Hall of Fame pits greats against each other

Selector Jason Cole reveals his annual survey of 421 current/former NFL coaches, execs, and players right here. As he writes? There's a glitch to the new process that'll keep many players waiting.

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Longtime NFL scribe Jason Cole takes the pen here at Go Long to give you an inside look at who may get that Canton call soon… and the Hall’s inherent flaw. The new format is going to keep some greats out this year, and beyond.Miss his collaboration with Matt Schaub? The former NFL quarterback detailed his vision for the NFLPA last summer.

By Jason Cole

Since becoming a Pro Football Hall of Fame selector in 2013, I annually survey hundreds of current and former NFL coaches, executives, and players about the 15 Modern Era finalists. This year, 421 people answered my survey, including 27 Hall of Famers, 40 current/former NFL head coaches, and 10 general managers. This is a breakdown of the results of the survey for the Class of 2026. The results will be announced February 5:

Player, Votes (Percentage support)

*1. Larry Fitzgerald 353 (83.9)

*2. Drew Brees 348 (82.6)

3. Luke Kuechly 188 (44.6)

4. Adam Vinatieri 159 (37.8)

*5. Frank Gore 126 (29.9)

6. Terrell Suggs 117 (27.8)

*7. Jason Witten 116 (27.6)

8. Eli Manning 114 (27.1)

9. Willie Anderson 84 (20.0)

9. Darren Woodson 84 (20.0)

11. Reggie Wayne 74 (17.6)

12. Marshal Yanda 71 (16.9)

13. Torry Holt 69 (16.3)

14. Jahri Evans 28 (6.7)

*15. Kevin Williams 19 (4.5)

Asterisk denotes first-time or first-year eligible candidate.

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Larry Fitzgerald and Drew Brees are likely about to be unwitting villains.

They are about to keep another highly honored former NFL star out of the Pro Football Hall of Fame this year.

There’s no actual blame here because, as mentioned, this is unintentional. Fitzgerald and Brees probably don’t even understand what’s happening. But it’s part of a voting system that the well-intended people who run the Hall devised last year. It’s a voting system with some unfortunate unintended consequences.

To put it another way, if you’re one of the many people who believe Eli Manning deserves to be in the Hall, put down your popcorn.

It’s going to be awhile. If ever.

Fitzgerald and Brees are the clear top candidates to make the Hall among the 15 Modern Day finalists up for selection this year. The results of the selections, which will happen this month, will be announced on Feb. 5 during Super Bowl week.

I say they are the clear top candidates based on extensive research I do each year. For the 14 years I have been a Hall of Fame selector, I have done a survey of NFL players, coaches, scouts, executives, and even referees to measure who deserves to get in. The survey is simple. I ask each voter to name a maximum of five candidates (the maximum number that can be elected in any year) and then tabulate the results.

This year, after surveying 421 people, Fitzgerald and Brees were far and away the top vote getters with each over 82 percent. Next was Luke Kuechly at 44.5 percent. After that was a group of six players between 20 and 37 percent, including the likes of Frank Gore, Jason Witten, and Manning. Overall, the slate of 15 candidates has at least 12 players who seem like extremely strong candidates to make the Hall based on their resumes.

In the years I have done this survey, no one with the type of support Fitzgerald and Brees received has ever been turned down for selection. They’re good, but if you’re a person who likes to bet, there’s a very strong chance most of the others will wait years to make it, if ever. That’s because top vote-getters like Fitzgerald and Brees can also have a negative impact on other candidates.

This is the way it works. Each of the 15 candidates is discussed and then the group is narrowed to 10. Then the group is narrowed to seven. In the past, the group of 10 was narrowed to five and then there was a simple up-down vote on each of the five.

With a group of seven, each of the 50 selectors gets to vote for up to five candidates on a secret ballot. Essentially, there are 250 votes that are available and the most any one candidate can receive is 50. A candidate must get at least 80 percent (40 votes) or must be among the top three vote-getters to gain entrance.

In other words, at least three and at most five candidates will be elected each year.

The problem is that every vote a candidate gets above 40 is one fewer vote another candidate can get. In this case, it’s fair to assume that both Fitzgerald and Brees will get close to 50 votes each. If they each get the full 50, that’s 100 combined and it means there are only 150 votes remaining among the five candidates. That’s an average of 30 each among a group that figures to be largely indistinguishable.

For example, is Witten more worthy than former star pass rusher Terrell Suggs (139 sacks) or kicker Adam Vinatieri, whose combination of clutch kicks and accuracy during his time are the stuff of legend. How do those guys stack up with Manning, Kuechly or Gore?

Getting to 40 votes is really hard for any single candidate when so many players split the vote. Getting more than one is almost impossible. Last year, only three Modern Day candidates (Antonio Gates, Jared Allen, and Eric Allen) were selected and that class was not even close to as top heavy as this class.

Looking down the line, the top-heavy nature of the selection process doesn’t get any easier. The 2027 class will feature Rob Gronkowski, Adrian Peterson, Richard Sherman, Ben Roethlisberger, and what will likely be the weird case of Antonio Brown. In 2028, Tom Brady, J.J. Watt, and Ndamukong Suh will be part of a strong slate. In 2029, Aaron Donald, Julio Jones, and Jason Kelce come up.

This is a situation where guys like Reggie Wayne and Torry Holt, who each were considered very close to making it, might not only wait — they may get knocked off the ballot altogether. As for Manning, a guy who was the subject of an extremely lively and long debate last year in his first year of eligibility, it’s almost impossible to imagine him getting selected amid this competition.

All of this leads to an obvious question: Why did this happen?

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Over the past few years, there has been an increasing level of angst among current Hall of Famers about the number of players who are getting in. That angst has been expressed publicly by the likes of Deion Sanders — although he is hardly alone in that group — and the angst was heightened in 2021 by a number of factors.

First, the 2021 class was a double class because the 2020 class went in at the same time due to Covid cancelling the 2020 induction ceremony. Second, the 2020 class featured a “Centennial” class of 15 coaches, contributors, and senior selection. Suddenly, the once-exclusive looking classes of six to eight candidates looked more like an office Christmas party, complete with significant others.

That led to a lot of grousing by Hall of Famers who had been elected before. Some of them were privately very annoyed, including remarks like, “How did that guy get in?”

In response to that grousing, the Hall came up with the current idea that created a class of only four people last year (Gates, Allen, Allen, and senior candidate Sterling Sharpe). However, it left out guys like Kuechly (NFL Defensive Player of the Year, NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award, selection to the NFL All-Decade team for the 2010s, and seven first- or second-team All-Pro selections in a nine-year career) and Yanda (All-Decade for the 2010s and seven first- or second-team All-Pro selections in a 13-year career). Each was considered a strong candidate for selection last year.

Now, they could easily be waiting until the end of the decade.

And while there is always some reasonable argument for having a more selective Hall of Fame in any sport, this correction seems to be an overreaction based on the opinion of many voters. Moreover, it’s not really addressing the core problem identified by several people who think the Hall has put too much emphasis on Senior candidates.

Instead, the Hall has created a system that may backlog more deserving candidates than ever before by, in a significant way, pitting one deserving play against another.