McGinn: Inside the J.J. McCarthy Mystery
What do the Minnesota Vikings have in second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy? Our Bob McGinn talks to people around the NFL to find out.
This is the continuation of a 2023 series looking at active players and their current situation vis a vis what it was entering the NFL draft. The comments from personnel men were made in the months leading up to the draft for my NFL Draft Series, which dates to 1985. Scouting football prospects is an inexact science, especially when it comes to off-the-field considerations. It has been said that no two evaluators view a player exactly the same way.
Hall of Fame sports writer Bob McGinn joined Go Long in September 2021.
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By Bob McGinn
Of the nearly 1,700 players on NFL rosters this opening weekend none has a larger role and a more minuscule track record than the Minnesota Vikings’ J.J. McCarthy.
McCarthy stands unthreatened as the starting quarterback for a playoff-caliber team that won 14 games last season even though his NFL experience includes just 1 ½ training camps and 2 ½ quarters over two exhibition games and without a single snap in a regular-season game or practice.
Waylaid by knee cartilage damage as a rookie from early August on last year and playing catchup since, the McCarthy conundrum will begin to unfold Monday night when the trusting Vikings meet the inquisitive Bears at Soldier Field.
“The whole thing is just a mystery until he plays,” an executive in personnel said last week. “Everything (in Minnesota) is about the quarterback this year.”
McCarthy’s “tape” this summer consisted of 12 plays in an opening 58-yard drive for a field goal Aug. 9 against the Houston Texans in Minneapolis. He hit four of seven passes for 30 yards and scrambled once for eight. As much as McCarthy could have benefited from additional game exposure, the Vikings went bubble wrap after that.
“I don’t really know what to say about him,” said an NFC personnel man who eagerly watched the McCarthy snippet. “He threw (seven) passes in the preseason; none of them were particularly impressive. I do think he has movement ability and should be good on the boot action, but he’s a total wild card. I have no idea how he’s going to do in this offense.
“If I’m a Minnesota fan, I’m confident in the players around him, and especially the coach (Kevin O’Connell). But for anyone to say they know what he is or will be, they are just speculating.”
The first hit from the Bears’ defense likely will qualify as the first time McCarthy has been knocked down in 12 months. NFL coaches extol the virtues of joint practices these days but with quarterbacks wearing red jerseys removing them from contact and no crowd noise it makes evaluating the position based on that almost futile.
One early August morning on Sirius XM radio Bill Polian, the Hall of Fame general manager, and six-year NFL safety Solomon Wilcots chatted about McCarthy.
The fact that McCarthy operated mainly from under center during his three seasons at Michigan gave him a leg up on the shotgun-spread quarterbacks, according to the hosts. There was conversation about the fastballs McCarthy threw as a collegian and the need for improved touch on his passes. Some comparisons were made with a youthful Steve Young.
“I’m sure there will be some rocky moments at the start,” offered Polian.
How rocky? No one can say.
“He has to show he can put enough touch on his underneath throws to give the backs a chance,” said one scout. “And he has to show he can throw that deep crossing route, particularly to (Justin) Jefferson that they rely so much upon.
“If he can do that, then I think he’ll be fine.”
Last year, due in large part to the inspired quarterbacking of since-departed Sam Darnold, the Vikings owned the NFL’s sixth-ranked passing offense and the No. 12 attack overall. Had Darnold been re-signed, thereby delaying the coronation of the 22-year-old McCarthy, one personnel man estimated the Vikings would have been able to sign just two of their four big-ticket off-season free agents: defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave, center Ryan Kelly and guard Will Fries. Moreover, the trade for wide receiver Adam Thielen might not have fit the team’s salary cap.
That scout maintained that bringing back Darnold would have been the best course of action for Minnesota. He was quick to add, however, that “that could change based on Monday night’s game depending how McCarthy plays. It all ties into the same thing. You just don’t know.”
The last time McCarthy started a game that mattered was Jan. 8, 2024 when Michigan defeated Washington, 34-13, in the CFP championship game. In that game he attempted 18 passes, 4.1 fewer than his average that season, and completed 10 for 140 yards, no touchdowns and no interceptions.
If McCarthy wasn’t regarded as a game manager for the Wolverines, he was close to it. O’Connell, a pass-oriented playcaller, isn’t liable to opt for the conservative approach even in the unlikely event that he could given the Vikings’ rugged schedule.
“They’re obviously counting on their defense to play well but they can’t be in position where they just have to run out the clock,” said one executive in personnel. “The kid’s gonna have to make some throws no matter what.”
Although the Vikings have taken seven of the last eight games against the Bears chances are that the 129th engagement (Vikings lead, 68-58-2) will be a back-and-forth affair.
“It’s gonna be close, it’s gonna be physical,” said the scout. “The running game will probably start out OK and then fade out, and that’s when he’s gonna have to make some throws. And if Caleb Williams is playing OK and figures out that defense, then he’s really gonna have to make some plays.”
BASICS
Height: 6-2 ½. Weight: 215 (was 219 at 2024 combine). Age: 22. From: La Grange Park, Ill. 40-yard dash: None. Vertical jump: None. Broad jump: None. Wonderlic test: Didn’t take. Arms: 31 5/8. Hands: 9 (Tied for smallest among the 13 quarterbacks at the combine). 20-yard shuttle: 4.23. 3-cone: 6.82 (the fastest time for a combine quarterback since North Dakota State’s Easton Stick clocked 6.65 in 2019).