faults, like any coach. And as a defensive guy, you'd like to feel like he emptied the cupboard to maximize the talent on hand and maybe he didn't with a game like Denver. Maybe his defensive system is stale or just not getting the most out of guys.
At the same time, agree with Dave's comments as well here. Josh Allen needs to be better in these games. Even with his brilliant moments that undoubtedly kept Buffalo in the game, just can't have four turnovers. And indeed the defense has given him chances to get the job done-hasn't dominated, but it has given him chances-in a number of playoff games now, and he hasn't capitalized.
Also, don't think the GM's role in this can be minimized. Yes, he continued to draft defense with a defensive-minded coach. But continually, it has failed. If wins & losses are above all on the coach-and they are-then the drafting where he had final say is all on him, no matter how much input McDermott may have had.
Thank you for finding intrigue in another team here at Go Long!
That Packer perspective is important. McGinn always held Aaron Rodgers to the highest of standards in the postseason. Vow to do the same with Josh Allen. Four turnovers -- even if two are a little funky -- are four turnovers. Hence, the tears. Pressure will be extremely high to perform every single January here on out.
Great analysis and insights. Didn't appreciate this note until you said it... And this is spot on. "To reach a Super Bowl, the Core Four must be aligned: owner, GM, head coach and quarterback.". Clearly 2 of 3 were not aligned and based on Josh's silence, I suspect he was with the majority. And while I fear Pegula turning the Bills into the Pre-GMJK, Beane is still there even though he's now under immense pressure. One thing I realize, imagine if Pegula fired both.... Do we think Pegula could get the GM and coach hires right??? Not this guy.... God help us!
Another extremely well written article. Quick thoughts:
- GB needed to move on from LaFleur. Much like 13 seconds he's not coming back from that meltdown in GB
- McDermott's poor in game strategy ultimately was his undoing (as it is for a lot of coaches in his tier). 13 seconds. Not draining time vs Jax. Gifting Denver 3 points before halftime. Rushing 3 vs Nix.
- There are only 2 people Buffalo should be going after - Flores or Daboll with Flores being the better target of the two. When it comes to in game strategy and decision making, stealing wins, and squeezing every last win out of a roster Flores is in a tier with few others like Vrabel.
Love this, and I'm not sure what's right or what's wrong.
How should owners handle a playoff loss as downright devastating as the one Green Bay suffered at Soldier Field? Heading into that loss, those on Packers staff had a strong feeling Matt LaFleur would be safe judging by what Ed Policy has said privately and publicly. But the 21-3 meltdown was such a disaster? I heard they started to genuinely worry Policy would fire LaFleur. He didn't. He took a deep breath. Is that the right move? Hell, you read what I wrote. I can't shake the Packers going four more years with Mike McCarthy and the Bills going four more years with McDermott after "13 Seconds."
But I'm sure there are examples of some of the game's best ever suffering brutal playoff losses early on, too.
Think the key is the owner being present and having a true pulse of the org.
Incredible that you could put this all together so quickly after the shocking news. Buffalo was completely railed by the Cooks call and it cost this team a legit chance of going to the Super Bowl and McDermott his job.
I think Daboll could be a real contender for the job given all the success he enjoyed in Buffalo and his relationship with Allen. It always felt like he left for the Giants because he was never going to be more popular and have such a huge opportunity. I think you could plug him in and he would be up to speed very quickly and unlock all Josh has to offer.
If he doesn't get the Browns job you could but Jim Schwartz in on the D, have a solid draft that nets a game changer WR along with some secondary help, and you have a great shot to get it done in a wide open AFC.
Appreciate it, Bob. In truth, I've been talking to people about this all for a while.
Not shocked by the firing.
Anything shy of a Super Bowl trip, I think McDermott is out. But you're right. Jobs are won/lost on the fringes. Eight playoff losses without a SB appearance will get most coaches.
Beane is now on the clock. He has a short window to make things better. No more excuses. I've heard some say he is going to hire a GM to report to him. I truly hope that isn't the case, unless of course that person is better at drafting.
McDermott was not going to be fired after 13 seconds. I don't think they were going to fire him after 2022 either, especially after the Hamlin situation. But 2023 was a home playoff loss to the Chiefs. That should have been it. Instead he got two more chances and nothing changed. It is sad, and the average fan thinks he got screwed, but the reality is it should have happened 2 years ago.
I'm ready to see who they get next. I have long argued that the # of coaches who would be lining up to take over the Bills would be around the block. Who seriously wouldn't want a team with Josh Allen in his prime, a decent OL and a great running game? Maybe they do go with a defensive minded coach to fix McDermott's problem. But I think it will be an offensive guy just b/c that is the way things usually go in the league. None of the names mentioned so far get me that excited, so Beane has his work cut out for him
Obviously McD should have ordered a squib kick in the 13-seconds game, but Josh's inadequacies in the clutch during the last three playoff games and, particularly, his awful performance against the Broncos, had a lot to do with the Bills' failures. Having a true No. 1 and No. 2 receiver might have helped. Good luck finding a coach who will improve on McD's 66% winning percentage.
A huge, huge Thank You to everyone for reading, subscribing, supporting. Will dive into the comments here in the future.
In the meantime, join us tonight at 8 for a Happy Hour!
Excellent recap of the McD era.
Although there is one glaring mistake when Tyler writes about the Denver loss…
“When a defensive coach failed to get that one defensive stop yet again, there were no more excuses to make”
The fact is that the Bills DID make “that one defensive stop” in OT. The play-by-play tells the tale…
1st & 10 at DEN 28 - 11-yd Pass
1st & 10 at DEN 39 - (Shotgun) B.Nix pass incomplete short left to C.Sutton.
2nd & 10 at DEN 39 - (Shotgun) B.Nix pass short right to M.Mims to DEN 38 for -1 yards
3rd & 11 at DEN 38 - (Shotgun) B.Nix pass incomplete deep middle to C.Sutton.
4th & 11 at DEN 38 - J.Crawshaw punts 55 yards to BUF 7, Center-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.
Although your critique of the defense in playoff games is well deserved, what is unsaid (or at least, minimized) is that the last THREE playoff loses, the Bills were in perfect position to win the game with the ball in Josh Allen’s hands with the excellent chance to win the game with a TD
2023 - at home, the Bills have the ball at KC’s 27 yard line. 1 yard run, two incompletions. Missed FG to tie…loss.
2024 - AFCC game at KC. Bills get the ball with 3:33 left. Their last four plays???
Incompletion
Incompletion
5 yard pass
Incompletion - turnover on downs…loss.
-2025 - the Bills had TWO chances to end the game. In regulation and in OT. They only needed a FG in OT. Yet…they failed.
Yes, the defense has left a lot to be desired in playoff time, especially from a defense HC.
But man ‘o man, if the offense has the ball with a extremely good chance to win the game, and do not, it is pretty damning.
This take is spot-on. I have made this point to friends and family: All you could ask for in those situations is for JA17 to have the ball in his hands with a chance to win the game, whatever the defense may have done/not done. And he failed to come through, for whatever reason.
That's why I favor an aggressive, offensive-minded HC that is going to be very creative in maximizing Josh's talents. I like Daboll or Mike McDaniel, in that regard. Not sure I want one of the young, up and comers at this point.
Solid points all around. Looking at this big picture, I suppose, it's not too much to ask for a defensive-minded HC to surrender less points per drive than the 2007 New England Patriots scored.
Not sure why my comment was truncated (I cannot see the full post). Here is what was cut off..
-2025 - the Bills had TWO chances to end the game. In regulation and in OT. They only needed a FG in OT. Yet…they failed.
Yes, the defense has left a lot to be desired in playoff time, especially from a defense HC.
But man ‘o man, if the offense has the ball with a extremely good chance to win the game, and do not, it is pretty damning.
I totally disagree with this. The boneheaded decision to not take the ball in OT was what everyone said we should do. And we did get a stop. But guess what. A good punt put is on the 5 yard line. I'd rather we had given up a FG and at least get Josh the ball in good field position.
The 2024 loss was Spags dominating Brady's mini 12 play playbook when it counted the most. Not to mention that if the refs don't hose us on the 4th down sneak, we aren't even having this discussion.
2023-If Diggs makes a catch on a perfect ball, the game probably ends differently.
And no, on Saturday we needed a stop with 4 min to go and never came close.
I totally disagree with what you wrote.
Uhhh....NO ONE is saying that the team that wins the coin toss for OT (with today's rules) should take the ball.
NO ONE!
That would be coaching malpractice.
The FACT is that the Bills had TWO PRIMO chances to win the Denver game, with the ball at the end of regulations and in OT, needing only a FG.
They moved from the 5 yard line to their 36 with relative ease. Then disaster.
Fantastic read. Tyler as usual with the in-depth very well thought out analysis.
Another outstanding article, Tyler. What a great, insightful read.
Props to the Bills for having the courage to make a very difficult decision and pursue greatness instead of settling for success. May not work out, but admire the approach.
Sadly, as a GBP fan it feels like you're going to be able to use a lot of the themes from this article in 2-3 years for when MLF is belatedly let go.
I just had an interesting conversation with someone at 1265 Lombardi. Not sure where this reporting will lead, but LaFleur is an interesting fella.
'Interesting fella' suggests a journey that could take us to far and dangerous places, but one doesn't look for adventure without accepting that they won't see the shore for a long time.
My hunch is....oh who cares about hunches.
Was waiting for this, Tyler. No doubt in my head that Terry and Beane desperately want to win. On them now, and here's to hoping we get a Tampa Bay situation.
Will always be grateful to McD for what he did for this team!
No question, Jen. I covered the 2015 Bills under Rex Ryan at The Buffalo News and -- Good God -- it was basically a Dumper Fire if that Dumpster Fire previously house rabies-infested raccoons sprayed by skunks with a side of Rickety Cricket from Always Sunny.
I'll always give Sean McDermott the credit he deserves for cleaning up the culture. I mean, you had LeSean McCoy's "no weird orgy thing" party drama, Mario Williams quitting on the team (one player told me he cared more about his remote control cars than playing football), Percy Harvin's bizarre disappearance, Rex strolling on up to the podium with a Clemson helmet on, etc., etc. The new head coach fixed this all, ended the drought, brought back respectability.
BUT at some point, the calculus changes. McDermott needed to realize he had something special.
By the time he did, it was really too late.
You could write the same in depth analysis about MLF and the Packers (I hope you will) and I would guess 70-80% would basically be identical.
One main difference is the HC - QB relationship.
Is that enough?
I for one wonder why the decision in GB was the opposite of Buffalo when McD was even way more successful than MLF.
Stef! Stay tuned. Matt LaFleur is two years behind McDermott but situations are similar.
One thing. Maybe I missed it. Have the details of his contract surfaced? Devil's always in those details. Do wonder if Ed Policy gave himself an out somewhere.
Banger. Any insight into how Daboll is viewed by leadership? It’s known that Josh loves him and it makes sense.
I know that his relationship with Terry and Kim Pegula was very, very strong when Brian Daboll was here in Buffalo as the offensive coordinator -- in addition to the Josh relationship.
Where it gets so interesting is the Brandon Beane-Joe Schoen dynamic, right? They are close. They'll be honest with each other. In New York, when things got bad, Schoen put on a headset to listen to what coaches were saying to each other during a game. Not the norm for NFL general managers, no: https://nypost.com/2024/03/06/sports/why-joe-schoen-listened-in-on-brian-daboll-at-low-giants-moment/
Daboll clashed with Wink Martindale, others.
Daboll botched some late-game game management situations.
That stuff is all real.
It's on the Bills to see if he can learn from those mistakes -- past head coaches have! -- and if he can rekindle the magic with Allen through some new X 'n O innovation.
Outstanding Tyler. Think you've made a number of us Packer fans just about become Bills fans, or at least more than curious followers, with this site.
Think best case can go with for the change is maybe it's just time to try something different. Am sure McDermott has his faults, like any coach. And as a defensive guy, you'd like to feel like he emptied the cupboard to maximize the talent on hand and maybe he didn't with a game like Denver. Maybe his defensive system is stale or just not getting the most out of guys.
At the same time, agree with Dave's comments as well here. Josh Allen needs to be better in these games. Even with his brilliant moments that undoubtedly kept Buffalo in the game, just can't have four turnovers. And indeed the defense has given him chances to get the job done-hasn't dominated, but it has given him chances-in a number of playoff games now, and he hasn't capitalized.
Also, don't think the GM's role in this can be minimized. Yes, he continued to draft defense with a defensive-minded coach. But continually, it has failed. If wins & losses are above all on the coach-and they are-then the drafting where he had final say is all on him, no matter how much input McDermott may have had.
Feelings mutual, Adam!
Phenomenal points, Adam. And that means a lot.
Thank you for finding intrigue in another team here at Go Long!
That Packer perspective is important. McGinn always held Aaron Rodgers to the highest of standards in the postseason. Vow to do the same with Josh Allen. Four turnovers -- even if two are a little funky -- are four turnovers. Hence, the tears. Pressure will be extremely high to perform every single January here on out.
Pro writing here, Tyler. Thanks for putting it together.
You could write the exact same article substituting Green Bay Packers and Matt LaFleur.
Great analysis and insights. Didn't appreciate this note until you said it... And this is spot on. "To reach a Super Bowl, the Core Four must be aligned: owner, GM, head coach and quarterback.". Clearly 2 of 3 were not aligned and based on Josh's silence, I suspect he was with the majority. And while I fear Pegula turning the Bills into the Pre-GMJK, Beane is still there even though he's now under immense pressure. One thing I realize, imagine if Pegula fired both.... Do we think Pegula could get the GM and coach hires right??? Not this guy.... God help us!
Another extremely well written article. Quick thoughts:
- GB needed to move on from LaFleur. Much like 13 seconds he's not coming back from that meltdown in GB
- McDermott's poor in game strategy ultimately was his undoing (as it is for a lot of coaches in his tier). 13 seconds. Not draining time vs Jax. Gifting Denver 3 points before halftime. Rushing 3 vs Nix.
- There are only 2 people Buffalo should be going after - Flores or Daboll with Flores being the better target of the two. When it comes to in game strategy and decision making, stealing wins, and squeezing every last win out of a roster Flores is in a tier with few others like Vrabel.
You raise such a worthy debate here, Kevin.
Love this, and I'm not sure what's right or what's wrong.
How should owners handle a playoff loss as downright devastating as the one Green Bay suffered at Soldier Field? Heading into that loss, those on Packers staff had a strong feeling Matt LaFleur would be safe judging by what Ed Policy has said privately and publicly. But the 21-3 meltdown was such a disaster? I heard they started to genuinely worry Policy would fire LaFleur. He didn't. He took a deep breath. Is that the right move? Hell, you read what I wrote. I can't shake the Packers going four more years with Mike McCarthy and the Bills going four more years with McDermott after "13 Seconds."
But I'm sure there are examples of some of the game's best ever suffering brutal playoff losses early on, too.
Think the key is the owner being present and having a true pulse of the org.
Incredible that you could put this all together so quickly after the shocking news. Buffalo was completely railed by the Cooks call and it cost this team a legit chance of going to the Super Bowl and McDermott his job.
I think Daboll could be a real contender for the job given all the success he enjoyed in Buffalo and his relationship with Allen. It always felt like he left for the Giants because he was never going to be more popular and have such a huge opportunity. I think you could plug him in and he would be up to speed very quickly and unlock all Josh has to offer.
If he doesn't get the Browns job you could but Jim Schwartz in on the D, have a solid draft that nets a game changer WR along with some secondary help, and you have a great shot to get it done in a wide open AFC.
Appreciate it, Bob. In truth, I've been talking to people about this all for a while.
Not shocked by the firing.
Anything shy of a Super Bowl trip, I think McDermott is out. But you're right. Jobs are won/lost on the fringes. Eight playoff losses without a SB appearance will get most coaches.
Beane is now on the clock. He has a short window to make things better. No more excuses. I've heard some say he is going to hire a GM to report to him. I truly hope that isn't the case, unless of course that person is better at drafting.
McDermott was not going to be fired after 13 seconds. I don't think they were going to fire him after 2022 either, especially after the Hamlin situation. But 2023 was a home playoff loss to the Chiefs. That should have been it. Instead he got two more chances and nothing changed. It is sad, and the average fan thinks he got screwed, but the reality is it should have happened 2 years ago.
I'm ready to see who they get next. I have long argued that the # of coaches who would be lining up to take over the Bills would be around the block. Who seriously wouldn't want a team with Josh Allen in his prime, a decent OL and a great running game? Maybe they do go with a defensive minded coach to fix McDermott's problem. But I think it will be an offensive guy just b/c that is the way things usually go in the league. None of the names mentioned so far get me that excited, so Beane has his work cut out for him
Good stuff as always, Adam. Loved your analysis on the Happy Hour, too.
One name I've got to look into more here: Grant Udinski.
Thirty years old (!) but, hey, the youth movement worked out pretty well for the team we comp'd Buffalo to on Saturday: https://www.golongtd.com/p/inside-the-hunt-for-qb-hc-harmony
Great article
Obviously McD should have ordered a squib kick in the 13-seconds game, but Josh's inadequacies in the clutch during the last three playoff games and, particularly, his awful performance against the Broncos, had a lot to do with the Bills' failures. Having a true No. 1 and No. 2 receiver might have helped. Good luck finding a coach who will improve on McD's 66% winning percentage.