I'm not a Bills fan first and foremost, but to me this year should be judged differently than others. This is a team that was 6-6 at one point. They finished strong (or strong enough to win 5 straight, most by slim margins), but it never was a juggernaut. That No. 2 seed was a bit of a mirage, and KC is still KC, defending champions, and wouldn't be surprised a bit if they take down the Ravens this week too. This was different from a year ago when Cincinnati just punked what was supposed to be a better Buffalo team in its own house.
As far as Sunday, I don't know what the head coach is supposed to do differently. Allen threw some bombs; receivers dropped them or (on the one play late) it didn't work because of pressure. Allen ran the ball 12 times, so he wasn't being held back. Their run-pass ratio was the same as Kansas City's. Diggs was targeted eight times; only three were completed. The run defense was poor but the bigger point is the defense is not that talented. That sounds like the real issue, and a personnel issue and that's fine. But unless the coach 'is' the GM, that's on the GM or scouting at least as much as the coach.
I can see wanting Allen to have a few more weapons. But the defense needs a major talent infusion, and from afar it looks like those draft misses are hurting more than anything else.
The last set of downs by the Bills offense in the latest KC game really illustrates Ty’s argument for me. A FG there is unfathomable given the time left on the clock. If Josh is truly “unlocked” you let him take the deep shot on 2nd down but when that misses you tell him he still has two downs. It just felt like Josh knew that if they didn’t get the first on 3 and 9 that McD was gonna kick the FG, so he ignored the under route by Kincaid. The message should be clear, “we’re going for the win.” Instead they played not to lose and lost. Again.
This is a bit of a stretch that I don’t agree with at all. If he was playing for the FG, he’d check the ball down like so many talking heads and analysts criticized him for not doing.
If McDermott is as restrictive as you want to believe, Josh doesn’t even take that shot in the end zone.
There’s a a lot of criticism that you can throw at McDermott. This article highlights several examples. But I don’t see this loss reflective of bad coaching as much I do with execution. The star players in Kansas City stepped up...Buffalo’s didn’t.
That still doesn’t address playing for a tie. That’s the point. Ties won’t beat Mahomes. Or Burrow. Unleashing Allen, means you let him win or lose you the game in those situations.
I’m afraid I’m going to sound irrational but this is a “damn the analytics (torpedoes)!” situation. As soon as the game clock ticks under two minutes, McD and Joe should make it clear to Josh that it’s TD or bust. The D couldn’t stop a nose bleed. McD even admitted as such when reflecting on the decision to fake punt.
If the analytics indicate that McD is aggressive then cool. But in these post season games it doesn’t pass the eyeball test.
It wasn’t ideal but it was 4th and 9. It might be a different story if they picked up a few more yards on 3rd down.
There’s a chart that shows coaches aggressiveness on 4th down and McDermott is one of the highest rated. He’s not conservative when it comes to 4th down decision and he almost always uses game analytics to guide his decisions. So I’d bet that the analytics said kicking the FG in that situation was the right move
Some good points in this editorial but the tone makes it seems like this is very personal for Tyler. It’s like he has a narrative in his head and he continues to double down on it.
I’ll disagree with the assessment of Joe Brady. The Bills didn’t choose to make Josh a “game manager” it was their best chance to win against Kansas City. The secondary is the strength of the team. Trent Sherfield might be a great player to write about and a fine special teams player. But when he’s your second option at WR, there’s trouble. Look at what Diggs did during the final 6 games of the season.
I think Brady took the right approach but choosing the attack the weakness the defense and taking what was available in the passing game. Spags was taking away all intermediate and deep routes. When they were there...well you saw the drops.
While this wasn’t the greatest coaching performance, it also wasn’t the sole reason they lost. Execution, roster management, and yes coaching all contributed to this loss.
The fact that Mahomes played the best game of the season didn’t help either
I liked your story. Factual, with a little bit of ire for seasoning. Sometimes, players get too comfortable with head coaches, and their performances sag. Sometimes, players begin to tune out a head coach who has been in the room too many times after losses. It appears to have happened in Buffalo.
I’m happy to be a subscriber because your journalism is well-researched and your opinions are clear and provocative. That said, I think I couldn’t disagree more with your view. The game plan was near-brilliant. Allen executed it near-flawlessly. He had four near-explosive plays - 3 drops and 1 short-armed because of the Chris Jones pressure. The problem is that “near-“ isn’t good enough against a first-ballot Hall of Fame coach and QB. These are 50/50 coin flip games - with two great teams - and unfortunately we are coming up heads in the regular season and tails in the playoffs. I’d be with you if we folded like the Cowboys but this simply isn’t the case. Let’s get younger and faster on defense, some speed at WR and not miss a key throw and a field goal - and I’d like our chances the next time around.
Tyler I really respect your journalism and your take...the struggle I have had the last couple days is thinking WHO would be a better fit for HC or OC?
KC - would have to try and get Nagy? But he doesn't call plays
Cin - Taylor calls plays, Callahan just was nabbed by TEN
Bill B? Vrabel? Arthur Smith? Puke
Any ideas of who would compliment a down field passing attack?
Great question, Phil. I'll have to think on that. I do think there are a ton of really great candidates out there. Bills won't be making a move, though.
I don't agree with the premise that Bills should favor the Offense in the draft. The Patriots were a DEFENSIVE Dynasty, just look at every SB win year in Profootballreference. Every postseason loss, they were avg on D, every SB win, they were elite in fewest points allowed. Manning's Colts, Brees Saints, were depressing Januaries for their fans every year but 1, because they didn't have a defense.
I'd want a top 3 Defense to match with a great QB. Run game, defense, then lean on heroics when that doesn't work. Needing heroics every week because your D isnt elite is a strategy for MVPs and Postseason losses. Happneed every year until Mahomes did the impossible in 2022 with an AVG D, but 2 decades of results shows MVP QBs with the best offenses NEVER win SB. Do what has a proven track record of creating SB champs. Unless the goal is to just lose in Jan and entertain, the D must be a priority when you already have a Great QB.
Even Tom Brady. Look at his MVP seasons, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2017, See a trend? Manning, same thing. Rodgers, Same thing. Those guys win rings when they're killing clock 3rd and 4th quarter instead of slinging to reach 35 Points just to win Weeks 1-16 now 17. The MVP QB is still slinging it every possession, because he HAS to.
Sounds very personal Tyler, much like your attempt before the first KC game. Much of your blame on the coach belongs with GM decisions too. I don't know if changing the coach is the right move, but I really wonder whose bidding you are doing.
I think Bills fans should just be happy that Buffalo has a team in the premier pro sports league in America. Buffalo is the second smallest market in the league, and is not a major metro area.... so all things considered, it’s amazing players and coaches even want to come here to play. We probably got as good as we’re going to get with players and coaches. I understand the frustration, but we should be grateful that the Bills even exist here.
If the bears even get to be regular 44%ers, I will not be surprised if they have the same results as the Bills every year. Eberflus gives me McDerrmott vibes in terms of coaching strategy. Coaches not to lose. So frustrating
Good summation of the situation and question facing Terry Pegula who is the ultimate decision-maker. Terry is a very successful business owner who knows the difference between winning and losing. He doesn't need more money. He bought an NFL franchise to enjoy his retirement while having an opportunity to extend his leadership legacy across a wider public domain. I believe he wants to win a Super Bowl as much as any fan. He bases decisions on results in the marketplace, not personalities. After 6 years of making the playoffs but never making it to the Big Show, he knows the current strategy isn't working, in fact it's regressing and time for change. I'm betting he is already exploring creative ways to inject more elevated leadership to this offense.
I can’t see Terry Pegula pulling a “Ralph Wilson” and inserting himself in trying to problem solve on offense. Everyone I’ve read said that he’s a “hands off” owner when it comes to football decisions.
To your point, despite success the Bills have stalled out in the divisional round for three straight years. I think the moment Ty wrote about comes next year IF the team suffers the same fate.
But who knows - he could end up like Mike McCarthy this year
The Bills play offense exactly like the soon to be fired defensive coordinator for the Packers, Joe Barry, plans his defensive scheme. Dink and dunk and hope the offense can't string together 13 plays for a TD.
I'm not a Bills fan first and foremost, but to me this year should be judged differently than others. This is a team that was 6-6 at one point. They finished strong (or strong enough to win 5 straight, most by slim margins), but it never was a juggernaut. That No. 2 seed was a bit of a mirage, and KC is still KC, defending champions, and wouldn't be surprised a bit if they take down the Ravens this week too. This was different from a year ago when Cincinnati just punked what was supposed to be a better Buffalo team in its own house.
As far as Sunday, I don't know what the head coach is supposed to do differently. Allen threw some bombs; receivers dropped them or (on the one play late) it didn't work because of pressure. Allen ran the ball 12 times, so he wasn't being held back. Their run-pass ratio was the same as Kansas City's. Diggs was targeted eight times; only three were completed. The run defense was poor but the bigger point is the defense is not that talented. That sounds like the real issue, and a personnel issue and that's fine. But unless the coach 'is' the GM, that's on the GM or scouting at least as much as the coach.
I can see wanting Allen to have a few more weapons. But the defense needs a major talent infusion, and from afar it looks like those draft misses are hurting more than anything else.
The last set of downs by the Bills offense in the latest KC game really illustrates Ty’s argument for me. A FG there is unfathomable given the time left on the clock. If Josh is truly “unlocked” you let him take the deep shot on 2nd down but when that misses you tell him he still has two downs. It just felt like Josh knew that if they didn’t get the first on 3 and 9 that McD was gonna kick the FG, so he ignored the under route by Kincaid. The message should be clear, “we’re going for the win.” Instead they played not to lose and lost. Again.
This is a bit of a stretch that I don’t agree with at all. If he was playing for the FG, he’d check the ball down like so many talking heads and analysts criticized him for not doing.
If McDermott is as restrictive as you want to believe, Josh doesn’t even take that shot in the end zone.
There’s a a lot of criticism that you can throw at McDermott. This article highlights several examples. But I don’t see this loss reflective of bad coaching as much I do with execution. The star players in Kansas City stepped up...Buffalo’s didn’t.
That still doesn’t address playing for a tie. That’s the point. Ties won’t beat Mahomes. Or Burrow. Unleashing Allen, means you let him win or lose you the game in those situations.
I’m afraid I’m going to sound irrational but this is a “damn the analytics (torpedoes)!” situation. As soon as the game clock ticks under two minutes, McD and Joe should make it clear to Josh that it’s TD or bust. The D couldn’t stop a nose bleed. McD even admitted as such when reflecting on the decision to fake punt.
If the analytics indicate that McD is aggressive then cool. But in these post season games it doesn’t pass the eyeball test.
It wasn’t ideal but it was 4th and 9. It might be a different story if they picked up a few more yards on 3rd down.
There’s a chart that shows coaches aggressiveness on 4th down and McDermott is one of the highest rated. He’s not conservative when it comes to 4th down decision and he almost always uses game analytics to guide his decisions. So I’d bet that the analytics said kicking the FG in that situation was the right move
Can you link to the chart?
It’s called the Aggressiveness Index. He ranks 7th
https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/buffalo-bills-coach-sean-mcdermott-scores-high-on-aggressiveness-index/article_c1fce132-ffe3-11ed-af6b-67b78cfb61c7.html
Thanks. I found that article as well. I was hoping for something from this year and the link to the actual index is broken.
Some good points in this editorial but the tone makes it seems like this is very personal for Tyler. It’s like he has a narrative in his head and he continues to double down on it.
I’ll disagree with the assessment of Joe Brady. The Bills didn’t choose to make Josh a “game manager” it was their best chance to win against Kansas City. The secondary is the strength of the team. Trent Sherfield might be a great player to write about and a fine special teams player. But when he’s your second option at WR, there’s trouble. Look at what Diggs did during the final 6 games of the season.
I think Brady took the right approach but choosing the attack the weakness the defense and taking what was available in the passing game. Spags was taking away all intermediate and deep routes. When they were there...well you saw the drops.
While this wasn’t the greatest coaching performance, it also wasn’t the sole reason they lost. Execution, roster management, and yes coaching all contributed to this loss.
The fact that Mahomes played the best game of the season didn’t help either
I liked your story. Factual, with a little bit of ire for seasoning. Sometimes, players get too comfortable with head coaches, and their performances sag. Sometimes, players begin to tune out a head coach who has been in the room too many times after losses. It appears to have happened in Buffalo.
Well said, my friend. Thank you.
I’m happy to be a subscriber because your journalism is well-researched and your opinions are clear and provocative. That said, I think I couldn’t disagree more with your view. The game plan was near-brilliant. Allen executed it near-flawlessly. He had four near-explosive plays - 3 drops and 1 short-armed because of the Chris Jones pressure. The problem is that “near-“ isn’t good enough against a first-ballot Hall of Fame coach and QB. These are 50/50 coin flip games - with two great teams - and unfortunately we are coming up heads in the regular season and tails in the playoffs. I’d be with you if we folded like the Cowboys but this simply isn’t the case. Let’s get younger and faster on defense, some speed at WR and not miss a key throw and a field goal - and I’d like our chances the next time around.
Tyler I really respect your journalism and your take...the struggle I have had the last couple days is thinking WHO would be a better fit for HC or OC?
KC - would have to try and get Nagy? But he doesn't call plays
Cin - Taylor calls plays, Callahan just was nabbed by TEN
Bill B? Vrabel? Arthur Smith? Puke
Any ideas of who would compliment a down field passing attack?
Great question, Phil. I'll have to think on that. I do think there are a ton of really great candidates out there. Bills won't be making a move, though.
No, I agree. Probably not worth the brainpower haha.
Great comments all 'round, gang. Finally reading here.
I thank you all for reading our site with an open mind. We welcome all perspectives.
I don't agree with the premise that Bills should favor the Offense in the draft. The Patriots were a DEFENSIVE Dynasty, just look at every SB win year in Profootballreference. Every postseason loss, they were avg on D, every SB win, they were elite in fewest points allowed. Manning's Colts, Brees Saints, were depressing Januaries for their fans every year but 1, because they didn't have a defense.
I'd want a top 3 Defense to match with a great QB. Run game, defense, then lean on heroics when that doesn't work. Needing heroics every week because your D isnt elite is a strategy for MVPs and Postseason losses. Happneed every year until Mahomes did the impossible in 2022 with an AVG D, but 2 decades of results shows MVP QBs with the best offenses NEVER win SB. Do what has a proven track record of creating SB champs. Unless the goal is to just lose in Jan and entertain, the D must be a priority when you already have a Great QB.
Even Tom Brady. Look at his MVP seasons, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2017, See a trend? Manning, same thing. Rodgers, Same thing. Those guys win rings when they're killing clock 3rd and 4th quarter instead of slinging to reach 35 Points just to win Weeks 1-16 now 17. The MVP QB is still slinging it every possession, because he HAS to.
Sounds very personal Tyler, much like your attempt before the first KC game. Much of your blame on the coach belongs with GM decisions too. I don't know if changing the coach is the right move, but I really wonder whose bidding you are doing.
The bidding I'm doing is for our readers.
This is a column. I understand the tone may contrast to much of what we see in the market.
At least someone has the guts to go against the grain and give the opposite perspective from the beat writer mentioned in the article.
Appreciate those reading our stories with an open mind. Thanks, Brett.
I think Bills fans should just be happy that Buffalo has a team in the premier pro sports league in America. Buffalo is the second smallest market in the league, and is not a major metro area.... so all things considered, it’s amazing players and coaches even want to come here to play. We probably got as good as we’re going to get with players and coaches. I understand the frustration, but we should be grateful that the Bills even exist here.
If the bears even get to be regular 44%ers, I will not be surprised if they have the same results as the Bills every year. Eberflus gives me McDerrmott vibes in terms of coaching strategy. Coaches not to lose. So frustrating
I’m a bears fan and Eberflus coaches the exact same way…… not to lose
Good summation of the situation and question facing Terry Pegula who is the ultimate decision-maker. Terry is a very successful business owner who knows the difference between winning and losing. He doesn't need more money. He bought an NFL franchise to enjoy his retirement while having an opportunity to extend his leadership legacy across a wider public domain. I believe he wants to win a Super Bowl as much as any fan. He bases decisions on results in the marketplace, not personalities. After 6 years of making the playoffs but never making it to the Big Show, he knows the current strategy isn't working, in fact it's regressing and time for change. I'm betting he is already exploring creative ways to inject more elevated leadership to this offense.
I can’t see Terry Pegula pulling a “Ralph Wilson” and inserting himself in trying to problem solve on offense. Everyone I’ve read said that he’s a “hands off” owner when it comes to football decisions.
To your point, despite success the Bills have stalled out in the divisional round for three straight years. I think the moment Ty wrote about comes next year IF the team suffers the same fate.
But who knows - he could end up like Mike McCarthy this year
The Bills play offense exactly like the soon to be fired defensive coordinator for the Packers, Joe Barry, plans his defensive scheme. Dink and dunk and hope the offense can't string together 13 plays for a TD.