Bob McGinn's All-NFC North Midseason Team: Unfiltered analysis from scouts
Which quarterback is playing best? Who's been sluggish on D? Who are the unheralded studs up front? Scouts and execs across the NFL open up their notebooks to our Bob McGinn.
By Bob McGinn
If the Detroit Lions still had Aidan Hutchinson in their lineup they would be the obvious choice not only to reach the 59th Super Bowl but to win it.
But they don’t thanks to Hutchinson’s fractured leg, and for a replacement Tuesday’s trading deadline brought Za’Darius Smith from the Cleveland Browns in exchange for a pair of mid-round draft choices.
“A lot of their chances will depend how well Smith can jell with the rest of that group,” an executive in personnel said at mid-week. “It’s hard to win if you can’t get pressure on the quarterback. That’s why Smith is really important in this whole deal. They’ve got players tilted everywhere; they just don’t have a pass rush.”
The executive has worked for one of the four teams that Smith has played for in the span of seven years. That’s a checkered resume for a player with 65 career sacks and three Pro Bowl appearances.
Smith’s career never really got off the ground in rusher-rich Baltimore. He was absolutely brilliant for Green Bay in 2019, highly effective the next year and then played just two games (one in the playoffs) around back problems in 2021 before moving on.
Released by the Packers in March 2022, Smith posted 9 ½ sacks for Minnesota in the first eight games and one-half sack in the last nine.
The Vikings had seen enough, shipping him to Cleveland for almost the identical similar compensation that the Browns obtained from Detroit.
“It’s either gonna be where he disappears real fast or he’s going to go, ‘I’m gonna have to do this a little bit differently because they’re watching me,’” the personnel man said. “A, he’s playing for another new contract. B, he’s got to prove that he isn’t what everybody says he is. He’s got to know what everybody’s saying about him. You can’t be a premier pass rusher and keep ending up on different teams. It’s always been the same. He's going to have a big game the first week or two and then he slowly starts to disappear.”
The Lions didn’t just lose Hutchinson, possibly the NFL’s finest edge rusher. They lost their other starter outside, Marcus Davenport, to season-ending triceps injury in Game 3.
While coordinator Aaron Glenn has done a masterful job asking more of his secondary at the risk of more blitzing, and the interior rushers have picked up some of the slack, the Lions understood they probably couldn’t win it all with a bunch of no-names on the edge.
Enter Smith, who’s 32 and in his 10th season.
Injuries have affected Smith for years. He isn’t a well-conditioned athlete, either. But all Detroit needs from him is some hellacious rushes outside and over a guard in sub during the next three months.
I haven’t seen Smith much in Cleveland. But I broke down every game that he played for Green Bay and saw him many times for the Vikings.
If the NFL championship really rests on Smith’s shoulders, I decided to dig out my end-of-year summations of the Packers in 2019, 2020 and 2021. Memories fade. Assessments written then stand the test of time.
Playing 84.6% of the defensive snaps in 2019 and 83.9% in 2020, Smith by my count amassed 108 pressures in the two seasons, including 29 sacks. Playoff games were included.
After the 2020 season, I wrote: “Unlike Preston Smith, Za’Darius has rather short arms (32 5/8 inches). Still, he comes up with two or three red-letter plays each week. He is crafty with his hands, slippery with his shoulders and pounces when he senses weakness. His body is starting to break down, his 4.78 speed has diminished and he’s only good for half a dozen or so violent bull rushes each game. Above all, he knows how to finish.”
At the same time, I recalled the negative sides of Smith that obviously were known and analyzed to a shrewd organization like the Lions.
In January 2020: “Za’Darius brought a physical presence to the front that was somewhat reminiscent of the brooding, intimidating SLB Wayne Simmons in the mid-1990s. Thus, it was inexplicable to see him lying on the field seven different times with apparent injuries that required the service of the medical staff but never sidelined him for more than a handful of plays … When the ball was past him he usually shut it down and wouldn’t chase.”
In January 2021: “His value against the run is barely adequate. It’s almost like his explosion/effort dips the instant run appears. He’ll accept stalemates with tight ends rather than expend the energy to dismiss them. Don’t even ask him to pursue downfield or recklessly throw his body into high-contact situations. Even with a four-year, $66 million contract, selling out is non-negotiable with this veteran.”
In January 2022: “Back problems dogged him before the decision was made to operate on his back after an 18-snap stint in the opener. Smith came off injured reserve for the playoff game and was in for 19 plays against the Niners. He went right over the top of left guard Laken Tomlinson for a sack on his first snap in four months. Didn’t play the run well against San Francisco but he never really has in Green Bay. Yet, those 19 snaps were critical for Smith because they served as a reminder to the front office that he’s still able to get after the quarterback.”
Campbell acknowledged that the Lions did their homework on Smith, both as a player and as a person. Smith, who scored 9 and 7 on two cracks at the Wonderlic test, should sense immediately that Campbell and the Lions need him but don’t need him. It’s a locker room that polices itself, and if more’s required Campbell would appear the ideal coach to get Smith with the program in the quest for a ring.
ICYMI, Go Long sat down with Za’Darius Smith for this story during his Vikings days:
It has been 14 years since the NFC North sent a representative to the Super Bowl. In the game’s 58-year history the Packers have played in it five times, the Vikings four and the Bears two.
Based on extensive interviews this week with executives in personnel well-versed on the four teams, the following is my midseason All-NFC North team.
Of particular interest might be the breakdown of the 22 first-team players on the offense and the defense. The Lions ended up with more than half of the 22 (12), followed by the Vikings with five, the Bears with four and the Packers with one.
With home losses to the Lions (7-1) and Vikings (6-2), the Packers (6-3) might look like a darkhorse. Yet, one executive maintained that the scariest team in the North, which hasn’t had more than two playoff teams since 2001 (it had four entrants in 1994 and ’97), was Green Bay.
“I think they have everything,” the scout said. “If Love gets healthy before December then I think everybody’s going to be in trouble because their defense is starting to play better. They’re loaded with young talent. I think that young talent will be able to play on the road.
“I am high on Campbell because the team has steadily gotten better. But I really think the team to worry about is Green Bay if Love gets healthy and stops turning the ball over.”
One final note. The Lions, who won the division last year for the first time since 1993, have never won a division championship in back-to-back seasons. Divisional play was initiated in 1967.
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ALL-NFC NORTH DIVISION MIDSEASON TEAM
OFFENSE
Wide receivers: JUSTIN JEFFERSON (Minn), AMON-RA ST. BROWN (Det) and D.J. MOORE (Chi). Others, in order: Jayden Reed (GB), Rome Odunze (Chi), Romeo Doubs (GB), Jordan Addison (Minn), Jameson Williams (Det), Christian Watson (GB), Keenan Allen (Chi), Jalen Nailor (Minn), Dontayvion Wicks (GB), Kalif Raymond (Det).
Jefferson, St. Brown and Moore were in the same order at this time last season. “Jefferson is probably 1, 2 or 3 in the league,” one scout said. “There’s nothing he can’t do. He’s taken on more of a leadership role because (Sam) Darnold is kind of a quiet personality. I think you can see maturity in him overall to go with him consistently refining his skills and adding to them.” St. Brown and Jefferson are tied for the division lead in receptions with 48. “He embodies that team, the way he plays with toughness and competitiveness,” another scout said. “Just a dog on the field.” Moore’s production is down. “He’s gotten a lot of double coverage,” a third scout said. Reed plays all over the field, including the backfield. “He’s their (best), easily,” a fourth scout said referring to the Packers’ wideouts. “He makes big plays. Just has that knack. Good hands, good routes, just a good player.” Odunze, the ninth player drafted in April, leads the Bears in receiving yards (391). “He keeps getting better as he gains experience,” one scout said. “Had a couple drops. I’ve got no problem with him.” Doubs, a crafty route runner, and Wicks have had too many drops. Watson remains the Packers’ home-run threat. “He doesn’t have the wiggle that the (Packers’) other guys have,” said one scout. “His undeniable trait is he can run. It changes the way people play the Packers.” Addison and Williams are “very similar,” one scout said. “Addison’s not as fast but very similar in the maturity factors and all that stuff. Addison is a solid No. 2. With Jefferson, as long as you’re solid that’s all you need.” Repeated issues off the field threaten Williams’ career. “He’s a big play waiting to happen,” one scout said. “The improvement he’s shown in three years has been vast. This year he started to catch the ball better and there was improvement as a route runner. It’s just all the stuff that’s out there. He has to make better decisions.” Allen’s 11th season has been disappointing. “He doesn’t look as quick or explosive as he did with the Chargers,” one scout said. “Not getting separation. Last year of his deal. Based on that, I can’t see them trying to get a new deal done.” Nailor, in his third season, has developed into a respectable No. 3.
Left tackle: CHRISTIAN DARRISAW (Minn). Others, in order: Taylor Decker (Det), Braxton Jones (Chi), Rasheed Walker (GB).