Smash the Window, Part I: ‘Don’t ever stop’
The Buffalo Bills have been on the precipice of the Super Bowl. This series examines how they finally bust through. First, precedent. Bill Polian and the Colts feel like they're looking in a mirror.
The man who understands the raw pain of the Buffalo Bills best lives in Charlotte, is currently vacationing in Florida, spent a decade-plus in Indianapolis and is forever a Western New Yorker. Whenever Bill Polian returns, he’s inundated with “Welcome home!” pleasantries from locals.
He’s in the Hall of Fame. He also happens to be the rare Bills legend who finally did blotch the Vince Lombardi Trophy with his fingerprints.
And even today — at 81 years old — the agony of playoff defeat is fresh. Polian vividly remembers doing everything in his power to win a Super Bowl, only for the collective guts of all involved to be extracted in the playoffs. Repeatedly. Five times as the Bills’ general manager, including three of the four Super Bowls. Once as the GM sprinkling pixie dust over the expansion Carolina Panthers. Then, of course, six times as the Indianapolis Colts’ architect. That’s 12 strolls through a somber locker room, 12 nights he laid his head down to sleep knowing that — when he woke up? — it was time to start all… over… again.
Until finally, in 2006, his Colts slayed Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in the conference title game and then triumphed in Super Bowl XLI over the Chicago Bears in Miami, Fla.
The emotion that night at rain-soaked Dolphin Stadium was euphoric. Yet, strange.
“Really hard to describe,” Polian says. “I don’t know that I could even put it into words. Almost relief, especially when you’ve waited a long time like we did — and the Bills fans and franchise has — it is kind of a ‘Wow, we finally got it.’”
That night, Polian couldn’t help but think of his Bills teams that’d sell their souls for this moment. This week, he puts vacation on hold to think of the Bills today. A group that’s in the throes of its own playoff suffering. Soon, the 2024 Bills will reconvene in Orchard Park, N.Y. for OTAs and yet another climb to another playoff moment will begin in earnest. There are always items on the football to-do list. Who starts at safety? Which “X” wide receiver should the GM draft? When should the head coach go for it fourth down? But Polian knows the psychology behind the climb is most important.
“First of all, keep banging on the door,” Polian says. “That’s number one. Don’t ever stop. Don’t ever be discouraged.”
His mind races back to penning a letter to the editor in response to legendary Buffalo News columnist Larry Felser writing that he couldn’t take another Super Bowl loss, that (as Polian recalls) he’d rather see the Bills stammer through a losing season. Felser was far from alone. This was the dominant sentiment, Buffalo to Bangladesh. Polian wasn’t happy.
Polian wanted everyone in the city to know the Bills wouldn’t stop trying to reach the Super Bowl.
“That’s our goal,” says Polian. “Anything less for us is a disappointment. So that’s the way you have to focus and it’s very important to focus the organization on that. You can’t let the naysayers and the disappointment seep in.”
Writers today still tend to chime in time to time, I suppose.
No Super Bowl Window is debated more than this one because no team in NFL history has won more games over a five-year stretch (63) without reaching the Super Bowl. A finishing touch is obviously lacking. The AFC is loaded again, this remains a cruel Patrick Mahomes World and coaching has been suboptimal in January. But it’s not quite time to pen this era’s eulogy — not yet. Facing their most critical offseason since its string of four straight AFC titles in the 90s, there’s only one solution.
The Bills must obliterate that window into a million pieces.
This has resembled a team maxed out, but they’ve been taking aggressive steps toward changing its makeup.
First came bittersweet farewells. Gone are center Mitch Morse, cornerback Tre’Davious White, safety Jordan Poyer, wide receiver Gabe Davis, special-teamer Siran Neal and linebacker Tyrel Dodson due to money, age or injury. This was the franchise’s most pronounced exodus since Bruce Smith, Thurman Thomas and Andre Reed were let go Feb. 10, 2000. But like most breakups, this was also 100 percent necessary. Smart. GM Brandon Beane guarantees the Bills now get younger and more athletic on defense. Cap-clearing also created enough space for the most underrated signing in NFL free agency: wide receiver Curtis Samuel.
Hunting season has not concluded at wide receiver, either. Not by a longshot.
The NFL Draft presents a golden opportunity to find this franchise’s best player more weaponry. Load up, unapologetically, because Buffalo’s 1-of-1, flamethrowing quarterback is still in his prime. It’s a joke that Josh Allen received one MVP vote because Josh Allen proved once again that if he’s permitted to be himself, the Bills will always contend. By season’s end, this 6-foot-5, 237-pounder made it obvious — to everyone — that all shackles should promptly be hurled over Niagara Falls. Never to be discussed again.
Sean McDermott may… may… be evolving? We’ll see. Last season ended with another groundhog-day thud but there were positives to glean from the month of football before that loss to KC. McDermott undeniably coached with newfound belief in his players. Most telling, he named Joe Brady, 34, his permanent offensive coordinator and Bobby Babich, 40, his defensive coordinator. Inspiring hirings he probably doesn’t consider earlier in his career. Both moves hint at a willingness to embrace more of a CEO-like role that’d allow McDermott to better see the forest for the trees.
There’s precedent. Polian sees his 2006 Colts in these 2024 Bills.
January heartbreak was an annual rite of passage in Indy, too. After each brutal defeat, the GM made a point to gather his front office together and remind them all that they’re not fans. Thus, they do not have “the luxury of being upset.” Both Polian and head coach Tony Dungy allotted exactly 24 hours of mourning and then it was back to work. Back to doing exactly what he wrote in that letter to the editor in the 90s. “We’re going to make it,” Polian would tell everyone who’d listen in the Colts organization. “You have to believe that. And if you don’t believe it, then no one else will — including the players.”
Standing in the way of those Colts were the Patriots, and Tom Brady. The greatest player ever.
Standing in the way of these Bills are the Kansas City Chiefs, and Patrick Mahomes. The quarterback who’ll one day surpass Brady.
The window is not closed, but the window also won’t smash itself.
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Relief rushes through members of the Indianapolis Colts on-demand. When players think back to the night they slayed the king, they become an exultant blend of someone who just won the lottery and a tearful father on his baby girl’s wedding day. Dispatching the Chicago Bears? Pshh. That was a formality. Forget that soggy night in South Florida.
KO’ing the New England Patriots, tight end Dallas Clark assures, “was our Super Bowl.”
Marlin Jackson undercut a Tom Brady crosser for an interception with 16 seconds remaining, slid to victory and — as the RCA Dome crowd roared the roar of a million Hoosier gyms — Bill Belichick clutched the collar of his hoodie with both hands. For a few seconds, it looked like the coach may tear that hoodie apart at the seams. Instead, Belichick wafts his fingers through his not-yet-graying hair in total disbelief. He wasn’t alone. Clark still struggles to find the words. “To frickin’ knock off those guys. They were big brother. They were it for us. They made us… ‘Ugh, you again!?’”
Jackson proudly Simba’d the football high into the sky. Peyton Manning slapped an arm band against his hand with an aw-shucks smile. Head coach Tony Dungy held up a pair of clenched fists.
Backup quarterback Jim Sorgi can remember the emotions now.
“Boom!” Sorgi recalls. “We finally did it. We made it.”
The 800-pound weight was lifted off the shoulders of the entire franchise. This was easily one of the most satisfying wins for any NFL team in decades. But before this glorious moment — the Bills’ current daydream — Indianapolis had burnished a reputation as Grade-A chokers. All six playoff defeats before ’06 were painful. Especially the final three. In both ’03 and ’04, the Colts went 12-4, Manning won league MVP and the Patriots spanked them in the tournament. Manning threw four interceptions in a 24-14 title-game loss at Foxborough. Then the Colts mustered all of three points on offense in a divisional playoff loss at Foxborough. An NFL-record 49 passing touchdowns from Manning rang hollow.
This was clearly a regular-season football operation bound to self-destruct in do-or-die situations.
Then, came 2005.
The Colts’ own “13 Seconds”-level debacle that could’ve broken their spirit for good.
After making a legit run at an undefeated season — they didn’t lose until Dec. 18 — the No. 1-seeded Colts were set to host the No. 6-seeded Pittsburgh Steelers in the divisional round. Better yet? Their arch-nemesis Patriots lost at Denver the day prior. Sorgi remembers sitting in his hotel room that night, thrilled that the Colts would have the chance to play at home, vs. Denver, with a ticket to the Super Bowl in Detroit on the line.
Dungy grew up just outside of Detroit. This was a short four-hour drive for fans.
This… proved too good to be true. Right to a surreal final minute.
Leading 21-18, the Steelers opted for a Jerome Bettis handout at the two-yard line, “The Bus” famously fumbled, Indy’s Nick Harper scooped the ball up and off the cornerback went with nothing but green acres and a backpedaling, clumsy quarterback standing between him and football immortality. Ben Roethlisberger miraculously spun, lunged, tripped Harper up at the Colts’ 42-yard line and Mike Vanderjagt soon shanked a potential game-tying kick.
“You win that game, you play an opponent you feel pretty good that you’d beat,” Sorgi says. “Go on. We would’ve played the Seattle Seahawks. That’s a Super Bowl that we could have won.”
Exactly how the Bills felt about the two games after their 42-36 overtime loss to KC in 2021.
Assistants in Buffalo were not thrilled with how their boss handled this surreal defeat. Tight end Dawson Knox told us the game was “an unspoken tragedy.” Trauma wasn’t met head-on. Each time the Colts suffered such numbing playoff losses, Polian and Dungy tried to own the loss because both knew disaster to this magnitude — immortalized as the “The Tackle” in Pittsburgh — cannot be ignored.
Polian allowed for those 24 hours of mourning and told everybody to wait until the end of the week to evaluate players — “when all the bile is out of your system,” he says. The GM wanted all scouts, all coaches to avoid authoring overly emotional reports. The Colts needed to evaluate everyone on a season-wide basis. Still, Polian instituted what he called a “critical efficiency grade,” which assessed how everyone performed in the playoffs. Those who clearly did not rise to the occasion were “addressed,” as in demoted or released or dealt.
Age is always a factor. Polian likes that Buffalo is getting younger on D.
But it’s imperative that the GM and the head coach of a perennial contender grade players on such a critical curve.
The mission isn’t joining the 44 Percent Club in the AFC postseason, nor scoring sleek “AFC East Champs” hats for rollicking IG reels that stick it to the “haters.” Any team armed with a Top 3 quarterback — like Manning then and Allen now — should be obsessed with playoff performance, should want to slam a virtual Simulate to Playoffs button to big-boy football. Buffalo’s 2024 season will not truly commence until January 2025, so it’s important for Beane to judge the roster accordingly. As constructed, this core took the Bills to a point. Change was needed.
“When you’re the Bills, the standard is higher,” Polian says. “You want guys who can win the Super Bowl. Not guys who are just good enough to make the playoffs. You want people who can win the Super Bowl.”
This critical efficiency grade isn’t overly complicated.
Beyond the obvious checklist of physical traits and system fits, Polian sought one trait above all else: “Playmakers.”
“You want the guys who are going to play best in the biggest games,” Polian says. “So that’s Josh Allen, that’s Jim Kelly. It’s Steve Tasker, it’s Andre Reed. Those are the guys that you’d like to have at every position. On the offensive line, I don’t care how they match up against some numb-nuts team like the Jets. With us (in Indy), our benchmark was always the Patriots. How good are we as opposed to the Patriots because that’s who we have to beat to go to the Super Bowl. That was the measuring stick.”
Goodbye, Vanderjagt. Hello, Adam Vinatieri.
Polian started his trudge back to the playoffs by replacing the most accurate kicker in NFL history — one who drilled 42 straight field goals — for the most playoff-clutch kicker in history. It wasn’t cheap. Polian needed sign-off from owner Jim Irsay to pay Vinatieri $12 million deal over five years with a record $3.5 million signing bonus. This sort of money was “unheard of” for a kicker but, as Polian notes, “it got him away from New England.”
All along, Polian ferociously built the Colts through the lens of Manning after choosing the Tennessee QB over Washington State’s Ryan Leaf. From weapon (Edgerrin James, No. 4 overall, 1999) to weapon (Reggie Wayne, No. 30, 2001) to weapon (Dallas Clark, No. 24, 2003) to another weapon this 2006 draft after wisely letting James walk in free agency: running back Joseph Addai at No. 30 overall. With Hall-of-Famer Marvin Harrison, everyone fed off each other. By ’06, Clark especially was ready for liftoff. As Manning detailed in “Blood and Guts,” this Colts offense shifted into a new gear with the versatile tight end’s ascension in the slot late in the 2006 season. If a linebacker covered Clark, it was easy pickings. If a corner lined up over him, the QB audibled to a running back that side.
Did Indy have a dire need for a tight end? No. But Polian was determined to build a monster on offense.
The rookie Addai also rushed for 1,081 yards and seven scores this season.
“We always wanted to remain explosive,” Polian says. “Peyton and Brady were in a class by themselves. You don’t want to rob them of weaponry, so you had to always be conscious adding to that.”
With Manning becoming the richest player in NFL history in ’04 and the weapons around him warranting extensions, Polian also knew he’d need to build a defense “that could ultimately shut Brady down” via the draft. Those Colts also faced the same pickle as these Bills in drafting at the end of rounds each season. That’s where Dungy’s “Tampa 2” was so useful. Indy didn’t need to overspend for vets in free agency because young players could grasp this straightforward scheme quickly. (“Which, by the way,” Polian adds, “it’s not dissimilar to what Sean uses.”) Polian selected one of this era’s best safeties in ‘04 (Bob Sanders, 44th overall), two more cornerbacks in ’05 (Marlin Jackson at No. 29, Kelvin Hayden at No. 60), and then Tim Jennings (No. 62) and Antoine Bethea (No. 207) in ’06.
Polian remembers loud “Kelvin who?” backlash that ’06 draft. The JUCO transfer played one year of wide receiver and one year of cornerback at Illinois.
“The media went nuts: Why are they taking this guy?” Polian recalls. “But he fit what Tony wanted and our personnel people worked hard to find those kind of guys.”
Free agency is unequivocally fun. Kirk Cousins may launch the Atlanta Falcons, just as Calvin Ridley, L’Jarius Sneed and Lloyd Cushenberry III make the Tennessee Titans relevant overnight. But it’s as true in 2024 as it was in 2006… and 1996… and 1966. The best way to remain a contender — year-in, year-out — is by nailing picks in the draft. Stripped down to its essence, football’s won with area scouts like Kansas City’s Greg Castillo knowing damn well that cornerback Trent McDuffie will become a star. This conviction is what compelled the Chiefs to trade ahead of the Bills in ’22 to select the Washington corner and create juuuust a little more separation between these two teams. That’s all it takes.
Buffalo took Florida’s Kaiir Elam and the difference was felt in playoffs.
The margins between the Bills and Chiefs are thin now.
The margins between the Colts and Patriots were thin then.
Do not expect Bills players to entertain questions about their Goliath, but Goliath is on the mind. Everyone will be thinking about Reid and Mahomes and Kelce and playoff losses past. It’s human nature. The Colts couldn’t escape visions of an inevitable rematch with Belichick and Brady in their brains as the 2006 season began. Barring injury, they knew 11+ wins were a guarantee. The Patriots were a daily “elephant in the room,” says Sorgi.
Yet the sight of that virtual elephant didn’t bum guys out.
Abject disappointment never poisoned the building.
“The organization was a machine,” Sorgi says. “You just knew year-in and year-out with the leadership, we were going to work our butts off. We were going to do whatever we could to take the next step. And even being punched in the mouth, you knew, ‘OK, punched in the mouth, let’s get back up. What did we do wrong? Let’s go back and dissect the season and just try to get it right the next year.’ That was the mentality.”
To the team’s leaders, playing football was no job as this ’06 season commenced. Getting over the hump, says Sorgi, became “personal.”
“They didn’t allow the mindset of failure to creep in,” he adds.
Failure should’ve crept in and poisoned the building for good when the Colts were flogged to medieval proportions by the Jacksonville Jaguars on Dec. 10, 2006. All week, coaches re-drilled tackling fundamentals with the league’s 32nd-ranked run defense, one Dungy referred to as “soft” earlier in the season to the press. It didn’t work. The Colts allowed the second-most rushing yards since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger. A lewd 375 yards and four touchdowns on the ground screamed to the world, again, that the Colts were destined to wilt as playoff frauds.
Jacksonville’s 42 attempts were straight out of a Pop Warner game. All that was missing was a running clock and a mercy rule because the Colts flat-out flailed like a team quitting on its coach.
Publicly, Dungy remained calm. At his postgame presser, he said the problems were fixable.
Privately? Dungy was even calmer. On the plane ride home, he told Polian that his message to the team the next day would be simple: “We’re not changing a thing.” He knew the team held Sanders out of this game to ensure he’d be healthy for the playoffs. He’d make a major difference. Maybe they’d make a slight tweak at Sam linebacker, but Dungy’s edict was clear: “business as usual.” He believed in this defense.
No part of Polian wanted to politely ask Dungy to panic on that long flight home from Jacksonville,
“That’s why Tony and I worked so well together,” he says. “We saw the world the same way.”
Dungy’s words of wisdom stick — for life. Clark finds himself preaching the coach’s “Perception vs. Reality” message to his kids at least once a week. NFL life isn’t nearly as luxurious as everyone holding a beer at home thinks, just as life for friends on Instagram isn’t reality. Adversity is a guarantee. Either you accept this reality or run, hide, quit. No wonder Polian told players to listen to Dungy and nobody else through the bleak times. Not Mom, not Dad, not cousins or brothers. “Right here,” says Clark, imagining himself in the Colts locker room again. “Everybody right here in this room is all it takes. If we don’t trust each other, it doesn’t work.”
First up in the playoffs was Kansas City’s Larry Johnson, a back who rushed for more yards than anyone else the last two seasons.
Carnage was expected. Johnson gained 32 yards on 13 carries.
Next up, Baltimore. Nothing came easy for the Colts —they settled for five field goals — but this win featured arguably Manning’s finest throw ever. One that Ray Lewis still does not believe. On third down, with 3:57 to go, the QB laced an out route to Clark through a three-inch window.
Then, they got the Patriots. In their house.
The night before the AFC Championship, center Jeff Saturday put everyone’s thoughts into words. Players will never forget four words specifically during his team speech: “This is our time.” Everyone was fed up walking into the locker room as a playoff loser. The game began and the Patriots busted out the paddle to humilate the Colts once again. The visitors stormed to a 21-3 lead on Asante Samuel’s pick-six of Manning. The two teams exchanged punts and — as the Colts drove downfield the final 2 minutes of the first half — Polian turned to Dom Anile, the team’s personnel exec. “If Vinny can make this field goal,” he said, “Tony will get the defense calmed down and we’ll be fine.”
Anile told him he’s crazy. Vinatieri cut the deficit to 21-6 and then, inside the locker room, Dungy gave a speech that also lives in Colts lore. Dungy informed players that they’d score on their first possession, get a stop and then score again. That’s exactly what happened.
Tied ballgame. 21-21.
“You could tell the belief started to kick in,” Sorgi says. “We started to get momentum on our side. And it just felt like it was our time.
“I don’t think the belief ever left. I think it just needed to be woken up.”
Adds Clark: “I tell you what, that halftime speech. It wasn’t George Halas. It wasn’t Lombardi. It wasn’t a big-time speech. It was, ‘Hey, guys. Do your job and just do it a little bit better. We don’t need to change anything.’ OK, there’s your trust. Who doesn’t go, ‘OK! We’ve got to change!’ No, if we keep doing what we’re doing, we’re close. We came out and played a little bit harder and just executed a little bit more and we were able to make some big plays. … That game was our Super Bowl.
The tight end selected to evolve this Colts offense had the game of his life: six catches for 137 yards. Briefly, Sorgi thought he’d need to replace Manning. With 10:43 remaining, and the game knotted at 28-28, Manning banged his hand on a helmet and CBS cameras captured the QB telling Sorgi two words: “Be ready.” Sorgi might’ve looked calm, but… he was not. Unlike the previous two seasons, he didn’t get any mop-up duty to close the regular season. Sorgi attempted zero passes all season. (“A wave of emotions,” Sorgi says, chuckling.)
Of course, Manning returned the next drive and delivered a 52-yarder to Clark.
Exactly as Polian and Dungy hoped, defense needed to win the game. Jackson picked off Brady. On to Super Bowl XLI, there was Hayden — the former Illinois wideout, the Polian gamble — picking off a Rex Grossman pass and returning it 56 yards to paydirt to secure rings for all. Both were the type of athletic plays Polian dreamt of with his “critical efficiency scale.” The Bills were so, so close to experiencing the same goosebumps Polian felt the night Indianapolis finally beat New England.
Instead, Buffalo lost to KC. Once again, the defense was gashed.
Says Sorgi: “Our monster was the New England Patriots. And it just seems like the Buffalo Bills monster is the Kansas City Chiefs. That’s the team.”
Through the team’s four playoff losses since squandering a 16-0 lead in Houston to cap 2019, the Bills defense has allowed 16 touchdowns and eight field goals on 32 non-kneeldown drives and 134 points (3.52 per drives), while forcing only six punts and creating only one turnover.
Title games are won with fearless playmakers who aren’t tense in such defining moments.
Incorporating new faces for the next playoff moment is a must — whoever’s been at fault.
Ask Polian why a totally different Bills defense has shown up at the worst possible times, and he pushes back. Cites injuries. Vows McDermott will find a way to piece together a winning defensive gameplan in the playoffs. The ex-GM still talks to Marv Levy regularly. Virtually every move McDermott and Beane make, he says, is exactly what they would’ve done running the Bills.
“The worm turns eventually, as long as you keep banging on the door and as long as you keep doing the right things,” Polian says. “And they do all the right things as an organization. … We understand exactly why they’re doing it. Their thinking is so similar to ours. And that is proven. That approach wins.
“They want high-character people. They want people who are really good athletes, who love football, who play hard, who are smart. They understand who they are and what kind of player they need. They just keep their eye on the target and keep doing it their way. It’s so similar to what we did, in approach, that it’s eerie.”
A trip to one Super Bowl, let alone four, would certainly suffice.
Find a playmaker on defense. Draft a wide receiver. (Or two.)
Feed the beast that is Josh Allen.
Instill true belief 1 through 53 on the roster and perhaps these ’24 Bills will author the same storybook postseason as those ’06 Colts.
The most optimistic scenario:
1/ Someone at OBD showed McD TD's 3 parter from November, they read it, counseled him and he turns into a CEO that is not exactly liked, but at least respected. His charges are free to scheme and plan accordingly. (Green shoots of this: the last 6 games of the reg szn and the playoffs.)
2/ Beane pulls a Gutekunst 2022 & nails this draft with players offensive talent who come in and allow ...
3/ Your stud QB to elevate those around him while providing a platform for his own prodigious talents which...
4/ Allow him to impact games while also avoiding injury as he heads into his year 28 season...
5/ ...which gives the defense a tiny bit of breathing room to "re-tool" while continually finding ways to turn lower tiered talent into serviceable starters (Benford, Dodson, etc etc).
The division is still very much winnable and the schedule, while daunting, is filled with fun matchups which, as TD (and Bill Polian knew)...you just have to make the playoffs and, eventually, things will break your way (just ask PM18 and Matthew Stafford, etc.). The Chiefs are obviously formidable, etc etc, but hey, with JA17 - you're always gonna have a chance.
Great article, Tyler. I understand having a "C" on your chest isn't the only way to be a leader on a team, but the mass exodus of formal leadership this offseason - Poyer, Hyde, Morse, Davis (+ White) - has me wondering who will step up on the player side to make sure failure doesn't creep into anyone's mind and nerves are calmed when things don't go as planned.