Mailbag, Part I: Beane's drafts, Tom Clements Effect, the 1950 Browns, Mahomes, 'Spags' & Caleb Williams
A ton of phenomenal questions. Let's get to them all, starting with Part I.
We asked for your questions and you delivered. Let’s get right to it.
I’ll break this edition of the Mailbag into three parts.
First up, we discuss…
Football history. Why we should never ignore the pre-Super Bowl era.
What will the rest of the NFL copy from Super Bowl LVIII?
Was Damar Hamlin snubbed for Comeback Player of the Year?
Which rule change would help the NFL without changing the sport?
The Tom Clements Effect, Favre to Rodgers to Love.
Our far-too-soon 2024 Super Bowl prediction.
How can Buffalo keep pace with Kansas City? This is Brandon Beane’s most important draft since he took Josh Allen.
Caleb Williams vs. Justin Fields.
Hi Tyler,
What a great season that just ended. Thank you for all of your hard work and great stories throughout this season.
My question is how does the NFL and current NFL writers look at the NFL teams before the Super Bowl era. Kansas City has a chance to win 3 championships in a row. Green Bay has done it twice: 1929-1931 and then in the 1960’s, but it’s not even mentioned. I know the game was not very popular during that time. In fact, the first 2 Super Bowls were not even called Super Bowls. Do most NFL people think the NFL started during the Super Bowl era and anything before the Super Bowl era should not be counted as important anymore?
Thanks again for all you do for this awesome platform.
Steve
Perfect place to start. Thank you for launching us with a great question, Steve.
The first impulse here is to again recommend Michael MacCambridge’s book to all: “America’s Game: The Epic Story of How Pro Football Captured a Nation.” If anything should be considered required reading to NFL fans, it’s this. Nobody articulates the origins of the NFL better than MacCambridge — it’s truly amazing how the ambition of a select few created something that became so central to American life. Admittedly, I’ve fallen into the trap you describe and was completely ignorant to pre-Super Bowl Era football for too long. Following the Packers naturally helped me to bone up on the 60s, but you’re dead-on. Football pre-1964 deserves a lot more space in our collective consciousness. The more time passes, the more this grainy footage is forgotten.
Sports Illustrated is in the process of being destroyed by corporate ghouls. But first, the once-great magazine brought together an excellent cast to vote on the most “influential” teams in NFL history. It’s worth reading and diving into research rabbit holes.
Amongst the Top 10 you’ll find the 1961 Packers (No. 10), 1946 Los Angeles Rams (No. 8), 1950 Cleveland Browns (No. 4) and 1958 Baltimore Colts (No. 2). Many readers may remember their fathers and grandfathers citing “The Greatest Game Ever Played” — the first-ever sudden death playoff game. Those Johnny Unitas-led Colts slammed the accelerator on this sport’s popularity to eventually catch and surpass Major League Baseball. But the ’50 Browns are equally fascinating and arguably more influential. That team joined the NFL after winning four AAFC (All-America Football Conference) titles. Most expected a bloodbath. Instead, Paul Brown’s team smashed the defending two-time champion Eagles, 35-10. Otto Graham threw for 346 yards and three touchdowns. Afterward, Eagles coach Greasy Neale complained that the Browns passed the ball too much. Neale groused that Brown would “make a better basketball coach because all he does is put the ball in the air.”
Nothing beats a little 1950s trash talk. 10-4, Greasy.
When the Browns and Eagles met again later in the season, Cleveland did not attempt a single pass and won, 13-7. Said Paul Brown after this W: “Neale was shooting off his bazooka. His comments were bad for football. But he did get our men steamed up.”
Stories like these should be shared more often because those Browns were legendary for their time. OK, players might’ve been bakers and shoemakers in the offseason when Otto Graham was winning championships, but who cares? These were the players and the teams that laid the foundation for the sport and we should pay more respect than we do.
A team winning three straight championships today is a greater feat simply because there’s 32 teams instead of 13 teams, but we shouldn’t shove the history of the game into a dusty attic.
Tyler,
I hope you get a chance to recharge before the draft.
In a copycat league, what do you think will be a trend next year as a result of the Chiefs winning again?
What surprised you the most about the Super Bowl in Vegas? It seems like there were not many issues with players misbehaving. In our social media age, it seems like nothing surprising or harmful to The Shield occurred.
Do you see the NFL having Las Vegas in the rotation for hosting more often based on how everything went last week?
Do you see the Pro Bowl evolving again? It seems like the NFL has figured out the draft, and maybe even some aspects of the preseason (reducing one game), but still seems completely lost on how to make the Pro Bowl interesting. They seem unafraid to experiment but nobody cares about the event itself.
With FIFA mandating grass for its players, do you see the NFL biting the bullet and moving away from its use of artificial turf? Players seem to generally hate it.
What do you make of Flacco winning MVP over Hamlin?
Every year the Competition Committee discusses rules — do you have a sense of what potential rules changes might be contemplated?
Paul
Another strong round of questions here, Paul. Let’s weigh in on them all.
Copycat league: Cloning Patrick Mahomes is ideal, but unlikely for the rest of the NFL. We devoted plenty of time trying to get to the origins of Mahomes’ ability to rise up in clutch moments, but for good reason. It’s historic.
This stat from fellow Substacker Neil Paine boggles the brain and helps put Mahomes’ current greatness into proper perspective.
Paine writes:
“Since 2001, there have been 125 drives in the NFL postseason where it was at least the fourth quarter, there was under a minute left to play, and the team on offense trailed by seven points or fewer at the start. These are your standard clutch moments for a football team, the do-or-die drives that win and lose critical games.
“Out of those 125 drives, only 40 percent of them saw the team on offense pull off the magic trick and get the points they needed. Some quarterbacks are pretty good at it, such as Tom Brady, who went 5-for-11 (46%), or Drew Brees, who went 3-for-6 (50%). Only Patrick Mahomes, though, 7-for-7, or perfect, in those dire situations.”
Seven for seven. Which… further illustrates the insanity of Kyle Shanahan’s decision to accept the ball first in overtime and give Mahomes that extra down. The 49ers coach set the bear trap himself and stepped right in. No wonder the Chiefs were so stunned on the mic’d up footage of Super Bowl LVIII. “They want it!” Mahomes says repeatedly. “We want them to have the ball,” tight end Travis Kelce said. “They want it, they can have it.” So, there’s one trend. Nobody in their right mind will take the ball first in any postseason overtime game that features a quarterback this side of Kim McQuilken and Billy Joe Hobert.
And here’s a defensive trend I think could stick in these big games.
More coaches will follow Steve Spagnuolo’s lead and attack prolific offenses with ferocity. More will actively choose to take the fight to the offense. Too often, defenses pucker up and sit back in zones. The philosophy isn’t terrible: Bait a team into nickel ‘n diming their way down the field 12 to 15 plays at a time along an eight-minute drive and then — when you’re inside the red zone — hope you can force a field goal. But, eh. This is a swell way to win division titles. Not necessarily Super Bowls in today’s game vs. today’s offenses. Spagnuolo knows this and proved in Vegas that it pays to live dangerously. Playing man coverage helps eliminate the gimmies underneath. Precise quarterbacks like Brock Purdy are forced to think a second longer and make more tight-window throws. Spagnuolo was unafraid to play man coverage against Shanahan’s dizzying menu of shift and motions — his defensive backs and linebackers were smart enough and talented enough to stick with the 49ers’ skill-position weapons.
So, then? You can blitz.
Here are a few more jarring stats, these from friend of the program Bob Sturm at SturmStack.
KC played Cover 0 on 21.4 percent of the snaps in the Super Bowl. (The season average was 6.2 percent vs SF.)
KC played Cover 1 on 40.5 percent of the snaps. (The season average was 23.8.).
KC played man coverage 64.3 percent of the time. (The season average was less than half of that, at 30.4.)
The only other team that displayed similar testicular fortitude was the Cleveland Browns in Week 6 and — surprise, surprise — the Browns handed Shanahan his first loss of the season with their own quarterback, P.J. Walker, posting a QB rating of 45.2 and a QBR of 19.9. It didn’t matter. Jim Schwartz’s unit made Purdy finally look like the last player taken in the draft.
An important distinction, too. Spagnuolo doesn’t haphazardly blitz to blitz. Everything is timed up perfectly and, often, disguised. Opposing quarterbacks can’t get a full read on the pressure until it’s too late. It helps to have an elite defensive tackle like Chris Jones dismantling 300-pound linemen. But one reason Jones even sees a 1-on-1 block in such critical moments is that the 49ers are struggling to account for the moving pieces on the defensive side of the ball. All season, the 49ers dictated the terms with all of their pre-snap confusion. By playing so much man and by sending so much pressure, the Chiefs dictated the rules of engagement in Super Bowl LVIII.
This is not a mode that more passive defenses can seamlessly switch over to for one game. It’ll take a full commitment, beginning in the offseason. There’s an art to blitzing and winning this way because it’s risky: Trent McDuffie needs to disrupt a play as a free runner. Jones needs to block Purdy’s vision. More defensive coaches set in their ways should strongly consider trashing their handbook for the one Spags displayed on the Super Bowl stage.
Vegas surprises: Keen observation on player behavior. Brett Favre mentioned on our Super Bowl pod that guys were sure to enjoy Bourbon Street ahead of the Packers-Patriots game. Imagine that’s par for the course for a lot of teams. You’d think someone on either Kansas City or San Francisco would’ve strayed from the nest after curfew in Sin City — even with both teams facing off in a Super Bowl before. I’m still shocked that sports’ greatest spectacle was held in our nation’s gambling capital. Possibly an incident was covered up and we simply didn’t hear about it. But as you mentioned we were bound to see a player doing something with social media blurring public and private life. The absence of controversy in Vegas — VEGAS! — absolutely warrants Surprise of the Week.
Pro Bowl: We’ll never see an actual football game played again. The league has tried positioning the Pro Bowl as a trial balloon for flag football in the event the NFL has no choice but to go full flag one day. Hopefully the very-obvious general apathy toward flag strongly hints to owners that the public still craves the sport’s inherent physicality. The gimmicky “Pro Bowl Games” in 2023 was greeted with a 7.5 percent drop in viewership — good on the people for reading through the NFL’s nonsense. Viewership dropped another 8 percent in in 2024 to 5.79 million across all ABC/ESPN platforms. My best guess is that the NFL creates something that’s extremely gambling-friendly in the future. No clue what that’d entail, but if they can’t give fans a good product they’ll at least try to make the fan feel intimately involved. All in all, the Pro Bowl is our annual reminder that Americans want football to remain a contact sport. The NBA has an even worse problem on its hands. The total lack of defense seen in Adam Silver’s atrocity of an all-star game last weekend is a real problem in the actual games.
Playing surfaces: Roger Goodell again stood by artificial playing surfaces at his Super Bowl press conference, but at least he sounded open to listening and making changes to the status quo. Getting players to practice on the type of surface they’ll encounter in the game that week makes sense.
Here’s what he said:
“This has been a major focus with the Players Association, and we have jointly worked with experts to try to study this question. It’s not always just grass or synthetic. We think hybrid is something to really explore. That’s actually what they use in international soccer, is a hybrid type of format. Additionally, I think we’ve got to look at different circumstances, right? You play in a dome for four and half months, that’s pretty hard to grow grass. You can sometimes take it in and out. You can find a way of trying to replace that. But we want to try to get the best possible field surfaces, and that is something that varies from market to market, climate to climate. One of the things that we think is very important and the studies that we’re doing, is consistency. And when I say consistency, it’s not just on the entire playing surface, but it’s consistency of what players are playing on during the week leading up to the game. What they’re practicing on and what they play on. That consistency is really important, according to our engineers and our experts. So we’re looking at that with the Players Association and hope we can find better solutions and continue that focus.”
Comeback Player of the Year: This award created a stir. After poking fun at his own inclusion on the ballot — this was great with CBS’ Zach Gelb — Joe Flacco was the winner. The vote was close. To recap, Damar Hamlin garnered more first-place votes than Flacco but lost out on the 5-3-1 scoring:
Joe Flacco, Cleveland: 13-26-8 = 151
Damar Hamlin, Buffalo: 21-7-14 = 140
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay: 10-10-13 = 93
Enough voters had a hard time giving the hardware to a special teams player who made no impact on the field. Hamlin finished the 2023 season with two tackles. We’re all supposed to have a very strong opinion on this matter, but I really don’t. Hamlin’s heart stopped on a football field, a moment none of us will ever forget. The fact that he had any desire, period, to return to the field is worthy of the honor. What a horrifying night that was in Cincinnati. Conversely, I understand why enough voters wanted to see performance on the field. Mayfield, a QB toggling from Cleveland to Carolina to L.A. to Tampa Bay, got the nod in our Go Long honors. Hamlin’s comeback has been celebrated by all. He also received the PFWA’s George Halas Award in 2023, an honor given to an NFL player, coach or staff member who overcame the most adversity to succeed. That seems fitting, if devoid of red-carpet pomp and circumstance.
New rules: The NFL is considering adopting the XFL’s kickoff model, the Washington Post reported two weeks ago. You may remember this set-up. Players are lined up only five yards apart to prevent those on the kickoff team from reaching top-end speed. Does this lead to substantial improvements in player safety? And at what cost? I’m not sure. The league’s executive VP of communications, public affairs and policy, Jeff Miller, told the Post that the NFL’s 2023 rule of allowing a fair catch on the kickoff is “neither safer nor more dangerous.” Miller added that they’re analyzing the XFL rule. I don’t think it’s overly purist of us to dislike the erosion of the kickoff. This is such an exciting play that should be preserved. After all, Devin Hester is heading to Canton.
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler also reported that there is “momentum behind” changing the controversial touchback rule. As it stands, when a player fumbles the ball out of the end zone, the other team receives the ball at the 20-yard line. Maybe teams agree to soften this crime in the name of points, points, points. But the older I get, the more I absolutely love this touchback rule. If you’re going to dive and stick the football over the goal-line, you better know it comes with consequences. Turnovers should be punished.
Acrobatically going airborne to score a touchdown should be a difficult feat.
Tee Higgins’ catch-and-stretch touchdown against the Vikings is that much more impressive.
One change that’d be good for the game? Adopting the XFL’s fourth and 15 “onside kick” play. It’s virtually impossible to recover an onside kick today. Give teams the option of attempting a fourth and 15 on their 25-yard line. This would keep the drama pumping late in games without structurally changing the sport. Nowadays, those late touchdowns to cut a deficit from 10 to three mean nothing beyond fantasy football. This proposal was discussed and shot down in 2020. Since then, onside kicks have only become more irrelevant.
Hi Tyler,
At the time Tom Clements was rehired all the buzz was AR wanted it and the Packers were accommodating him. Seems to me it’s likely the front office did it more for the development of JL than for AR and possibly that Tom put off retirement and accepted the offer more for a final chance to work with a promising rookie than to get an aging Hall of Famer back on his game (which it seems he did as well).
Tyler
Not bad, huh? The Packers brought Tom Clements out of retirement with Aaron Rodgers on the mind — GM Brian Gutekunst confirmed as much then — so nobody knew if the longtime quarterbacks coach would have any interest in sticking around once Rodgers was finally traded to the New York Jets. Their relationship was special. Back when we’d sit down for an extended 1 on 1 each spring, Rodgers told me that Clements was “the biggest” factor in his consistency:
“Very consistent personality. Incredible teacher of the game,” Rodgers said in that 2012 interview. “And the perfect dynamic in our relationship where there's a tight friendship and I really look up to him as a person and consider him a dear friend. However, there's a line between player and coach that exists on the field where I look at him as a father figure and, to me, I never want to disappoint my father. So when I take the field, I want to make him proud with the way he has prepared me. The last thing I want to do is let him down.”
Rodgers loved Clements’ attention to detail, how they’d drill down specific aspects of his footwork, his eye movement, his release. The coach did not want him to make decisions before the snap.
As a result, Rodgers became perhaps the most fundamentally sound passer in the sport.
The siren call of the sport is simply too much for Clements. He thought he was done coaching after the 2016 season. Then again after a two-year stint on the Arizona Cardinals’ staff.
So maybe we shouldn’t be too surprised that Clements chose to stick around to coach Love after Rodgers was traded. Messy as the exit was this time last year, at least the Packers have Rodgers to thank for this goodbye present. Clements unquestionably has been a key driver in Love’s success, a point-blank communicator. Mike McCarthy told ESPN that Clements is one of the “most intelligent” coaches he’s ever worked with. What a resume, too. Clements arrived in Green Bay fresh off of Brett Favre’s 29-interception season in 2005. Two years later, Favre was second in the MVP voting and led the Packers to the NFC Championship. Raised on Clements’ principles, Rodgers won four MVPs. Now, Love’s future is bright.
Clements turns 71 years old in June. We’ll see how long he wants to stick around. The team also values assistant quarterbacks coach Connor Lewis. He’s been on staff for Love’s rise, too.
Hi Ty,
I think I cracked the code for both the Chiefs and Buffalo Bills as well. As great as Patrick Mahomes is and as much respect as he deserves and gets, the Chiefs organization does something that keeps those teams at the top of the league year after year: The Chiefs do not pay players who let them down in big moments! Andy Reid suffered like the Buffalo Bills early in his Chiefs’ career with playoff loss after playoff loss becoming more and more heart-wrenching. Don’t forget the huge lead they had over the Colts, only to lose in the second half. Then the Chiefs started purging the roster of high-priced players who weren’t rising to the occasion in the playoffs. Names like Alex Smith, Eric Fisher, Frank Clark, Justin Houston, etc. were replaced with young promising players in the draft.
The Buffalo Bills need to learn this hard lesson. For years I have watched Dawson Knox, Ed Oliver, Matt Milano, TreDavious White, etc. come up lame or disappear during big games versus All-Pro quarterbacks. The Buffalo Bills highest-priced players only deliver versus backup or mediocre quarterbacks in the playoffs. We have a high-priced offensive tackle who gives himself a clever nickname only to get picked up and thrown in the Josh Allen’s lap while he’s trying to deliver a perfect touchdown pass to a wide-open receiver at the end of a home divisional game vs. Kansas City. It’s time for the Bills’ front office to wake up and give Josh Allen the playmakers he needs to be able to do what Patrick Mahomes does.
This is the code the Bills need to crack to get past Kansas City! Let me know what you think. I know this is a very long essay but if I’m wrong, I’m willing to admit it. Thank you for your time and keep up the great work. I’m a huge fan!
Jason
At the mic, Brandon Beane is a smooth operator. But if there’s one comment the Buffalo Bills general manager would take back, it’s what he said after his team’s 2022 blowout playoff loss to the Cincinnati Bengals:
“They had some lean years, without getting too much into their build,” Beane said. “And I don’t want to suck bad enough to have to get Ja’Marr Chase. He’s a heck of a talent. I’d love to have him. But you’ve got to go through some lean years to do that. They were able to get Burrow one and I don’t remember where Chase was drafted. It was pretty high. And those guys were on their rookie deals. We’re paying Stefon Diggs a pretty hefty number. We’re paying Josh Allen a pretty hefty number. So there is the constraints of the cap.”
He’s not wrong. Elite talents are typically found in the first five picks.
His grievance, however, falls flat.
Especially in comparison to the other AFC team his Bills cannot overcome: the Kansas City Chiefs. Hence, your “code.” Simply draft better talent — Round 1 through Round 7 — and any team will more confidently wiggle out of vet contracts and get to the Super Bowl.
The composition of the Chiefs defense is the perfect case study. GM Brett Veach, head coach Andy Reid and Spagnuolo knew they’d need to turn over the roster. They embraced a youth movement into the 2022 season and all three undoubtedly expected growing pains. Especially without Tyreek Hill on the other side of the ball stressing teams, too. But then a funny thing happened. These young players vaulted into key roles performed well, especially in the postseason. Cornerback Trent McDuffie (No. 21 overall), defensive end George Karlaftis III (No. 30), safety Bryan Cook (No. 62), linebacker Leo Chenal (No. 103) and cornerback Jaylen Watson (No. 243) all gave the Chiefs valuable snaps. The prior two drafts, KC also drafted linebackers Nick Bolton (No. 58), Willie Gay (No. 63) and perhaps the best shutdown cornerback in the NFL: L’Jarius Sneed (No. 138).
By 2023, the Chiefs’ defense was an elite unit.
Meanwhile, on offense, all the Chiefs did was draft a pair of core playmakers in SMU wide receiver Rashee Rice (No. 55 in 2023) and running back Isiah Pacheco (No. 251 in 2022). The result was two more Super Bowl wins.
That’s how a team contends after paying its star quarterback: Hit the bull’s eye on draft day. Star power isn’t required. The Chiefs offense was more methodical than explosive through their last playoff run, but that was possible because their defense was shutting teams down. Because they leapt ahead of Beane to take McDuffie and the Bills selected Florida’s Kaiir Elam. Beane’s drafts have not been abject failures. Personal opinion? This roster has been talented enough to win Super Bowls — plural. If the Bills hope to keep pace with the Chiefs, the Bengals, the next team to contend with a QB on that coveted rookie deal (Houston? Indy?), they’ll need their own draft haul this spring.
A change in philosophy would be nice. The Bills have drafted all of one wide receiver in the first four rounds since selecting Josh Allen in 2018. An organizational failure considering how NFL-ready collegiate receivers are today and considering they’re under cost-controlled contracts.
Better late than never. On Instagram, free agent Gabe Davis essentially said goodbye to the Bills on Tuesday. On his Super Bowl Media Blitz, Stefon Diggs said he wasn’t sure what the future held. This roster is bound to change in a major way. Without money to spend, the Bills need to nail the draft.
How likely is it that my birthright Packers will meet the Bills in the next SB?
Mike
Here’s my far-, far-, far-too-soon prognostication: Bengals vs. Packers in New Orleans.
Good day,
Aside from the many questions I have about my Bills in 2024, allow me to ask for your perspectives on the incoming draft class of QBs. Looking at the top three prospects, who do you think has the best potential to make a “Stroud-like” impact in 2024 and with which team(s) would they need to land to have such success?
Thanks and keep up the fine work.
Kevin
Very much looking forward to the NFL Combine in Indianapolis next week. I’ll be in town to chat with coaches, scouts and get an early read on the draft prospects. (Also: All can expect Bob McGinn’s 40th annual draft series to grace our pages again.) As a casual college football observer during the fall, USC’s Caleb Williams was a cut above. How he mentally handles the Chicago market will be a justified talking point all spring. Tape only explains so much. The Bears, perennial butchers of the position, must know how Williams will handle a stadium of deafening boos. A very large portion of the fan base would prefer Justin Fields right now. Williams will walk in with instant expectations and pressure.
Goodness, he’s fun to watch as a passer and runner. There’s a feeling that Williams will stress the field vertically any given play. While throwing with accuracy (68.5 completion percentage in 2023). While limiting mistakes (10 interceptions on 888 attempts at USC). You’ve got to take this chance if you’re the Bears. Fields is a fine quarterback. Maybe he even has some success with another team. But after 38 starts, the Bears have seen enough by now. He doesn’t throw with consistent rhythm, anticipation or accuracy. A shame the Bears cannot simply combine Fields’ clear physical/mental toughness with Williams’ raw talents.
OK, time to get to more questions.
Part II will post on Wednesday.
Tyler, this mailbag segment was fantastic. The Readers bring out the best in you.
Really liked this mailbag segment