Part 5, QB: The Fernando Mendoza Question

Franchise-changer or "goody two-shoes?" Scouts have many thoughts on the Indiana QB. Also: What do we make of Ty Simpson? Teams eyeing a savior picked a bad year to need a quarterback...

Mar 31, 2026

This is the 42^nd year, and the fifth at Go Long, in which Bob McGinn has written a position-by-position series previewing the NFL draft. Previously, it appeared in the Green Bay Press-Gazette (1985-’91), the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (1992-2017), BobMcGinnFootball.com (2018-’19) and The Athletic (2020-’21). Until 2014, many personnel people were quoted by name. The series reluctantly adopted an all-anonymous format in 2015 at the request of many scouts. Listed times in the 40-yard dash reflect the average of hand-held clockings from the combine and pro days. Electronic times from the combine aren’t compatible with most pro days and therefore weren’t utilized.

Fifth of 12 parts: quarterbacks.

By Bob McGinn

What was expected to be an exceptional draft year for quarterbacks has turned into a nightmare for NFL teams.

“Horrible,” “very weak” and “terrible” were just some of the adjectives used by executives in personnel to describe what’s left of a quarterback class almost completely gone sour.

In almost unprecedented fashion, one quarterback after another forecast for the first round ran aground. Some faded due to performance or injury, others failed to meet expectations and wisely returned to school.

“There’s not a real difference-maker,” said one scout who painstakingly graded all the quarterbacks. “There’s no bona-fide, can’t-miss quarterback.”

For him, that included Fernando Mendoza, who ascended during Indiana’s drive to the national championship while almost all his peers disintegrated. When asked to compare Mendoza to a sundry list of quarterbacks when they were entering the draft, one veteran evaluator said he’d rate Mendoza behind Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford, Justin Herbert, Drake Maye, Sam Darnold, Sam Bradford, Matt Ryan and Carson Palmer. He said Mendoza would be about even as a prospect with C.J. Stroud and Joe Flacco.

In mid-September, ESPN’s Pete Thamel polled 25 NFL scouts and executives to see who they projected as the top quarterback in the 2026 draft. South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers led with eight votes followed by LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, seven; Miami’s Carson Beck and Oklahoma’s John Mateer, three; Penn State’s Drew Allar, two, and Arizona State’s Sam Leavitt and Texas’s Arch Manning, one.

In early May, one week after the 2025 draft, Dane Brugler published a way-too-early 2026 mock draft in The Athletic. “Five passers are included, and a few others could push for the first round,” he wrote. “It should feature a stark upgrade in quarterback talent.”

His mock included Manning at No. 1, Sellers at No. 2, Allar at No. 5, Nussmeier at No. 16 and Mendoza at No. 27.

Todd McShay’s early top-10 included Nussmeier No. 1, Sellers No. 4, Clemson’s Cade Klubnik No. 5 and Allar No. 7.

Manning, Sellers and Mateer went back to school, as did Oregon’s Dante Moore. Beck was OK, Klubnik’s star waned and Nussmeier struggled while playing hurt. Allar, after a slow start, had his season end after six games with an ankle injury.

Alabama’s Ty Simpson, a first-year starter, played well in the first two months before fading down the stretch. Somewhat surprisingly, he declared for the draft. Leavitt went back, too.

There was some hope that Ole Miss’s Trinidad Chambliss might provide a second-day option but that ended when the Mississippi Supreme Court granted him another year of eligibility. He isn’t in this draft.

“I actually thought the best quarterback in this draft class stayed in school and got paid a lot of money to go to Texas Tech,” one scout said in reference to Brendan Sorsby, who had been at Cincinnati. “I’ll take this guy over Mendoza all day long. It’s amazing how these guys stay in school. It just changes things.

“Simpson is a backup. I didn’t like him. This is really a bunch of backups. They are not starter-caliber guys.”

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QUARTERBACKS

1. FERNANDO MENDOZA, Indiana (6-4 ½, 236, no 40, 1): Became the first player from the Big Ten to win the Heisman Trophy since Ohio State quarterback Troy Smith in 2006. “He was the steady Eddie and part, a big part, of a really good team and now he emerges as the No. 1,” one scout said. “He’s got a lot of really good qualities. He’s big, tough and smart. He’s motivated, driven. He’s overcome a lot of adversity. He went from not being invited to walk on at Miami to Yale to, hey, we’ll take you at Cal to getting beat up out there to some extent,” said one scout.

“I think anybody that needs a quarterback would have to take him. I think he’s going to rise high. He’s wired that way. People say too many RPO’s, not enough dropback passes to go up in leagues. I think he can get past some of that. Is he an anticipatory thrower? Probably not, but you cannot deny the fact that he made big plays in big moments all season long. He’s not a nifty scrambler but he’ll just take the gap and take off. He can be an effective runner. He’d run better than 4.8.” Two-star recruit ranked as the No. 72 quarterback in 2022. Redshirted in ’22. Started the last eight games in ’23 (NFL passer rating of 85.9) before going 6-7 as the starter in ’24 (99.1). Moved to IU in ’25 and went 15-0 (130.4). Career rating was 107.7. “I saw him early in the year and I thought he was just a guy,” said a second scout. “They thought he’d be a little better than the guy (Kurtis Rourke) they had a year ago. As the season wore on he played better and better and better. His physical attributes are very average. Probably a 4.8 40, or 4.9. But he’ll knock out the IQ tests and get on the board and do all that stuff. He just throws a very accurate ball and knows the offense. All those things you want a quarterback to do, like Tom Brady did, he’s going to be that.” Just the Hoosiers’ third All-Big Ten first-team quarterback, joining Harry Gonso (1967) and Antwaan Randle El (2001). “He’s not going to get to the Raiders and say, ‘Hey, I’m going to transform this team,’” a third scout said. “You better have a lot around him. He’s going to be good. He’s got feel for it. Really good eyes. When he gets in rhythm he’s really, really good. But when he gets sped up things don’t work out too well for him. He’s got enough movement, but if he has to quickly move in the pocket to get out of trouble he struggles because he’s so big and his feet aren’t super quick. We’ve seen him play great in big moments but he’s had a lot of average games. Even the National Championship game, you’re not looking at him saying, ‘This is the first pick in the draft.’ But here we are.” Outstanding student. President of the campus ministry. Graduated from Cal in three years with a degree in business administration. “Put it this way,” a fourth scout said. “Jayden Daniels, Caleb Williams and Drake Maye … he would be below those guys. I saw them right away as franchise quarterbacks. This guy lacks mobility. You need brains, accuracy and wheels. Where are the wheels on this guy? Did you see him on that touchdown (in the CFP title game)? It looked like he was stuck in slow motion. I don’t see the escape ability. The Raiders have two tackles but the inner three of that offensive line is bad.” Ran for 473 yards and 11 touchdowns. “It’d scare me to pick him in the first round,” said a fifth scout. “You don’t see enough create. You don’t see enough driving the ball down the field. Goody two-shoes personality. It’s going to be different in that pro locker room. The difference between college and the pros is not the size and speed. It’s the people you’re with. I just have this suspicion he’s going to rub people the wrong way the way he talks and acts.” From Miami.

2. TY SIMPSON, Alabama (6-1, 212, no 40, 1-2): Backed up Bryce Young in 2022 and Jalen Milroe in 2023-’24, throwing just 50 passes in three seasons. Started in ’25. “You could argue Ty Simpson over Mendoza,” one scout said. “The biggest concern is he’s a one-year starter. Started off really hot and then he got banged up and was dealing with injuries toward the end of the season. He’s really talented. He’s an underrated athlete. He’s got good feet and escapability. He’s really tough. Probably his best trait is his football intelligence and instincts. Kid’s always in command. Really good pre- and post-snap. You see it on film. He can manipulate safeties with his eyes. His footwork is really good, both in the shotgun and coming out from under center. He’s got a quick, compact release. His touch is really good. With the right team he can be a solid starter. I think he’d run 4.6, 4.65.” His father, Jason, owns a 130-98 record as coach of FCS Tennessee-Martin since 2006. Jason played quarterback at Mississippi State for two years. “Son of a coach,” a second scout said. “Good accuracy, smart. At one point during the season he was right up there at or above Mendoza.” Finished his career with a passer rating of 100.6. Also ran for 223 and five TDs. “He was as efficient as anybody in the country in the first eight weeks,” said a third scout. “Then he wasn’t 100%, got into tougher games and competition, didn’t play as good. He has subtle pocket movement. I think he’s a good enough scrambler. Not a great arm. He throws good. His greatest strength is he is a great kid. He’s still no certain thing. But there probably aren’t as many doubts (compared) to the others.” Five-star recruit from Martin, Tenn. “Fifteen starts, one-year starter,” said a fourth scout. “He’s a little guy that’s wild and inconsistent. He doesn’t have good feel for timing. He’s terrible against pressure. He’s a good little athlete but he doesn’t escape pressure well. He should have stayed in school. You’re really just gambling. There’s nothing on tape where you say, ‘He should have come out. He’s going to be a first-rounder.’ It’s years away with this guy.”

3. TAYLEN GREEN, Arkansas (6-6, 228, 4.39, 1-3): Compared by one scout to Colin Kaepernick (6-4 1/3, 230, 4.53), a second-round pick in 2011. “Damn right Kaepernick was good, and a lot of people crushed him (pre-draft), too,” said one scout. “The guy’s interesting. At least with this guy you’ve got something to work with. Those other guys are just limited. The athletic ability is crazy. His offensive line was awful. Every single play he’s running for his life, and he can run. He does have pocket feel. He’s poised and tough. He’s got some vision. The accuracy comes and goes. There might be a little ceiling on how great he can beat you as a passer. He sits in the pocket when he has time. When he gets out he looks downfield. When he runs it’s over with but he doesn’t look to do that. He’s not completely raw.” Spent three years at Boise State, redshirting in 2021 and starting 22 games in 2022-’23. His passer rating there was 88.6. In 24 starts for the Razorbacks his rating was 91.4 for a career mark of 90.3. “I thought he had glimpses of Randall Cunningham,” a second scout said. “I was intrigued by Green when I watched (2024) tape. Does anybody have enough time to work with another Justin Fields, who is now going to be on his fourth team in four years? He’s worth a shot as a dual-threat quarterback. But he lacks accuracy and all that.” Rushed 459 times for 2,405 (5.2) and 35 TDs. “Career completion mark was 60.1%. “He can run the RPOs,” a third scout said. “Long strider. Tall, high-cut athlete. Has very good scrambling ability. His footwork needs to be refined. He’s been primarily in the gun. He’s efficient in his accuracy on short and intermediate passes. Got good arm strength. Flashes touch and layering. He’s just inconsistent with his decisions and accuracy on the move against pressure. He can make some explosive plays but also has some bad, bad turnovers. There’s a lot of peaks and valleys. Is he ever going to be a No. 1? I don’t know but I think he can be a solid No. 2.” His 40 time, vertical jump (43 ½) and broad jump (11-2) all easily surpassed the other quarterbacks. “Talentwise, he is unique,” said a fourth scout. “But he is purely developmental. He’d be ideal to go somewhere like St. Louis (LA Rams) where he could just sit and learn. Because he has everything you want athletically and sizewise. He needs like the Full Monty, the full developmental rebuild.” Three-star recruit from Lewisville, Texas.

4. DREW ALLAR, Penn State (6-5, 230, no 40, 2-3): Played in 10 games, throwing 60 passes, as a true freshman in 2022 before starting 35 games in 2023-’25. “A year ago he was being talked about as maybe the top pick in the draft but then he decided to go back,” said one scout. “He’s got the prototype size of an NFL quarterback. Strong arm, better athlete than you might think because he’s more of a pocket quarterback. I think he’s better than 4.8. He’s very competitive. He was a good decision-maker but when pressured he flustered at times. He’s got the traits to be a capable starter.” Finished with a 3-3 record in a disappointing 2025 campaign before suffering a broken ankle against Northwestern. “Physically, it’s all there,” another scout said. “This guy can make any throw. Really good kid. Teammates really like him. They respect him. But when the games are big he does not play well. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen anything like it. There’s just something missing. I don’t know if it’s performance anxiety or what the hell goes on.” Finished with a passer rating of 100.4. Also ran for 732 and 12 TDs. “Something was off, something was missin’ because he’s got all the NFL traits and measurables,” a third scout said. “I just was concerned about his accuracy. It’s at all levels and it’s timing with receivers. I thought his touch and mechanics were worse the bigger the game got and the higher the competition. I don’t think his receivers helped him and he wasn’t sitting behind a very good O-line. I went back and looked at tapes from last year (2024) and I saw a better guy. Now he’s injured. Who knows where he’s at mentally?” Four-star recruit from Medina, Ohio. Also played basketball and baseball. “Just no decisiveness,” a fourth scout said. “He just doesn’t pull the trigger. Great kid, too. The game looks too fast for him.” Hands were 9 7/8. “He had as much physical talent as anybody but he breaks his leg and there’s something missing in his game,” a fifth scout said. “Can somebody fill in that blank? I don’t know. With a gun to my head I’d have him as my third quarterback just because I think I could craft an offense to help him. I mean, that Mickey Mouse system they’ve been in, it’s embarrassing. It was goofy. Something’s missing. He’s got too good of an arm. He never won a big game. He was tied to James Franklin. They kind of went in together and went out together. They could never get over the hump.”

5. GARRETT NUSSMEIER, Louisiana State (6-1 ½, 203, no 40, 2-3): Suffered an abdominal injury during practice in early August and finally was shut down after nine starts. “His stuff last year (2024) was great,” one scout said. “I don’t know what happened this year.” After backing up Jayden Daniels and others from 2021-’23, he started 22 games in 2024-’25. “Tale of two guys,” a second scout said. “In 2024, he looked like a starter in the NFL. But ’25 was a very difficult year. He played without any confidence. Everything looked like a player who was overthinking instead of going out there to win every snap. He had a much improved week in Mobile (for the Senior Bowl).” Went 15-8 in 23 starts with a passer rating of 93.6. Also ran for five touchdowns. “He can make some NFL throws from the pocket,” said a third scout. “He’s got really good arm strength. It’s just he’s small and makes a lot of mistakes just moving out of the pocket. When he’s on the run he’s forced a lot of balls. In the pocket, he’s got a great feel for buying a little extra time. He can really zip the ball. Third round.” Smallest hands (9 1/8) of the top 10 quarterbacks. “Hard to evaluate because I think he was hurt much of the season,” said a fourth scout. “Evaluating him off this year, I thought he was a backup. Tough kid, adequate arm strength but has some downfield inconsistencies. Not a great athlete. Most efficient in a short, quick passing game. His ball tails off beyond 25 (yards). Helped himself at the Senior Bowl. There’s concern that pressure could affect him. I’d say he’s around 4.9.” Four-star recruit from Lake Charles, La. His father, Doug, played quarterback for the Saints from 1994-’98 and currently is the team’s offensive coordinator.

6. COLE PAYTON, North Dakota State (6-2 ½, 235, 4.61, 2-3): Started only as a senior during five-year stay in Fargo. “He played in multiple games throughout his career as like a running quarterback or lined up at running back like a gadget guy,” one scout said. “He’s lefthanded, which some people might not like as much. But the kid has size, he’s really athletic for his size and has excellent speed. He can turn like a 3- or 4-yard run into a 30-yard run. He has a little bit longer windup and a three-quarter release, but he does have elasticity in his arm to get it out quick. He’s got a really strong arm. His accuracy is unreal on deep balls and layering the ball. He has touch. The school has a history of producing draftable quarterbacks. You might let him sit for a year. Maybe use him in a Taysom Hill role as a rookie. This kid could be a really good starter by Year 2. I don’t think he gets out of the second or third round. He has too much ability to work with.” Never threw more than 27 passes in his first four seasons. Only attempted 224 for the rush-oriented Bison in 2025. Finished with a passer rating of 123.7. Also rushed 287 times for 1,918 (6.7) and 31 TDs. “He can make sideline throws, do fades, put it in the middle,” said a second scout. “When he runs he makes people miss. He can do short-yardage.” In addition to a fast 40, he went 40 in the vertical jump and 10-10 in the broad jump. Largest hands (10 ¼) of the top 15 quarterbacks. “Overall, he had a pretty good Senior Bowl,” said a third scout. “I think there’s something to him but it’s probably going to take a couple years. You better have a quarterback and let him develop his skills. I’d absolutely take Cole Payton over Cade Klubnik.” Earned a master’s degree in December 2025. “One-year starter at North Dakota State – no thank you,” said a fourth scout. “He’s got a slow left-handed windup. Got a really weak arm. Terrible against pressure. Kind of a one-read guy. Decent enough athlete when it’s a designed run, but doesn’t really escape pressure well. He’ll make it but I don’t think he’ll be a decent backup even.” From Omaha, Neb.

7. CARSON BECK, Miami (6-4 ½, 232, no 40, 3-4): Sat at Georgia from 2020-’22 before going 24-3 as the starter from 2023-’24. “Two years ago, he might have been a top-5 pick,” one scout said. “In (mid-2023) I said, ‘If he comes out he could be the first pick.’ Two years ago, he played pretty well (career-best rating of 115.0). Since then … in defense of him, it’s hard to lead at Georgia when the head coach (Kirby Smart) is screaming in a bullhorn all practice. It’s hard for a quarterback to kind of find his place when all that is going on. It was a good move for him to go to Miami. He’s older and bigger and stronger and wiser than most of the competition this past year but he didn’t really dominate. He had his moments. If Stetson Bennett’s on a team (Rams) as the third quarterback I think Carson Beck can be a 3, maybe even a 2. He’ll only be a starter through a twist of fate.” Took over for Cam Ward with the Hurricanes in 2025 and was the loser in the CFP Championship Game loss to Indiana. “He did what they needed him to do at Miami,” another scout said. “But when it came down to it they still took the ball out of his hand instead of letting him make a play.” His ratings were 98.1 in 2024 and 107.1 in 2025 for a career mark of 106.7. Also rushed for 288 and seven TDs. “They won without him at Georgia,” said a third scout. “I’ve got to say he had a tremendous year at Miami. They also had a dominating defense. They had everything to help him. He’ll make the crucial errors. He made crucial errors in the championship game. He’s not a mobile guy. I don’t see him as a solid starter.” Four-star recruit from Jacksonville, Fla. Was a professional prospect in baseball as a first baseman-pitcher. “He’s nothing,” a fourth scout said. “He’s just so erratic. He folds versus pressure. He’s got enough athletic ability but doesn’t really know when to run and create plays. He’s a backup. At best.”

8: JOE FAGNANO, Connecticut (6-3, 226, 4.83, 4-5): Spent four years at Maine, playing 27 games and posting a passer rating of 95.8. Moved to UConn in 2023 but a shoulder injury ended his first season after two games. Started in 2024-’25. “Had a phenomenal season this year,” one scout said. “He threw one interception (against 28 TDs). He’s got a nice arm. Pretty good athlete. He may start out as a No. 3 but he could end up being a good No. 2. He’s never going to be the guy you want to start over the long haul but he can be a reliable backup.” Became a Black Bear after turning down his other offer, which came from Bucknell. “Lacks big-time arm strength but compensates with his intelligence, accuracy and touch,” another scout said. “Competitive kid. Makes plays in critical situations. Decent athlete. Like his mechanics and footwork. He’s got really good short accuracy. Shows poise under pressure. I thought he’d be a solid backup.” Finished with a rating of 116.0 for the Huskies. His career mark was 110.1. Ran for 223 and four TDs at UConn and 535 plus five TDs at Maine. From Williamsport, Pa.

9. SAWYER ROBERTSON, Baylor (6-3 ½, 216, 4.67, 5): Redshirted in 2021 and played briefly in 2022 at Mississippi State before starting for the Bears for 2 ½ seasons. “He’s a lot like (Tyler) Shough from Louisville,” one scout said. “Nobody knew about him until he got in the all-star games and all of a sudden he’s a second-round pick in New Orleans. To me, that’s kind of what Sawyer is. A guy that wasn’t on the radar at the start of the year, then had a good year and did decent at the Senior Bowl. Just a name on the board at the start of the year before he started throwing for 400 yards and threw the ball accurately. He’s a pocket quarterback but is going to run when he has to. He could throw the seam route to the tight end.” Tested well athletically at the combine. Vertical jump was 37 ½. Finished with a 94.3 rating and ran for 316 and eight TDs. “Has good arm strength, velocity and range,” a second scout said. “Erratic with his footwork, setup and decision-making. Indecisiveness lulls in processing ands release times affect his overall accuracy. Got good enough short-area accuracy but spotty and erratic on the move. He has traits but needs extensive refinement.” Took over as the full-fledged starter in Game 3 of 2024. Four-star recruit from Lubbock, Texas. His cousin, Jarrett Stidham, is a quarterback for the Broncos.

10. CADE KLUBNIK, Clemson (6-2, 207, 4.69, 5-6): Went 26-14 as a starter. Best year was 2024 when he threw for 36 TDs and had a passer rating of 105.6. “He got overhyped,” said one scout. “He got exposed. He was at the East-West Game, not even at the Senior Bowl.” Career rating was 95.2, and he ran for 878 and 17 TDs. “He’s a good project,” said a second scout. “When I first did him I thought he was a late first-round pick. He has all the tools you’re looking for. He’s got an arm. He’s got mobility. He can run. He’s accurate, for the most part. Sometimes balls get away from him. Sometimes he misses guys. But a quick release. He can fire the ball in there. He’s tough. He’s got Derek Carr in him. The quick release, about the same size, athlete, boom – he can make every throw. He’s a guy that’s intriguing.” Ranked the No. 1 quarterback in the class of 2022. Played at Westlake in Austin, Texas, the school that produced Drew Brees and Nick Foles. ”I don’t know why he was talked about being a first-round draft choice,” a third scout said. “I didn’t like him two years ago.” Three-time All-ACC academic honoree and a semifinalist for the academic Heisman.

THE NEXT FIVE

Behren Morton, Texas Tech (6-2, 218, 4.89)

Said one scout: “He’s the pass-happy, sling-it-all-over-the-place kid. I’ll tell you what. That kid is tough. He will stand there and take a hit. I just thought his arm was OK. Pretty functional athlete, moves around pretty good. I didn’t feel he was in control of the game.”

Luke Altmyer, Illinois (6-1 ½, 211, 4.70)

Said one scout: “Not great, but not bad. He was very inconsistent all year. He reminded me of Nussmeier. Their years were similar. Very up and down, but they both threw the ball pretty well at the Senior Bowl. Looked a lot more composed.”

Jalon Daniels, Kansas (6-0 ½, 221, 4.64)

Said one scout: “Has some explosive play-making ability. He’s a four-year captain, first time ever in school history, which is pretty impressive. Has a strong arm when his feet are in sync with his release. Has a lack of height and some injury history as well. His tendency to run could impede his longevity, but he could be a solid backup.”

Haynes King, Georgia Tech (6-2 ½, 212, 4.52)

Said one scout: “Kid’s really tough and competitive. Hasn’t won a lot, takes a pretty good beating. His throwing motion and release improved as the season went along. Has good arm strength. Has mobility. Inaccurate. Durability is a concern but he has enough to be a No. 2.”

Jake Retzlaff, Brigham Young (6-0 ½, 209, no 40)

Said one scout: “Capable player. Athletic dual threat. Effective decision-making. Good arm strength. Streaky accuracy.”

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