For the fourth time in five years, Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes ended Buffalo's season. A new team followed the same old script. Josh Allen's prime continues to be wasted. What now?
I don’t think you emphasized enough the lackluster offensive game plan. A design QB run to start the game came across as scared and already defeated. Being stuffed 3 out of 5 times running the exact same QB sneak? Could they not have faked the sneak and done something creative? OC is not getting nearly enough grief for the pitiful offensive performance.
It was really sad to see Josh so defeated after the game summing it up as “you can’t just knock at the door, you have to kick it down and we haven’t done that”. If this was a business, and the goal was to win a SB, the CEO would conclude that they may not have isolated the point of failure, but they’ve definitely reached the point where something has to change. This organization has a terrific culture and is continuously successful in the regular season. But there’s a fundamental problem in the playoffs that needs to be kicked down.
Award-winning trophy for Tyler Dunne, the new Peter King…. and best candidate for the master class professorial appointment for all budding NFL writers to learn from him… so please feel free to share and tell about this website and maybe give a gift to your friends so they can enjoy TYLER … And hopefully BOB McGinn stays aboard with the podcast and his occasional column 🙋🏻♂️🎶🎶🎶🎶🎶
In spite of everything you listed above...the 3 and out to start the game (where Josh almost threw 2 INTs on his first two passes)...where Josh looked overwhelmed by the situation...Chiefs first drive averaging 9 ypp and an easy TD...the gift fumble recovery...the quickest three and out ever down 14-10...the terrible Bishop almost INT to a catch (where the ball hits the ground)...to the sick throw to Hollins...to the stuff on the 2 point conversion...(Chiefs had given up 32 of 32 sneaks for 1st downs or TDs to that point this year)....to punt...Buffalo FINALLY committing to our biggest advantage, Cook and this dominating O-Line running the ball v. the weaker KC front 7...TD...punt...to 3rd and 3 by DK86 that looked to have the FD, but was spotted a full yard (!!!!) short, to the decisive no FD call... (then the folded tent D)... followed by Spags not blitzing (!!!!) on 4th and gl at the 4 when Josh hits the TD pass...to the FG drive...the Bills had 7 turnover worthy throws and 4 fumbles (+1 by KC) and we recovered them all. There was a lack of sharpness to this entire effort, of course. Was it playing on the road? Lack of a bye week? Joe Buscaglia thinks Joe Brady's gameplans were discovered ("His played his entire list of greatest hits and the Chiefs knew all the words") and the lack of creativity was the biggest culprit. Btwn that and another defensive collapse against PM15, I see a list of viable suspects.
Despite all of that, all the flaws...all the complaints, all the injuries, all the poor planning, the Chiefs SEEMING domination (FDs: Bills 22, KC 28; total yards Bills 384, Chiefs 377)...the Bills held the ball at their own 42 yd line with all 3 TOs, down 3 with 2:30 left in the game. Legacy time for Josh Allen. I mean, this is the drive the great ones ask for. You get it done here, you cement your legacy. Play before, Josh scrambles for 13 yards to get that FD the moment he sees man to man coverage. The first two plays of the final set of downs actually seal our fate; the throw away by Allen on FD. The tipped ball on 2nd down. The trap is laid, the bait is set. They know it's Josh's time, we comply. Third down: blitz - find the .gif if you can - Cooper is a shoe string tackle from a TD on an all out blitz. It's that close. But 4th and 5 is better than 4th and 10. They already all out blitzed the play prior! It was actually handled well on third down. You can see why O'Cyrus thought they would LIKELY back out of it again. Who all out blitzes two plays in a row!!!! The margins are so thin. Congrats to Spags, who dared, and as we know, fortune tends to favoUr such boldness in the biggest moments.
Despite the lack of talent at WR, the injuries, everything else you wrote about. All of the above would be forgiven...lauded even...if this final drive ends in a TD. (Internet probably breaks if this game goes to OT, which for the Bills should've been the "least best" outcome if they ran the ball on the last drive with James Cook, who was their best player on the field in this game.) Alas, the seeds were sown with our best weapon in this game on the bench for the final drive and the Chiefs denial of our success on early downs of the last series. We had every incentive to run the ball and work the clock down to zeroes before end zone daring. There's always next time (we hope).
One thing I haven't seen noted in all the post-game discourse is that McDermott is now 0-5 on the road in the playoffs as Bills head coach (Allen 0-4).
Any serious look at playoff deficiencies begins and ends with McD's defenses being adequate to very good in the regular season but coming up massively short v. Andy Reid. Joe Marino's podcast (and all-22 film review) had some possible explanations for that: 1/ the Chiefs had 4 weeks to come up for wrinkles for the their AFC opponents 2/ the Bills played man 41% of the time v/ the Chiefs; that number is insane if you think about our average is man <20% of the time AND it's with Benford available (he was not for the last 82% of our snaps). Further: PM15 was 12/13 for 160 v. Man and 6/12 for 60 v. Zone. 3/ Damar Hamlin was exposed as the mediocre talent he's always been, likely made worse by Taylor Rapp's absence and 4/ The Chiefs line and play calling set up Mahomes runs better than in week 11. (He had special praise for Dorian Williams tho - one play was the stuff on 3rd and 1; the other was he raced 45 yds down the field to tackle the punt returner that would've scored a TD.)
I feel like we over performed all season with a lot of deficiencies. Our D was nowhere near as talented as previous years. As you said, we don’t have that elite WR that can step up. No disrespect to Shakir. Coleman was billed as the guy that can catch EVERYTHING and he had more than his fair share of drops this season. Josh, James and Shakir were the offense this year. I was already looking forward to next year before this season began but I was so pleasantly surprised week after week with how we played and how the season turned out that as disappointed as I am, I’m really proud of this team and the way they battled all year. I thank them for another exciting year of Bills football. Sure we aren’t beating the Chiefs but nobody is.
Not primarily a Bills fan (Packer fan following BUF more & more in part because of this great site) so won't pretend to feel all of their particular pain. From here it's hard to be as disappointed in this one as some of the past Bills playoff losses. I agree with George's comment, to me if anything this year's team overachieved.
Defensively, Buffalo's talent screams mid-pack NFL D. Milano is a stud, but other than that I don't see any blue chips. Kansas City's defense is definitely more talented than the Bills (so is Baltimore's btw). Obviously there were some ugly drives by the D yesterday, but Mahomes is still Mahomes. Ugly as it's been sometimes this year, he always comes through when it matters. He was still a huge advantage over a largely no-name defense.
The Bills offense was largely excellent all year, but that's also why if anything think they left more on the table yesterday. The D had some no-show drives, but the offense also had several, and that's not counting the two missed 4th downs. Some of the play-calling was definitely questionable. (Cook should've seen the ball more early) And Allen is outstanding, but in these games until the defense is more talented, he needs to be a little bit better.
I don't see reason to blow everything up. Buffalo is trying to get by what is proving to be one of the NFL's greatest dynasties. It's like pro tennis; you keep trying, but maybe you're just in the wrong place at the wrong time when trying to beat Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic. This year they were ultra-close to doing it. But if going to blame the coach, then the GM should be blamed just as much. He's missed on too many high picks, Elam in particular was an absolute liability yesterday that the Chiefs exploited to the max.
So then is canning the coach & GM really worth it with a team this close? I'd say keep adding talent on D, and if the GM can't do it maybe there's the A-1 problem. The short yardage offense also needs to get better and more imaginative; if anything, maybe a change is needed there, or maybe that area is where the QB can tweak his game.
There’s an unmistakable feeling of acceptance after this particular playoff loss to Kansas City. The Bills as we know them were just arriving when they first played the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game; the following year was an abject shock—I’d like to call it a fluke, but that’s not giving the Chiefs enough credit. The 2023 season-ending loss, despite it coming in Orchard Park, was endured by a team that was at one point 6-6.
But another 13-win Buffalo team couldn’t do it in Arrowhead, and that breakthrough victory feels further away than ever.
(This is why, from a fans’ perspective, it may be wise to enjoy the regular season for what it is.)
Which coach is out there who can take us from playing checkers to chess? Is there a potential Steve Kerr or Phil Jackson out there (who would raise our ceiling but may lower our floor)? Unlikely but proven winners: McVay, Bellichek, or someone in college (Smart, Freeman, Leiopold)
Well put, Tyler. Our 1st round picks have been average at best. The jury is still out on Coleman. He looked promising until his injury. This will be a huge offseason.
An interesting read, Tyler. Couldn’t wait to finish one sentence so I could get to the next. The compilation of defensive performances against the Chiefs in the playoffs is McGinn-like. It reinforced you’re already strong argument.
It appears that the Buffalo Bills of the 2220s are the ghosts of the Houston Oilers, who were always trying to kick down the door guarded by the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 1970s sped on. Close, but that’s all it was for the Oilers, and is for the Bills.
Owners and management are going to have to gulp hard and make changes in the coaching direction of the team. The clock is ticking on the remarkable Josh Allen’s career. Buffalo may never have a quarterback like him again.
- I'm not saying it's ever supposed to be easy against a team like the Chiefs, but the Bills made everything hard on themselves—even when they succeeded. Of their four touchdowns, two came on fourth down (one of which required an Olympic gymnast-level balancing act to pull off) and another was a bomb to a receiver with 0.5 yards of separation from an elite DB. They had just so few "easy" gains, which is of course in sharp contrast with Kansas City.
- The Bills have held McDermott, Beane and Allen in the highest regard—rightfully so, I contend. But all the franchises' north stars shared some significant blame in this loss. McDermott for the defense, which as Ty painstakingly notes couldn't deliver in a big game again; Beane for the Xavier Worthy move, which came back to bite the Bills pretty much exactly when we many fans though it might; and Allen for the final drive. He deserves credit for getting the heave off, under massive pressure, that Kincaid probably should have caught—but that entire series of downs is a difficult rewatch. As has been said many times, anyone would have taken the spot the Bills were in with 3:33 to play, down just 3 and holding three timeouts. In a results-based business, it's hard to see Allen come up short again.
P.S. That all being said, Allen put the Bills in a position to convert that must-convert fourth down...just as he did on the infamous sneak/dubious ruling that changed the game. Which sets everything written above and in this story in motion. At some level, I feel as if Allen could not possibly do more, but also could do more, at the same time.
I just read this - validating my in-game thoughts- why in the hell would you keep putting your most valuable asset and best player in harms way unnecessarily? Goes for all QBs:
From Josh Allen Monday: “It was just right at the goal line. The two-point play before halftime, got crunched up a little bit,” Allen said. "I was able to finish the game with just some swelling and stuff today”.
Quick QB sneaks are one thing. Telegraphed sneaks or tush push- use your Tight End. (Someone does this but can’t think of who at the moment.)
I don’t think you emphasized enough the lackluster offensive game plan. A design QB run to start the game came across as scared and already defeated. Being stuffed 3 out of 5 times running the exact same QB sneak? Could they not have faked the sneak and done something creative? OC is not getting nearly enough grief for the pitiful offensive performance.
Whilst there's no disgrace in being outwitted by Stevie Spags per se, some of that play calling looked like the work of someone who was scared.
The entire offensive game plan from go was scared, nervous and pre-defeated.
It was really sad to see Josh so defeated after the game summing it up as “you can’t just knock at the door, you have to kick it down and we haven’t done that”. If this was a business, and the goal was to win a SB, the CEO would conclude that they may not have isolated the point of failure, but they’ve definitely reached the point where something has to change. This organization has a terrific culture and is continuously successful in the regular season. But there’s a fundamental problem in the playoffs that needs to be kicked down.
Award-winning trophy for Tyler Dunne, the new Peter King…. and best candidate for the master class professorial appointment for all budding NFL writers to learn from him… so please feel free to share and tell about this website and maybe give a gift to your friends so they can enjoy TYLER … And hopefully BOB McGinn stays aboard with the podcast and his occasional column 🙋🏻♂️🎶🎶🎶🎶🎶
In spite of everything you listed above...the 3 and out to start the game (where Josh almost threw 2 INTs on his first two passes)...where Josh looked overwhelmed by the situation...Chiefs first drive averaging 9 ypp and an easy TD...the gift fumble recovery...the quickest three and out ever down 14-10...the terrible Bishop almost INT to a catch (where the ball hits the ground)...to the sick throw to Hollins...to the stuff on the 2 point conversion...(Chiefs had given up 32 of 32 sneaks for 1st downs or TDs to that point this year)....to punt...Buffalo FINALLY committing to our biggest advantage, Cook and this dominating O-Line running the ball v. the weaker KC front 7...TD...punt...to 3rd and 3 by DK86 that looked to have the FD, but was spotted a full yard (!!!!) short, to the decisive no FD call... (then the folded tent D)... followed by Spags not blitzing (!!!!) on 4th and gl at the 4 when Josh hits the TD pass...to the FG drive...the Bills had 7 turnover worthy throws and 4 fumbles (+1 by KC) and we recovered them all. There was a lack of sharpness to this entire effort, of course. Was it playing on the road? Lack of a bye week? Joe Buscaglia thinks Joe Brady's gameplans were discovered ("His played his entire list of greatest hits and the Chiefs knew all the words") and the lack of creativity was the biggest culprit. Btwn that and another defensive collapse against PM15, I see a list of viable suspects.
Despite all of that, all the flaws...all the complaints, all the injuries, all the poor planning, the Chiefs SEEMING domination (FDs: Bills 22, KC 28; total yards Bills 384, Chiefs 377)...the Bills held the ball at their own 42 yd line with all 3 TOs, down 3 with 2:30 left in the game. Legacy time for Josh Allen. I mean, this is the drive the great ones ask for. You get it done here, you cement your legacy. Play before, Josh scrambles for 13 yards to get that FD the moment he sees man to man coverage. The first two plays of the final set of downs actually seal our fate; the throw away by Allen on FD. The tipped ball on 2nd down. The trap is laid, the bait is set. They know it's Josh's time, we comply. Third down: blitz - find the .gif if you can - Cooper is a shoe string tackle from a TD on an all out blitz. It's that close. But 4th and 5 is better than 4th and 10. They already all out blitzed the play prior! It was actually handled well on third down. You can see why O'Cyrus thought they would LIKELY back out of it again. Who all out blitzes two plays in a row!!!! The margins are so thin. Congrats to Spags, who dared, and as we know, fortune tends to favoUr such boldness in the biggest moments.
Despite the lack of talent at WR, the injuries, everything else you wrote about. All of the above would be forgiven...lauded even...if this final drive ends in a TD. (Internet probably breaks if this game goes to OT, which for the Bills should've been the "least best" outcome if they ran the ball on the last drive with James Cook, who was their best player on the field in this game.) Alas, the seeds were sown with our best weapon in this game on the bench for the final drive and the Chiefs denial of our success on early downs of the last series. We had every incentive to run the ball and work the clock down to zeroes before end zone daring. There's always next time (we hope).
"Was it playing on the road?"
One thing I haven't seen noted in all the post-game discourse is that McDermott is now 0-5 on the road in the playoffs as Bills head coach (Allen 0-4).
Any serious look at playoff deficiencies begins and ends with McD's defenses being adequate to very good in the regular season but coming up massively short v. Andy Reid. Joe Marino's podcast (and all-22 film review) had some possible explanations for that: 1/ the Chiefs had 4 weeks to come up for wrinkles for the their AFC opponents 2/ the Bills played man 41% of the time v/ the Chiefs; that number is insane if you think about our average is man <20% of the time AND it's with Benford available (he was not for the last 82% of our snaps). Further: PM15 was 12/13 for 160 v. Man and 6/12 for 60 v. Zone. 3/ Damar Hamlin was exposed as the mediocre talent he's always been, likely made worse by Taylor Rapp's absence and 4/ The Chiefs line and play calling set up Mahomes runs better than in week 11. (He had special praise for Dorian Williams tho - one play was the stuff on 3rd and 1; the other was he raced 45 yds down the field to tackle the punt returner that would've scored a TD.)
I feel like we over performed all season with a lot of deficiencies. Our D was nowhere near as talented as previous years. As you said, we don’t have that elite WR that can step up. No disrespect to Shakir. Coleman was billed as the guy that can catch EVERYTHING and he had more than his fair share of drops this season. Josh, James and Shakir were the offense this year. I was already looking forward to next year before this season began but I was so pleasantly surprised week after week with how we played and how the season turned out that as disappointed as I am, I’m really proud of this team and the way they battled all year. I thank them for another exciting year of Bills football. Sure we aren’t beating the Chiefs but nobody is.
Outstanding analysis again.
Not primarily a Bills fan (Packer fan following BUF more & more in part because of this great site) so won't pretend to feel all of their particular pain. From here it's hard to be as disappointed in this one as some of the past Bills playoff losses. I agree with George's comment, to me if anything this year's team overachieved.
Defensively, Buffalo's talent screams mid-pack NFL D. Milano is a stud, but other than that I don't see any blue chips. Kansas City's defense is definitely more talented than the Bills (so is Baltimore's btw). Obviously there were some ugly drives by the D yesterday, but Mahomes is still Mahomes. Ugly as it's been sometimes this year, he always comes through when it matters. He was still a huge advantage over a largely no-name defense.
The Bills offense was largely excellent all year, but that's also why if anything think they left more on the table yesterday. The D had some no-show drives, but the offense also had several, and that's not counting the two missed 4th downs. Some of the play-calling was definitely questionable. (Cook should've seen the ball more early) And Allen is outstanding, but in these games until the defense is more talented, he needs to be a little bit better.
I don't see reason to blow everything up. Buffalo is trying to get by what is proving to be one of the NFL's greatest dynasties. It's like pro tennis; you keep trying, but maybe you're just in the wrong place at the wrong time when trying to beat Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic. This year they were ultra-close to doing it. But if going to blame the coach, then the GM should be blamed just as much. He's missed on too many high picks, Elam in particular was an absolute liability yesterday that the Chiefs exploited to the max.
So then is canning the coach & GM really worth it with a team this close? I'd say keep adding talent on D, and if the GM can't do it maybe there's the A-1 problem. The short yardage offense also needs to get better and more imaginative; if anything, maybe a change is needed there, or maybe that area is where the QB can tweak his game.
There’s an unmistakable feeling of acceptance after this particular playoff loss to Kansas City. The Bills as we know them were just arriving when they first played the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game; the following year was an abject shock—I’d like to call it a fluke, but that’s not giving the Chiefs enough credit. The 2023 season-ending loss, despite it coming in Orchard Park, was endured by a team that was at one point 6-6.
But another 13-win Buffalo team couldn’t do it in Arrowhead, and that breakthrough victory feels further away than ever.
(This is why, from a fans’ perspective, it may be wise to enjoy the regular season for what it is.)
Which coach is out there who can take us from playing checkers to chess? Is there a potential Steve Kerr or Phil Jackson out there (who would raise our ceiling but may lower our floor)? Unlikely but proven winners: McVay, Bellichek, or someone in college (Smart, Freeman, Leiopold)
Well put, Tyler. Our 1st round picks have been average at best. The jury is still out on Coleman. He looked promising until his injury. This will be a huge offseason.
An interesting read, Tyler. Couldn’t wait to finish one sentence so I could get to the next. The compilation of defensive performances against the Chiefs in the playoffs is McGinn-like. It reinforced you’re already strong argument.
It appears that the Buffalo Bills of the 2220s are the ghosts of the Houston Oilers, who were always trying to kick down the door guarded by the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 1970s sped on. Close, but that’s all it was for the Oilers, and is for the Bills.
Owners and management are going to have to gulp hard and make changes in the coaching direction of the team. The clock is ticking on the remarkable Josh Allen’s career. Buffalo may never have a quarterback like him again.
Two more thoughts:
- I'm not saying it's ever supposed to be easy against a team like the Chiefs, but the Bills made everything hard on themselves—even when they succeeded. Of their four touchdowns, two came on fourth down (one of which required an Olympic gymnast-level balancing act to pull off) and another was a bomb to a receiver with 0.5 yards of separation from an elite DB. They had just so few "easy" gains, which is of course in sharp contrast with Kansas City.
- The Bills have held McDermott, Beane and Allen in the highest regard—rightfully so, I contend. But all the franchises' north stars shared some significant blame in this loss. McDermott for the defense, which as Ty painstakingly notes couldn't deliver in a big game again; Beane for the Xavier Worthy move, which came back to bite the Bills pretty much exactly when we many fans though it might; and Allen for the final drive. He deserves credit for getting the heave off, under massive pressure, that Kincaid probably should have caught—but that entire series of downs is a difficult rewatch. As has been said many times, anyone would have taken the spot the Bills were in with 3:33 to play, down just 3 and holding three timeouts. In a results-based business, it's hard to see Allen come up short again.
P.S. That all being said, Allen put the Bills in a position to convert that must-convert fourth down...just as he did on the infamous sneak/dubious ruling that changed the game. Which sets everything written above and in this story in motion. At some level, I feel as if Allen could not possibly do more, but also could do more, at the same time.
I just read this - validating my in-game thoughts- why in the hell would you keep putting your most valuable asset and best player in harms way unnecessarily? Goes for all QBs:
From Josh Allen Monday: “It was just right at the goal line. The two-point play before halftime, got crunched up a little bit,” Allen said. "I was able to finish the game with just some swelling and stuff today”.
Quick QB sneaks are one thing. Telegraphed sneaks or tush push- use your Tight End. (Someone does this but can’t think of who at the moment.)
When I heard that Cole Bishop would be starting, I began to worry (no disrespect, but he showed that he isn't ready for the really big time yet).
When Kaiir Elam came on, I knew we were going to lose.
Oh well, at least that made the inevitable ending easier to swallow.