McGinn's Top 55: Where's the defense?
Expect the 2024 NFL Draft to be defined by offense. Especially the quarterbacks. Look closely enough, however, and your team may find exactly what it needs on D. Our Bob McGinn examines.
Bob McGinn will bring his draft coverage to Go Long for the third straight spring. His work from 2022 and 2023 can be found in the archives.
Before his nine-part series begins in mid-April, he wraps up his initial Top 55.
By Bob McGinn
Defense always has taken a backseat to offense when it comes to the top echelon of the NFL draft, but this year the imbalance could be record-setting.
Never in the 57-year history of the common draft has there been a time in which there hasn’t been at least two players from the defense land among the first 10 selected. On April 25, it shouldn’t be a surprise if the first nine or 10 players all play offense.
“I think it will,” an executive in personnel said last month. “I really think it will be that way. I don’t see any of those defensive guys being top-10 picks.”
It’s also possible the top five choices won’t include a defensive player. That has happened just five times in the 57 years: 2021, 2012, 2005, 1999 and 1995.
The fewest number of defensive players in the top 20 of a draft was five in 1982. Another personnel man said his best guess was only four defensive players would make the top 20 this year.
“There’s a ton of (defensive) guys but there’s no elite guy,” a third scout said. “A lot of guys with a chance to be elite but there’s a lot of question marks.”
He added: “There’s some intriguing (defensive) guys. These guys you take in the second round are better than Dallas Turner who might go in the first. It’s actually better in the second than the first.
“You’re talking about the quarterbacks, the receivers, the offensive linemen. There’s not a lot of great on the defense.”
The Athletic’s Mike Sando discussed the top of the draft with six NFL executives either during or after the combine. He asked each for a list of the 10 players they most expected to be among the first 10 selections. Of the 60 players mentions, a total of 50, or 83 percent, were from the offense compared to just 10 (17 percent) from the defense.
Receiving the maximum six mentions in The Athletic poll were quarterbacks Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye, and tackle Joe Alt. The five players with five mentions included wide receivers Marvin Harrison, Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze, tackle Olu Fashanu and Turner, the edge rusher.
Tackle JC Latham drew four mentions, edge rusher Jared Verse had three, tight end Brock Bowers had two and a pair of defensive players, edge rusher Chop Robinson and defensive tackle Byron Murphy, each had one.
No running backs, linebackers, cornerbacks or safeties received a mention.
The extreme shortage of blue-chip players on defense might be rare but the trend toward drafting offense first has persisted for years. The majority of the top 10 picks has played offense 43 times in the common draft’s 57 years.
The overriding factor, of course, is the importance of one position on offense. That would be quarterback, which accounted for 29 of the 100 top-five choices in the last 20 drafts. The offense had a 62 percent share of the top-five selections in the last 20 drafts compared to 58 percent of the top-10 picks and 50.8 percent of the top-20 picks.
The following is an early guess at the 23 defensive players that might fall among the first 55 players drafted. Last week, the top 32 offensive players were listed.
This projected Top 55 will serve as a run-up to my NFL Draft Series, which I’ve assembled annually since 1985. That nine-part series can be accessed only at GoLongTD.com. It will begin about 10 days before the draft, which is scheduled April 25-27.
Personnel people offered their assessments of players to me last month before the start of workouts at the Combine. Their comments were based almost exclusively on their exposure to players both in live looks and tape study.
My rankings, arranged in order within each position, were influenced to an extent by results from the Combine. For example, 40-yard dash times will play a critical role in stacking prospects at cornerback and wide receiver, among other positions. But remember, when these scouts were interviewed, they had almost no verified 40 times on seniors and no verified heights and weights on underclassmen.
These rankings can and will change significantly over the next 6 ½ weeks as teams attend and monitor developments at pro days and obtain missing 40 times, testing results, medical information and character evaluation. Heights were rounded to the half-inch; quarter measurements were rounded down (6-2 ¼ to 6-2, 6-2 ¾ to 6-2 ½).
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DEFENSE (23)
Defensive linemen (5)
Byron Murphy, Texas (6-0 ½, 297): Posted the third-fastest 40 time among the defensive linemen (4.87). “His athletic ability and quickness are amazing … off the charts,” one scout said. “Plays his ass off. He’s destructive. The two-gap stuff is not really his deal but he’ll drop a knee in there, he’ll hang in there. Pass rush, his power and explosiveness through the gap, that’s his deal. In this modern NFL, with all the throwing, he’s going to be a problem. I like him better than (Calijah) Kancey from last year, who was another undersized guy. Much better player. Stronger. Kancey kind of came on a little because he worked out like a phenom, but I don’t care how this guy worked out.” His vertical jump of 33 inches ranked second at the position. Bench-pressed 28 times. “Disciplined both run and pass,” another scout said. “Excellent straight-line power pass rusher. Thing that worries me is he’s going to be 6-0 and weigh only 300. You will have to team him up with a (much bigger) guy. Can Murphy play square? Yes, I think he can play square.” Arms were just 32 3/8 inches, hands were 10 ¼ inches. “High character,” said a third scout. “He’s sudden, flexible, plays on his feet. Hands and feet work well together. Got pass rush for an inside guy. He’s fairly strong for his size but he’s more of a movement-oriented scheme player, of which there are many nowadays. He’s the best one.”