'He’ll be in the Mahomes category:' NFL scouts & execs are loving Jayden Daniels
'He’ll be in the Mahomes category:' NFL scouts & execs are loving Jayden Daniels
Was the LSU quarterback the superior prospect all along? Bob McGinn chats with NFL scouts around the NFL all about the man who has the Washington Commanders on the move. (They didn't hold back.)
By Bob McGinn
This is the continuation of a 2023 series looking at active players and their current situation vis a vis what it was entering the NFL draft. The comments from personnel men were made in the months leading up to the draft for my NFL draft Series, which dates to 1985. Scouting football prospects is an inexact science, especially when it comes to off-the-field considerations. It has/ been said that no two evaluators view a player exactly the same way.
The Chicago Bears made it appear as if Caleb Williams was the only legitimate candidate for the No. 1 pick. Some in the media painted a similar picture.
NFL executives did generally view Williams as the top pick in the draft. But they saw LSU’s Jayden Daniels as a close second and franchise prospect in his own right while at the same time assigning much greater risk to the USC quarterback.
On Monday Night Football, Daniels was so spectacular in the Commanders’ 38-33 victory over the Bengals in Cincinnati that now, just three games into their rookie seasons, it’s impossible not to at least wonder if the Bears made another massive mistake at the quarterback position.
“I said the margin between Williams and him was razor-thin,” one personnel man said of his pre-draft conclusions. “Last night was just a wow moment. And Williams does not look good. Looks scattered. That O-line is a mess, but I thought he was set up good with playmakers.”
Daniels isn’t playing behind a top-notch offensive line, either, and his teammates at the skill positions are average. His passer rating of 111.8 ranks fourth in the league whereas Williams is 28th at 65.3. Daniels has yet to commit a turnover and is completing an NFL-best 80.3 percent of his passes. The rushing totals are 171 yards and three touchdowns for Daniels, 67 for Williams.
“Wow … wow,” another executive said. “I thought he was going to be good. I didn’t think he’d be that good. He’ll keep getting better. He’ll be in the (Patrick) Mahomes category.
“There’s quarterbacks that can carry a team. There’s quarterbacks that can win with a team. There’s quarterbacks that can’t win anything. I think (Daniels) will carry a team, yes. Caleb has a little better team than the (Commanders) and he’s not carrying anything. He’s struggling. He was a little better this week (against Indianapolis).”
In April, I conducted a series of polls with football executives. In one, 16 were asked to choose the best player in the draft. Tied with six votes were Williams and wide receiver Marvin Harrison; tied for third with two votes were Daniels and wide receiver Malik Nabers.
In another poll, voters were asked to identify their favorite player to scout in the draft. Daniels led with three; eleven other players received at least one-half vote but Williams wasn’t one of them.
Part of the quarterback-specific poll included 15 scouts ID’ing the player with the best chance to bust. Bo Nix led with four votes whereas Williams tied for second with three. Interestingly, Daniels was the only one of the top six not to get a vote.
When 16 scouts agreed to rank the quarterbacks on a 1-2-3-4-5 basis, Williams dominated with 13 first-place votes compared to three for Daniels. The point totals were 75 for Williams, 62 for Daniels, 45 for Drake Maye, 33 for J.J. McCarthy, 20 for Michael Penix and five for Nix.
Anticipating Williams would finish No. 1, I also polled 15 personnel men in which they were asked whether they’d take Daniels as a prospect over the 10 quarterback prospects taken atop drafts since 2010. The admiration for Daniels, a player rated in spring 2023 as a seventh-round choice/priority free agent by the Blesto scouting combine that counts seven NFL teams as members, was remarkable, to say the least.
He captured 58 percent of the vote, beating the former No. 1’s by a composite margin of 87-63.
Defeating Daniels were Andrew Luck (15-0), Joe Burrow (12-3), Cam Newton (11-4) and Trevor Lawrence (9-6).
Defeated by Daniels were Sam Bradford (11-4), Jared Goff (12-3), Baker Mayfield (12-3), Kyler Murray (12-3), Bryce Young (12-3) and Jameis Winston (15-0).
This week, one personnel man declined to say how Daniels would rank as a prospect compared to Josh Allen.
“He’s an established guy,” the scout said. “It’s not fair. (Compare) him to the second-year guys. (C.J.) Stroud, Will Levis, (Anthony) Richardson. I would still take Daniels over Stroud. I would consider taking him over (Joe) Burrow.
“Right now in this game it’s tough to be a stationary quarterback. Burrow’s not stationary. (Justin) Herbert can move around enough. But this guy (Daniels) is rare.”
Back at Paycor Stadium, they still remember Daniels’ 55-yard bomb to Terry McLaurin, the gutsy fourth-and-4 dart for 9 yards to Zach Ertz with 4 ½ minutes left and, three plays later, the third-and-7 rainbow to McLaurin with safety Geno Stone in his face for the clinching 27-yard touchdown.
“Even the first couple games he looked confident, he looked in control, he looked poised,” said a scout. “It was, like, ‘OK, I’ve just gotta do what I’ve gotta do.” Whereas last night he showed that all to a whole other level. That throw he made, the long one, was just incredible.
“What he’s doing is the stuff that won him the Heisman.”
Subscribers can read much, much more below on how the NFL views Jayden Daniels from Bob McGinn.
Miss this week’s “Ty & Bob Pod?” We dissect the NFC North.
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BASICS
Height: 6-3 ½. Weight: 210 (scaled 185 for scouts in March 2021, 205 in March 2023 and 210 in March 2024). Age: 23. From: San Bernardino, Calif.
40-yard dash: NA (declined to run at combine or pro day). Vertical jump: NA. Broad jump: NA. Wonderlic test: NA (declined to take). Arms: 32 ½ inches. Hands: 9 3/8 inches.